Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to face a confidence vote in the German parliament on Monday, with expectations that he will lose, leading to an early election in February for the European Union's most populous member and largest economy.
Scholz's three-party government collapsed in November following the dismissal of his finance minister amid disagreements over revitalizing Germany's economy, leading to the withdrawal of the minister's pro-business party from the coalition. This left the remaining center-left partners without a parliamentary majority.
As a result, major party leaders agreed to hold a parliamentary election on February 23, seven months earlier than initially planned. The German constitution requires a confidence vote to trigger an early election since the Bundestag cannot dissolve itself.
In the upcoming vote, Scholz's Social Democrats hold 207 seats and are expected to support the chancellor, while the Greens, with 117 seats, plan to abstain. This is unlikely to secure the 367-seat majority needed for Scholz to win the confidence vote.
If Scholz loses, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to decide whether to dissolve the Bundestag, leading to an election within 60 days of dissolution.
The campaign is already underway, with Scholz emphasizing key issues such as investing in the future, job security, industry modernization, and efforts towards peace in Ukraine without escalating tensions with Russia.
Center-right challenger Friedrich Merz anticipates a tough election campaign, focusing on enhancing economic competitiveness as a crucial factor for progress. Polls indicate that Scholz's party is trailing behind Merz's Union bloc, with Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck also vying for the top position.
The far-right Alternative for Germany has nominated Alice Weidel as its candidate for chancellor but faces challenges due to other parties' reluctance to collaborate.
Confidence votes are rare in Germany, known for valuing stability, with this being only the sixth instance post-World War II. The last similar situation occurred in 2005 when an early election was narrowly won by Angela Merkel.
