Giorgia Meloni has emerged as a kingmaker for the EU – but will she turn to centre right or far right?

Ursula von der Leyen, right, worked closely with Meloni on a deal reforming EU asylum rules. Photograph: Roberto Monaldo/AP

When she became Italy’s prime minister in October 2022, Giorgia Meloni looked like Brussels’ worst nightmare. Until then, the fiery leader of the Brothers of Italy – a party with neofascist roots – had seemed anything but EU-friendly.

For years, railing against the bloc had been Meloni’s stock in trade: the euro amounted to enslavement, the European Commission was effectively a loan shark. “Bring down this EU!” she urged the 2019 conservative CPAC conference in the US.