It's an Aussie favourite and a staple at the footy, but the price of the humble meat pie may be about to rise.
Bakeries say a "perfect storm" of rising energy bills, transport costs, wage increases and now a global shortage of wheat is forcing many to pass costs onto consumers.
It could mean staples like bread, noodles, meat pies and items that are reliant on wheat products will be affected in coming months.
Toowoomba bakery operator Rehannan Theodosis said she and her husband Geordy had to increase the cost of pies by 20 cents earlier this year but were trying to hold off any further rises.
"We'd like to hold off as best as much as we can because it's hard enough for people," Ms Theodosis said.
Ms Theodosis said she had been "freaking out" over the increasing cost of supplies.
"We're the ones that are right on the front line with the customers, so they don't see … everything's going up for us," she said.
The pinch was also being felt at Merino Bakery in Longreach, which until recently boasted the cheapest pies in outback Queensland.
"We will have a price increase because everything has gone up — between flour, wheat and the mince price," co-owner Chloe Martyr said.
"In the last five years we haven't put up any prices but after COVID and drought, we'll have to."
What's driving the price hike?
Russia and Ukraine typically supply about 30 per cent of the world's wheat, but experts say the region's conflict has blocked exports from major ports since the start of the year.
"We've effectively lost a huge chunk of the world's supplies of wheat, because you just can't get wheat out of Ukraine and the Black Sea is blocked, effectively," Thomas Elders Markets analyst Andrew Whitelaw said.
The war, combined with the pandemic and supply chain woes, has resulted in the global price of wheat increasing by almost 75 per cent in the past year, from $320 per tonne in June 2021 to $561 per tonne in June 2022.
Ukraine is also responsible for producing about 50 per cent of the world's sunflower oil and 20 per cent of its barley.
The shortage has been felt most acutely in countries that consume high quantities of grain, like China, India and Egypt.
It has also sparked fears that a global food crisis could soon be on the cards.
"These countries have huge populations … it's really hard to start substituting staples … so they will be severely impacted," Mr Whitelaw said.
"Egypt, for instance, is the world's largest importer of wheat and has been largely reliant on Russia and Ukraine for a long time.
Small businesses in firing line
The National Baking Industry Association said mum-and-dad operations were struggling to absorb growing overhead costs.
"The price of raw materials has gone up, there's just been a wage rise for minimum wage earners, so all of that has increased costs on small businesses," president Mark Dennien said.
"The average bread shop can't afford to absorb the costs and stay viable, so they have to pass those costs on."
Earlier this month, Coles and Woolworths announced a freeze on the prices of essential items until the end of the year to help consumers with the increased cost of living.
But Mr Dennien said small suppliers would be left worse off from temporary price freezes.
"Someone's going to pay somewhere down the line," he said.
Grain price a boost to farmers
The increase in the global price of grain has presented an opportunity for Australian growers, who are stepping in to fill the void.
"It's created demand for export from other parts of world and Australia is positioned pretty well to fill that demand and take advantage of this situation," Warra barley producer Brendan Taylor said.
Mr Whitelaw said Australian producers would feel the impact, particularly those needing to feed livestock.
"About 10 to 15 per cent of a [bread] loaf is driven by the price of wheat itself, so whilst the price can go up, the overall impact on that bread price is not huge," he said.
"It's other products that use wheat, like pigs, chickens or eggs … that will see a much bigger impact because it's such a higher proportion of the overall cost of producing that product."
