Recent economic data has raised concerns about a possible recession in the United States. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped below 3.8% amid global market turmoil fueled by fears of an economic slowdown. U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted, with major indices showing a decline in demand and new business.
The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm Rule, an indicator historically associated with U.S. recessions. While other recession indicators have been inconsistent this cycle, the inverted yield curve, a traditional predictor, has shown signs of a slowdown.
