Support truly
independent journalism
On the penultimate night of the transfer window, Arsenal were weighing up whether to take either Bayern Munich’s Kingsley Coman or Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling, but still holding out for something else. That has left the Stamford Bridge hierarchy sweating, having already struggled to strike a deal with Manchester United.
This little circle involving some of the biggest clubs features many of the forces that have made this transfer window so quiet so far - but could yet see a frenzy on the final day. Some executives have told the Independent they are expecting “bedlam” on Friday, as everyone now rushes to deals after months of build-up.
The talks between Chelsea and United point to how they are part of several major clubs - including Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona - who now actively want to sell players.
That is because the entire market has essentially reached an impasse after years, rather than just months, of paying huge wages. It’s why many in the industry now believe this could be the start of a cycle that sees salaries significantly drop for the first time. Some have even taken to calling it football's new age of austerity.
Too many clubs are extremely close to Profit and Sustainability Rule limits, with this creating a self-perpetuating problem. Very few can buy without selling, meaning there’s little movement.
It has been compounded in Europe by a lack of money, especially compared to the market’s main force in the Premier League. That has left the Premier League meanwhile coming up against the ceiling of its own high wages, as clubs just can’t shift those on huge contracts. They paid too much for too long. Sterling is the most obvious example but far from the only one. Even at Arsenal, who are able to be more flexible than most, Reiss Nelson’s current contract means there have so far been few potential buyers.
Major European clubs will only make exceptions in rare circumstances, for what they consider senior players. It has pointed to another theme of the summer, which has been British Premier League internationals like Conor Gallagher and Scott McTominay going abroad.
Some of these deals were only possible with the aid of agents brokering, which is why the word in the industry is that this has been a very good summer for Jorge Mendes again. There’s almost a carousel with the modern super agencies and who is “on top” at any one time. Mendes is back there.
Many others might be busy on Friday, though.
Although the market has been completely backlogged, and clubs have struggled to do deals, none of that escapes the fact that many now need to do deals. This is what can see everything - including leverage - tilt in the final hours. The balance of power in negotiations will shift.
One executive even spoke of how many clubs now think they might be able to get deals done on Friday that would have been as much as £60m a few weeks ago. Brentford’s price for Ivan Toney has already dropped from £60m to £35m. Arsenal have meanwhile prevaricated on a decision about Coman or Sterling because they feel another wide forward option could yet present itself on Friday.
They aren’t rushed, though, and are willing to wait and re-assess in January. Their pursuit of a wide forward to complement Bukayo Saka is still one of many window storylines, along with Toney’s future, that have been left dangling. They are also reasons why there might finally be resolutions on deadline day.
Toney’s future is interlinked with Victor Osimhen’s, even though they’ve never shared a pitch. Both are wanted by Saudi Pro League clubs. Both have been considered by Chelsea. It is possible the Stamford Bridge hierarchy move for whoever doesn’t go to Saudi Arabia. If they can’t get either, an attempt for Dominic Calvert-Lewin isn’t impossible.
That comes as Chelsea seek to make a number of sales. United are similar, and the player with the most uncertain future is Jadon Sancho. Juventus still hope to complete a deal after selling Federico Chiesa to Liverpool.
The Anfield club would like a midfielder and maybe a centre-half but they’re also almost certain to wait, and are quite comfortable with how their squad looks. They are one of a few clubs that have been interested in Eberechi Eze, but Crystal Palace’s resolute stance means they now look set to keep both the forward and Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi. Newcastle United didn’t get near Palace’s price on the latter.
It is a familiar story. Even right at the top, Real Madrid would be open to selling Rodrygo given the number of attacking options they have but… nobody is coming in at that price.
Most clubs have basically been waiting until now for prices to fall, and hope to do knock-down deals. We may even see some otherwise unusual swap deals, as United and Chelsea have already discussed possibilities. There just isn’t that much time to get them done. That might make it all the more manic.
