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It is something that Julian Nagelsmann doesn’t even want to be mentioned around the German camp, but it’s now impossible not to consider. Would the hosts have been better off had Niclas Fullkrug not scored that 92nd-minute equaliser against Switzerland in the final group game? Might that have been the moment on which the entire tournament turned?
A 1-0 defeat would have put Germany second in their group and on the more forgiving side of the draw, probably making them the biggest force there. It could have been a clear route to the semi-final.
Nagelsmann would argue that, if that happened, the hosts wouldn’t still have their unbeaten record. They wouldn’t have the emotional momentum that comes with a last-minute equaliser to preserve that record, either. They wouldn’t have the same aura.
Euro 2024, meanwhile, wouldn’t have a fixture as mouthwatering as Spain v Germany on Friday.
It has all the elements to be the game of the tournament. That isn’t just because they are two of the favourites, or even that it’s the stirring hosts against the team of the tournament so far. It’s also how they play, and how the manner of this meeting lends itself to goals. That is reflected in how Germany and Spain are the two top-scoring teams at Euro 2024, a gap between them and the rest as well as performances that suggest there are many more to come. Spain could easily have had double their nine so far, especially in the wins over Georgia and Italy.
Euro 2024
Top scoring teams
Germany 10
Spain 9
Switzerland 7
Austria 7
Netherlands 7
Turkey 7
Portugal 5
Georgia 5
England 4
Romania 4
Slovakia 4
The only pity is that, partly due to Fullkrug’s goal, a match like this is taking place so early. It looks like it should be the final. It might even end up being viewed as the “real final”.
Through that, the match has the potential to be a Euro 2024 equivalent of Brazil 1-1 France 1986, Netherlands 2-1 Argentina 1998, Germany 1-1 Argentina 2006, Belgium 2-1 Brazil 2018 or Italy 2-1 Belgium 2021. That is the quarter-final epic that comes to almost define the legacy of a tournament, and influences how it is remembered.
As can be seen above, however, most of these spectacles didn't come from the European Championships – and very few of the winners ended up as champions.
The former is because of the previous concentrated nature of the competition. Quarter-finals have only been part of it since the expansion to 16 teams in 1996, and showdowns as momentous as this basically required a high-performing team to finish second in the group. That was rare, in part because anyone good enough to bring the anticipation that Spain and Germany do now usually also had enough convincing performances to finish first. It is only the further expansion to 24, and the strange nature of the last 16, that can bring these types of crossovers. That was why we finally saw such a game in Italy’s raucous 2-1 win over Belgium at Euro 2020. An irony was that it was the Italians' last truly expansive performance, and they were much more restrained in the last two games that secured the trophy.
That points to why a potential “real final” may not see either team in the actual final at all, since it is sometimes because of the effects of such a game. They become too epic, and can even take too much out of teams.
Spain v Germany could well develop into a similar sort of game, which would be great for everyone else. Going into it, both have a new confidence about where they are as teams.
Much of Germany’s confidence comes from this very tournament and, yes, the way that Fullkrug’s goal against the Swiss perpetuated momentum. If a lot of the commentary has been about how Euro 2024 hasn’t recreated the public mood of 2006, it has at least been similar for the team. There is a sense that a young squad have shown significant progress to be proper contenders going forward, just like in that German World Cup. That isn’t to say there isn’t a will to go and win this trophy at home in the next week, but there is a satisfaction with how they’ve done and a readiness for a huge challenge.
It is almost a fresh start for both teams in that sense. Spain haven’t been afflicted by the anxiety that has subdued virtually every tournament since their last trophy at Euro 2012. Even when they went behind for the first time here, against Georgia in the last 16, there was no new doubt or hesitation. They almost played with a new ferocity. That’s all the more admirable since Spain do not have the quantity of senior stars that they did in the 2008-12 glory era. It was still conspicuous that it was the one established and experienced winner, in Rodri, who first guided them through with that precise, pinpoint finish.
Part of the difference, however, is that Spain don’t have the same pent-up frustration. They no longer need to just keep passing and passing until a gap eventually presents itself. They can now force those gaps with two of the fastest players in the competition, in Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal. They have the ultimate release, through a pace that not even the 2008-12 team possessed.
That could further fire this game, too, since it is out wide in defence that Germany are most vulnerable. Nagelsmann has been considering ways to counteract this.
On the other side, however, this will be the first game where Germany haven’t faced a three-man defensive system. That might allow even more space for Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz. The presumption would be that space will only present itself on the rare occasions Germany actually get the ball off Luis de la Fuente's side, but suggestions from the Spanish camp are already that they will instead approach this game like they did the 3-0 win over Croatia. That will involve a greater willingness to cede possession. It could be one that ends up being a constant exchange of quick transitions – in other words, a perpetual back-and-forth. That would mark some difference from the possession-based ideology with which both of these national teams won the World Cup over the last 14 years.
There is maybe a deeper point in there about greater tactical shifts and what it actually takes to revitalise teams, as well as how quickly it can happen. These are two countries who have now endured a decade of frustration after two historic eras. This quarter-final already looks completely different to their match just 18 months ago at the 2022 World Cup. It feels very different, too.
Talk on the meaning of it all might have to wait until the end of this tournament, though. For now, this might just be one to enjoy the experience. It has all the elements of an epic.
