Scientists are likely to record a global average temperature of more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels over the next five years, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has said. There is a 66% chance of this temperature being recorded at least once between now and 2027 - which would mark the first time in human history.
The WMO also said there is a 98% chance of the hottest year on record being broken during that time. If a 1.5C temperature rise is recorded, it would not mean the target set during the Paris Agreement would be lost as the global average temperature would need to exceed 1.5C many more times before the climate can be said to have permanently warmed to that level.
Dr Leon Hermanson of the Met Office Hadley Centre, one of the experts who led the report, said: "We have never crossed 1.5C. The current record is 1.28C. It's very likely we're going to exceed that, we might even reach 1.5C - it's more likely than not that we will. It's not this long term warming that the Paris Agreement talks about, but it is an indication that as we start having these years, with 1.5C happening more and more often, we're getting closer and closer to having the actual long-term climate being on that threshold."
