Boris Johnson’s vacated Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat is one of three up for grabs next week, but the contest for the west London constituency is leading to frayed nerves among both the Conservatives and Labour.
Of the three byelections for Tory-held seats on 20 July, Labour’s best chance of winning appears to be in the “metroland” constituency, which was sprinkled with Johnson’s political stardust for more than eight years, before his rapid fall from grace.
Recent polling has put the party’s Danny Beales eight points ahead of his Tory rival. But a rearguard action by the Conservatives is seeking to frame the contest as a mini-referendum on opposition to the London mayor Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to rest of the city.
One Labour source said: “I go through days where I think we are doomed, and then days where I think we are actually going to do this. But it’s going to be close and I don’t think it is going to be a huge victory for either party.”
Ultimately, the source believes the Tories are overplaying the Ulez card and that concern about it will be trumped by worries about the cost of living and interest rate rises, especially among younger families, who have changed the seat’s demographics.
The ethnically diverse, leave-voting constituency, home to a significant number of retirees, and with pockets of deprivation and prosperity, would be a particular fillip for Keir Starmer’s project.
On a sunny lunchtime this week, the different prospects for Labour were reflected by two voters, as the the frontbencher Anneliese Dodds joined party activists canvassing newbuild blocks near South Ruislip.
Not long into the canvassing, an encounter that might have come straight out of central casting for a Starmer campaign clip unfolded when a young woman passing by stopped to engage Dodds in conversation. Born in 2003, a pivotal year of the last Labour government, the voter was a recently recruited police officer who was eager to share her views about public services.
“I always wanted to join the police and, when I did, it was after Sarah Everard’s death, so I’m conscious that there is so much responsibility,” she said. “Politics is something I’m really interested in and I keep in touch with what the parties are offering. I’m fortunate in my own background, but I’ve seen enough to come across people who really are struggling and that’s what’s important to me.”
Minutes earlier, the anger among some at Ulez expansion – the plan to expand the £12.50 daily charge for motor vehicles that do not meet the required emissions standards to all London boroughs from 29 August – was underlined by Carol Bell.
“I won’t be voting Labour, no, and it’s because of Ulez charge that’s coming. We’ve just got rid of our car, because it’s just not going to be worth it. It’s not ideal, but we’ll just have to get on the bus I suppose and rely on friends,” said the 63-year-old, on her way home to be with her husband, who has dementia.
In a heavily car-reliant constituency – where London meets the home counties and there are farms as well as tube stations – the anti-Ulez message is one that continues to be hammered home by the Tory candidate, Steve Tuckwell, a local councillor and business consultant, in his campaign literature and in targeted Facebook advertising.
Beales’ response – which puts him at odds with Khan – has been to call for a delay to the expansion, a position his campaign organisers reminded canvassers about on Monday as they prepared to knock on doors where “Ulez might come up”.
More positively, they were to emphasise that Beales, a councillor and charity worker, was a local resident and had a backstory that included being a single parent and someone who had experienced homelessness.
Important, too, was what they described as his record of “delivery” – a reference to a local police station in Uxbridge that was saved from closure after Khan intervened.
During a pep-talk, Dodds told the canvassers: “You know how difficult this byelection is for us, a 7,000 majority in a place that people said could never ever be Labour. But we are building in a place where the Tories are too scared to show their face, even though they are pumping out literature that doesn’t have the word Conservative on it.”
With the stakes high for both parties, and the results of three byelections coming at the same time, it is perhaps unsurprising that media access to the candidates in Uxbridge and elsewhere is being limited.
But Andrew Boff, an independent-minded Conservative member of the London assembly who was born in Uxbridge, said: “We may lose all the byelections apart from Uxbridge, and looking at things that’s the most likely outcome.
“It gets to the point where we know we are going to be bashed. We’ve had a bloody awful couple of years and it’s only really been our own fault in many ways. Boris [Johnson] was awful and Liz Truss as well, while Rishi [Sunak] is now sort of struggling to get things in shape.
“But I think the Ulez thing will be interesting, and really is a problem for Labour because of the way it hits the worse-off in many ways. I don’t think you’re going to see Sadiq Khan campaigning in Uxbridge any time.”
In Uxbridge town centre, there was some evidence that Beales had cut through. In her hairdressing salon a short walk from the area’s art deco station, Molood Gaykhareh could not quite remember the candidate’s name, but she was planning to vote for “the young man” from Labour.
“I liked Boris. A lot of people did, but I’ve been here for 20 years and it’s tough these days,” she said. “Small businesses are struggling and the government needs to help. So I think it’s time for a change.”
