The first Grand Tour of the season is almost upon us, with several big-name favourites and outside contenders ready to race for three full weeks in May.
Foundations have been being laid for months, right from the depths of winter, and the early-season warm-up races are now all but out of the way. With the exception of a few final tune-ups, the pink jersey hopefuls are now race ready.
Here, Cyclingnews takes a look at the principal candidates to lift the Trofeo Senza Fine in Rome on May 28, along with the form they're raking to the start in the Abruzzo region on May 6.
As with the Tour de France, we have ranked the riders by form, looking at their results and performances from the season so far. The order is not necessarily a reflection of who's likeliest to win the race but who's looking best as we get started.
1. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep)
- Age: 23
- Grand Tour experience: 2022 Vuelta winner, 2nd Giro appearance
- 2023 results: 1st Liège-Bastogne-Liège, 2nd Volta a Catalunya, 1st UAE Tour, 7th Vuelta a San Juan
He may have hidden his recent training files from Strava but, with another sensational solo victory at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Remco Evenepoel proved that he is well on track for the Giro. The world champion once again skipped away from everyone on La Redoute and even when Tom Pidcock latched back on he showed the brute nature of his strength by dropping him in the saddle, on the false flat. It must have been a humbling experience for the young Briton, and even more so for the rest of the contenders who came together into groups – albeit disorganised ones – but only slipped further and further back.
The absence of Tadej Pogačar was then the great what-if of Liège, in terms of the race as a spectacle but also in terms of assessing Evenepoel's form. Beating the man of the season so far would have painted the Belgian as the definitive man to beat at the Giro but nevertheless he still showed he is pretty much where he needs to be.
For reference, look back to last year and the way Evenepoel dropped down from his various stints of altitude training to dominate the Clásica San Sebastián in the build-up to the Vuelta a España. After separate stints on Mount Teide and another virtuoso solo at Liège, he's following the familiar format, with one final tune-up now at the altitude-controlled sea-level hotel in south east Spain.
Evenepoel dominated the time trial at that Vuelta and was strong – if unspectacular –in the mountains in the final week. This year he'll have even more time trialling at his disposal – 70km over three tests – and has that valuable three-week experience under his belt. He may have lost out to Primož Roglič at the Volta a Catalunya but his victory at Liège puts him into the number one slot ahead of the Giro.
2. Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma)
- Age: 33
- Grand Tour experience: 3x Vuelta winner, podium finisher at Tour and Giro
- 2023 results: 1st Volta a Catalunya, 1st Tirreno-Adriatico
There are two top-tier favourites for this Giro d'Italia and, although Evenepoel shades the top spot in our form ranking, Primož Roglič is firmly in the same bracket. The Slovenian is a former winner of Liège-Bastogne-Liège and it would have been a fascinating antipasto to see how he'd have fared against Evenepoel at La Doyenne, but he has chosen to keep a slightly lower profile this Spring.
Still, what a Spring it has been, Roglič winning both stage races he has entered – Tirreno-Adriatico and Volta a Catalunya – and picking up five stage wins along the way. The debut at Tirreno was particularly surprising given a disrupted winter that involved shoulder surgery after he crashed out of the Vuelta a España, but it was a late addition to his programme and he showed no signs of rustiness as he produced three of his punchy finishing kicks to claim overall honours.
Catalunya was even more interesting as a direct confrontation with Evenepoel a month out from the Giro, and Roglič came out on top, both on the results sheet and in the mind games. There was relatively little to separate the pair so what stood out was the way Roglič appeared to rattle his rival. On the penultimate stage in particular, Evenepoel grew increasingly frustrated as Roglič – who was in the leader's jersey – marked his attack but didn't cooperate with him. It suggested that the Slovenian, even if he doesn't turn out to have the better legs at the Giro, could well be the one with the cooler head, and that there's room to use that to his advantage.
Evenepoel tops our list, partly because he's freshest in our memory, partly because of his time trialling, and partly perhaps because he was better at last year's Vuelta (even if that was cut short for Roglič), but the Jumbo-Visma leader is definitely his equal and we have a mouthwatering battle on our hands.
3. Tao Geoghegan Hart (Ineos Grenadiers)
- Age: 28
- Grand Tour experience: 2020 Giro d'Italia winner, six GT appearances
- 2023 results: 1st Tour of the Alps, 3rd Tirreno-Adriatico, 6th Ruta del Sol, 3rd Volta Valenciana
We come now to the best of the rest, turning our attention to the Tour of the Alps where Tao Geoghegan Hart came out on top, delivering a victory that revived hopes for his Grand Tour career. Geoghegan Hart is the only former Giro winner on the start list, having claimed a surprising and thrilling title in 2020, but he has endured a rough couple of years since, where momentum has been stunted at every turn.
Momentum is a word he has used repeatedly this year as he has put together a consistent string of results for the first time in a long time. At the Tour of the Alps he took another step forward, showcasing his finishing speed to win the opening two stages.
But it was the third one, which he didn't win, that was most impressive. It was the toughest stage of the race and Bora-Hansgrohe had put the pressure on his team, but Geoghegan Hart put the fires out with an attack 2km from the top. He took responsibility for the leader's jersey and didn't care about the rivals he might have been pulling along, putting his head down and eventually riding almost all of them off his wheel by the line. He safely negotiated the final two stages to seal the second stage race victory of his career after that 2020 Giro and it was clear Geoghegan Hart had found his groove again.
Ineos Grenadiers have a wealth of options for the Giro, with Geraint Thomas set to take a leadership role, along with younger hopefuls in Thymen Arensman and Pavel Sivakov. However Geoghegan Hart, who showed his maturity as well as his form, goes into the race at the top of that hierarchy.
4. João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates)
- Age: 24
- Grand Tour experience: 4th at 2020 Giro, 6th at 2021 Giro, 5th at 2022 Vuelta
- 2023 results: 3rd Volta a Catalunya, 2nd Tirreno-Adriatico, 6th Volta ao Algarve
João Almeida's results so far in 2023 position him firmly in contention for that final podium spot (if we're treating this as a two-horse race). He was best of the rest behind Roglič at Tirreno and best of the rest behind Roglič and Evenepoel at Catalunya.
That Catalunya display was Almeida at his chaotic best, with punctures and question marks over team tactics and harmony. His teammates were accused of not waiting for him on the opening summit finish and he was accused of chasing down his own teammate Marc Soler on the final day. It raised question marks over cohesion, which famously surfaced when he was racing alongside Evenepoel on the gravel stage of the 2021 Giro, and which could resurface as Almeida shares leadership with Jay Vine.
However, as an individual rider, Almeida is pretty solid, lacking any spectacular attacks but climbing consistently and with a decent finishing kick, too. Plus, he's not quite on Evenepoel and Roglič level, but he's the next strongest against the clock. Almeida finished fourth at the 2020 Giro, 6th the following year, and was forced to abandon through COVID last year. He has yet to make his Tour de France debut but is back to try and finally crack the podium in Italy, and looks well poised to do so.
5. Hugh Carthy (EF Education-EasyPost)
- Age: 28
- Grand Tour experience: 3rd at 2020 Vuelta, top-10 at Giro in 2021 and 2022
- 2023 results: 2nd Tour of the Alps, 8th Tirreno-Adriatico, 15th Tour du Var
Runner-up at the Tour of the Alps was Hugh Carthy, the British rider who finished on the podium of the 2020 Vuelta and top-10 in the past two editions of the Giro. He was a solid top-10 at Tirreno and nearly won on the steep uphill kick on that opening stage at Tour of the Alps.
He already showed on the Angliru at the 2020 Vuelta that he has the stomach for steep gradients. Carthy will prefer the heavier climbing stages on the Giro, particularly in the final week which went well for him last year. He was 18th on stage 15 but came out 8th overall.
Carthy lines up for EF Education-EasyPost alongside the experienced Rigoberto Urán as well as an exciting young Colombian in Alexander Cepeda, who caught the eye at Tour of the Alps, not to mention Ben Healy, the revelation of the Ardennes Classics.
6. Jack Haig (Bahrain-Victorious)
- Age: 29
- Grand Tour experience: 3rd at 2021 Vuelta, 9 GT appearances
- 2023 results: 3rd Tour of the Alps, DNF Volta a Catalunya, 10th Paris-Nice 11th Ruta del Sol
Jack Haig had a low-key start to the season but looks to be moving in the right direction ahead of the Giro. He was 11th at Ruta del Sol and suffered on the first summit finish at Paris-Nice, going on to finish 10th overall. He was then down in 17th at Catalunya before abandoning on the final day. The Australian hadn't raced since crashing out of the 2022 Tour de France on the cobbled stage so perhaps needed time to get back into the flow.
At the Tour of the Alps, he seemed to find some of that old sharpness, notably tracking Geoghegan Hart on the fast stage 2 finish. Expectations can now rise ahead of the Giro for a rider who made his Grand Tour breakthrough with third overall at the 2021 Vuelta, only to have the opportunity to kick on taken away at last year's Tour. France holds some miserable memories, as he broke his collarbone early at the 2021 Tour, and then there were the doping raids at the Bahrain Victorious hotel, with Haig one of the few riders to directly and openly address questions on that topic.
Haig is part of a strong Bahrain Victorious team for the Giro, which includes surprise 2021 podium finisher Damiano Caruso and Haig's co-leader from that 2020 Vuelta, Gino Mäder.
7. Lennard Kämna (Bora-Hansgrohe)
- Age: 26
- Grand Tour experience: 5 appearances, stage wins at Giro and Tour but no GC pedigree
- 2023 results: 6th Tour of the Alps, 4th Tirreno-Adriatico, DNF Volta Valenciana
Lennard Kämna played a prominent role in the attack that won the Giro for his teammate Jai Hindley 12 months ago, and the German could well be the surprise package of this corsa rosa. Having come through the youth ranks primarily as a time triallist, Kämna has developed into more of a climber, spending most of his time hunting from breakaways and striking gold at last year's Giro and at the Tour de France and Dauphiné in 2020.
At this Giro, however, he is going for the general classification of a Grand Tour for the first real time in his career. There have been question marks over how suited Kämna is to the more prosaic daily grind of the GC rider, given he has taken time away from the sport in the past to avoid burnout. “You need to have passion for cycling and have fun, otherwise it’s just pain," he said as he made a successful comeback last year.
Aleksandr Vlasov is the more experienced Grand Tour campaigner for Bora-Hansgrohe but Kämna has showed more of a spark so far this season. He recently won the queen stage of the Tour of the Alps with a clever attack on a day Bora bounced back after missing the previous day's move, with Vlasov sweeping up for a 1-2. More eye-catching still was the fourth-place finish at Tirreno in a very strong field. Kämna was second in the opening time trial, which suggests he has tapped back into his old skillset and, with 70km against the clock coming up at this Giro, that bodes very well indeed.
8. Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora-Hansgrohe)
- Age: 27
- Grand Tour experience: 5th at 2022 Tour, 4th at 2021 Giro
- 2023 results: 46th Liège-Bastogne-Liège, DNF Tour of the Alps, 9th Tirreno-Adriatico, 5th Volta Valenciana
Aleksandr Vlasov did not finish the Tour of the Alps, choosing to head to Liège a day early, but it's likely he would have ticked off the final stage to finish in seventh place, just behind Kämna. Like his teammate, he was caught out by the late split on stage 2 but was part of the queen stage bounce-back, hanging with Geoghgean Hart's late assault before sprinting to make it a Bora 1-2.
Vlasov has not caught the eye in quite the same way as he did 12 months ago when he beat Evenepoel to win Valenciana and then finished on the podium at Itzulia Basque Country. At Tirreno he was ninth, while Kamna was fourth, and at Liège he was off the favourites' pace. Last year Vlasov was talked about as a dark horse for the Tour de France but he goes into this Giro as less of a direct podium threat.
Still, at 27, he should now have sufficient experience under his belt to put together a strong challenge, and there are high hopes for Bora-Hansgrohe as a collective, not least since they emerged as a Grand Tour force at last year's Giro. 2022 champion Jai Hindley is focusing on the Tour de France but it will be fascinating to see how Vlasov and Kämna - supported by Matteo Fabbro and Patrick Konrad - dovetail their efforts.
9. Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers)
- Age: 36
- Grand Tour experience: Tour de France winner and two-time podium finisher, 17 GT appearances
- 2023 results: 15th Tour of the Alps, 45th Volta a Catalunya, 88th Tour Down Under
Geraint Thomas arguably heads into this Giro behind where he'd like to be, but the Welshman showed at last year's Tour de France that he should never be written off. Having been demoted to a support and mentoring role, Thomas emerged last summer to finish best of the rest behind Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar. That has allowed him to stake his claim to Giro leadership from the outset of this season, but a recurrent infection has scuppered his preparation. There have been numerous alterations to his programme but he has still managed to accrue 18 days of racing across three stage races.
He was largely anonymous at Tour Down Under and Catalunya but did make a step forward with 15th at Tour of the Alps, where he was Ineos' second best rider behind Geoghegan Hart. He said he needed that race to really kick through the gears, and he'll hope that hit-out, plus a few finishing touches, will get him to where he needs to be. Thomas has never been quick to gain form but when he hits the right notes he has consistently shown he has the legs for a Grand Tour challenge. That being said, he has gone into almost all the past Grand Tours he has targeted on the back of victory or a podium in a week-long race, so there are legitimate question marks here.
Much could boil down to how Ineos play their cards, with Arensman and Sivakov two other potential options. It's unlikely they'll be in a position to dictate like they did at Tour of the Alps, but it's nigh-on impossible to protect four riders, so decisions may have to be made fairly early on.
10. Giulio Ciccone (Trek-Segafredo)
- Age: 28
- Grand Tour experience: 10 appearances, 3 Giro stage wins and best GC result of 16th in 2019
- 2023 results: 13th Liège-Bastogne-Liège, 7th Volta a Catalunya, 5th Tirreno-Adriatico, 2nd Volta Valenciana
When we started compiling this ranking, Giulio Ciccone was a fair few places further up, but his positive test for COVID-19 has thrown everything up in the air – even his participation.
With stages wins in Valencia and Catalunya, plus a trio of strong GC results, he has put together a solid season so far. Add in 5th place at Flèche Wallonne and a finish in the main group of favourites at Liège and you have a really consistent start to the year, and consistency is something the Italian has often lacked particularly within Grand Tours. He has won three stages at the Giro but his highest overall finish remains 16th in 2019.
Hopes for a breakthrough have, however, been hampered by news of his COVID positive. It remains to be seen how it affects him but it's far from ideal. Even if he's relatively symptom-free and recovers quickly, he'll still have lost a few days on the bike in the final tune-up for the start on May 6. One to watch.
The rest of the pack
Ineos Grenadiers line up with two other options in Thymen Arensman and Pavel Sivakov. Arensman, a new signing from DSM, has already made his case for a leadership role, and does combine strong time trialling with steady climbing. However, inexperience could be an issue for the 23-year-old, who notably struggled at the start of the Tour of the Alps after dropping down from altitude. Sivakov, meanwhile, has never quite yet fulfilled the promise of his sparkling U23 success and while his 2023 results suggest he could fight for the top 10, it's easy to see him slotting into domestique duty.
Bahrain Victorious are another team with options. As well as Haig, they have Damiano Caruso, who was third at the 2021 Giro after years of helping others and comes into the race on the back of a top-10 at Giro di Sicilia. There's also Gino Mäder, fifth at the 2020 Vuelta and also fifth at Paris-Nice in March but he has been quiet elsewhere. Santiago Buitrago is also set to start after his brilliant podium at Liège but the 23-year-old Colombian won't be tasked with any sort of GC burden.
Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates) is one of the most intriguing names on the start list. We don't even know if he can really become a Grand Tour contender but his pair of mountain stage wins at last year's Vuelta were full of promise, and his showing in the Australian summer – national champion in the time trial and overall winner of the Tour Down Under – have added to the hype. His preparations have been blighted by a knee injury and he hasn't raced since leaving the UAE Tour in late February, so is something of an unknown quantity.
Rigoberto Urán joins Hugh Carthy in EF Education's line-up and while the 36-year-old's best days are surely behind him, he was 10th at Catalunya and in the mix on a couple of stages at Itzulia.
Eddie Dunbar (Jayco-AlUla) gets his first shot at Grand Tour leadership after leaving Ineos Grenadiers but his preparation has been all over the place with a long spell off the bike due to injury. Domenico Pozzovivo (Israel-Premier Tech) is a seasoned Giro campaigner but the 40-year-old is playing catch-up after only finding a team in late March. Eighth overall at last year's Giro, he was up there in Coppi e Bartali last month but off the pace at Tour of the Alps.
One rider who caught the eye in the Alps was Austrian climber Felix Gall, who lines up for AG2R Citroën alongside the steadier engine of Aurélien Paret-Peintre.
Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) is here in his final season but the mercurial Frenchman seems more interested in stage wins and the same is true of Lorenzo Fortunato (Eolo-Kometa) despite a strong 5th place finish at Tour of the Alps.
Finally, it's worth noting the back-up options at Soudal-QuickStep and Jumbo-Visma should anything happen to Evenepoel or Roglič. QuickStep have Ilan Van Wilder who was on the podium at Volta ao Algarve, set up Evenepoel's attack on La Redoute at Liège, and packs a strong time trial. Jumbo-Visma, meanwhile, have world time trial champion Tobias Foss, who harbours his own career GC ambitions and looks set to move teams next year to pursue them.
