On February 28, 2022, the National Statistical Office (NSO) released India’s GDP data for Q3 of 2021-22 along with Second Advance Estimates (SAE) for 2021-22. Post COVID-19, the normalisation of the Indian economy has now been disturbed by the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Growth performance
In the COVID-19 year of 2020-21, both real GDP and GVA contracted by minus 6.6% and minus 4.8%, respectively. The NSO’s SAE show that real GDP and GVA growth are estimated to recover to 8.9% and 8.3%, respectively, in 2021-22. Despite this improvement, the magnitude of real GDP at ₹147.7 lakh crore in 2021-22 is only marginally higher than the corresponding level of ₹145.2 lakh crore in 2019-20. The NSO’s GDP data highlights that in 2021-22, the nominal GDP growth at 19.4% is significantly higher than the real GDP growth due to an inordinately high implicit price deflator (IPD)-based inflation rate of 9.6%. Monetary policy authorities need to take note of this.
