Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have hit a record high in 2024, and there's still no sign that they've peaked, scientists reported.
The researchers found that humans dumped 41.2 billion tons (37.4 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in 2024, a 0.8% increase from 2023.
When added to the emissions created by land-use changes, such as deforestation, a total of 45.8 billion tons (41.6 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide was emitted in 2024. At this rate, the researchers estimate there's a 50% chance that global warming will consistently exceed the 1.5 Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming target set by the Paris Agreement within roughly six years. They published their findings Nov. 13 in the journal Earth Systems Science Data.
"The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," study lead author Pierre Friedlingstein, a professor of climate science at Exeter University in the U.K., said in a statement. "Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals — and world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels."
Released on the second day of the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Azerbaijan, the Global Carbon Budget report highlights the urgent need for rapid decarbonization in a year that has witnessed unprecedented storms, floods and unusually warm sea temperatures that could lead to ocean current collapse.
To achieve the Paris Agreement target, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 45% by 2030 and be slashed to net zero by 2050.
However, by the end of this year, emissions from oil and gas are projected to have increased by 0.9% and 2.4%, respectively, compared with last year, while emissions from coal, once thought to have peaked in 2014, will climb by 0.2%. Emissions are predicted to increase in India by 4.6% and in China by 0.2% while decreasing in the European Union by 3.8% and the U.S. by 0.6%. The rest of the world's emissions are estimated to climb by 1.1%.
Yet in spite of the bleak findings, the authors note that some action has been taken to shift economies away from fossil fuels.
"Despite another rise in global emissions this year, the latest data shows evidence of widespread climate action, with the growing penetration of renewables and electric cars displacing fossil fuels, and decreasing deforestation emissions in the past decades confirmed for the first time," co-author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate science at the University of East Anglia in the U.K., said in the statement.
Yet, on their own, these incremental changes will not produce the dramatic shift required to halve global CO2 output by the end of the decade.
In addition, roughly half of greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere are currently absorbed by ocean and land sinks. Yet to achieve net-zero emissions, untested solutions such as widespread carbon capture will also be needed, according to the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
"Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts," Friedlingstein said.
