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energy reporter Daniel Mercer

Gina Rinehart, Kerry Stokes and Chris Ellison in race to stake claim over Perth Basin despite gas price gap

From Adelaide to the back blocks of Queensland, the passage of federal laws to cap the price of gas sparked a wave of gloom in the industry.

There were complaints about the "Soviet-style" intervention and Australia's slide into the realm of tin-pot nations, and claims the laws amounted to "Armageddon" on the industry which would all but kill off investment.

But on the other side of the country, a remarkable race is underway between three of Western Australia's – and the country's – richest people to secure a share of the state's burgeoning onshore gas industry.

So what's going on, and why haven't the laws — or the spectre of them — failed to dampen the enthusiasm?

Billionaires circle WA gas reserves

Those questions were looming large in business and political circles after mining billionaire Chris Ellison last week made a $403 million play for onshore oil and gas explorer Norwest Energy.

In doing so, Mr Ellison joined the fray in the rush for onshore WA gas assets alongside fellow Perth squillionaires Kerry Stokes and Gina Rinehart.

Through Beach Energy, in which Mr Stokes's Seven Group has a 30 per cent share, the 82-year-old had significant sway over half of the Waitsia gas project, north of Perth.

But up until last week, Mr Stokes, the chairman of media group Seven West, had been trying to expand the Beach footprint by taking over another listed onshore gas explorer, Warrego Energy.

It was a tilt that appeared to come up short after Mr Stokes and Beach were outmanoeuvred by none other than Australia's richest person, Ms Rinehart.

Ms Rinehart's company, Hancock Prospecting, moved quickly to outbid Mr Stokes by offering $342 million for Warrego, which owns the West Erregulla gas field about 230 kilometres north-east of Perth.

Takeover rush at odds with gas price cap

The frenzy of activity seems at odds with the grim picture painted by the Commonwealth's new laws and the longer-term switch to renewable energy.

But resources analyst Saul Kavonic from investment bank Credit Suisse said a common thread runs through the strategies of all three Perth billionaires.

According to Mr Kavonic, gas would have a big role to play one way or another in the energy transition, especially in WA and overseas.

What's more, WA was a much friendlier jurisdiction for gas companies than the eastern states, Mr Kavonic noted.

He said that although the state was the only one in Australia with a domestic reservation policy, it was also the most likely to allow gas projects to go ahead.

To that end, he said Mr Stokes, Ms Rinehart and Mr Ellison were all likely to be reading the signs from the state government.

Exports could sweeten deal for investors

Crucially, Mr Kavonic said another element may be adding to the attractiveness of onshore gas in WA – exports.

"I think they will consider allowing export exemptions going forward," Mr Kavonic said.

In 2020, Premier Mark McGowan courted controversy when he banned onshore gas exports in the state while allowing the Waitsia project, linked to Mr Stokes, to do so.

At the time, Mr McGowan justified the decision by saying the Waitsia expansion was needed to boost jobs during the depths of COVID and it was "shovel ready".

About half the gas from Waitsia field would be sent offshore under the arrangement.

However, other gas companies including the operator of the West Erregulla project, Strike Energy, have long argued the ban was unfair and discriminatory.

It has since emerged another project backed by Texan oil company Black Mountain had been given permission to export gas from a giant, remote field in WA's northern Kimberley region.

The little-heralded decision on Black Mountain sent shivers through the state's domestic gas users, who fret that WA gas prices could follow those on the eastern seaboard if exports are allowed en masse for onshore producers.

Concerns compounded by gas supply shortage fears

Those worries were not helped this week when gas market operator the Australian Energy Market Operator released a report showing a sizeable gap opening up between supply and demand from 2030.

Gas prices are also already rising, from as little as $2 a gigajoule five years ago to almost $8 a gigajoule now.

Amid speculation the government was looking to clarify its onshore gas export position, the office of State Development Minister Roger Cook was giving little away.

In response to questions from the ABC, Mr Cook's office said the government's policy against exporting onshore gas remained in place.

Nevertheless, his office also hinted at its ambiguity, noting that it applied to projects "in proximity to existing infrastructure".

"Our decision to not privatise electricity assets, combined with our domestic gas policy, means Western Australians are protected from the massive surges in power prices east coast communities are now confronting," a spokesman for Mr Cook said.

"By taking this brave step 16 years ago, despite very vocal criticism, Western Australia has reliable and affordable gas and electricity — the complete opposite of the chaos on the east coast.

"In August 2020, the WA Government strengthened the WA domestic gas policy to prevent the export of onshore gas. 

"This ensures industry and buyers can continue to access reliable and affordable gas. 

"Any new onshore projects with proximity to existing infrastructure will not meet the criteria for exemption from the policy."

For his part, Mr Kavonic said the WA government may well be leaving its options open to allow more onshore gas exports in future.

However, he believed the state may be unlikely to go for a one-size-fits-all approach and would instead make its decisions as projects arise.

"But they're just going to be sensitive to what's going on in the market at the same time," he said.

"And because there are so few projects there, you can just do it on a case by case basis."

Mr Kavonic said the trio of billionaires may each have their own reasons for their punts, with Ms Rinehart and Mr Ellison, for example, having major mining and mineral processing operations that could use the gas.

Whatever their motivations, he said they all obviously still thought gas was a valuable commodity.

"We are seeing energy inflation in general and pricing is likely to be higher on a long-term basis across the domestic market in Australia — east and west coast," he said.

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