Georgia football (9-0) will take its new No. 1 College Football Playoff ranking to Starkville for a matchup with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-3) on Saturday.
UGA is rolling: five straight SEC wins capped by a 27-13 beat down of former No. 1 Tennessee a week ago. MSU is coming off a 39-33 overtime win over Auburn in Week 10.
The game is set to kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Georgia is a 16.5-point favorite, per BetMGM. The over/under is set at 53.5.
Here’s why Georgia avoids the letdown and beats Mississippi State to move to 10-0:
Championship defense
Georgia’s defense showed last week that even the top offense in college football, Tennessee, can’t move the ball at will on the Bulldogs.
The Volunteers came into the game averaging 49 points and 553 yards per game. They were held to 13 points and 289 yards in Athens.
Mississippi State will have to play much better than it has lately if it is going to score on Saturday.
Against LSU, Kentucky and Alabama, who are among top defenses in the SEC, Mississippi State scored 16, 17 and six points.
Run game
Georgia’s run game has been steadily developing into a force over the past five games and is averaging 194 yards on the ground per game (fifth in SEC).
The Bulldogs will throw all day if the defense wants to load the box, but that doesn’t stop this Todd Monken offense from making teams respect the run.
Especially late in games, UGA likes to lean on the run game and chew the clock no matter what the defense does.
Mississippi State is eighth in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing 150 yards per game.
Unbalanced attack
While Mississippi State has the second-best passing offense in the SEC at 325 yards per game, the Bulldogs from Starkville are only averaging 80 rushing yards per game (last in SEC).
Teams have had a balanced offensive attack when they’ve created space on this Kirby Smart UGA defense.
It will be tough for MSU to find points if it continues to run the ball as it has this season.
Is anyone stopping Stetson?
Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett played as good as we’ve seen him play this season in the toughest test yet when Tennessee came to town.
Bennett earned SEC Co-Offensive Player of the Week for his performance.
The simple fact here is Tennessee’s defense is better than Mississippi State’s, and Bennett, along with Brock Bowers, Kenny McIntosh and Ladd McConkey and company, will find room to create points.
MSU is allowing 24 points per game (eighth in SEC) and gives up 210 passing yards per game (seventh in SEC).
Key stars back in action
Georgia has had its fair share of stars go down with injuries this season, but there is some good news for the Bulldogs on that front.
Junior running back Kendall Milton returned against Tennessee after missing ultiple games with a groin injury.
Defensive lineman Jalen Carter played the most snaps since Week 1 on Saturday.
Prediction
I look at Mississippi State’s matchup with Alabama for a reference for this game.
The Tide held MSU to six points and gashed the Bulldogs defense for 30 points for an easy win in Tuscaloosa.
While this will be a home game for Mississippi State, the Bulldogs will maintain momentum from Week 10 and cover the 16.5-point line in Starkville.
Prediction: 41-9, Georgia wins, covers and moves to 10-0.
Click here to place your bets at BetMGM.
Get more betting analysis and predictions at Sportsbook Wire.
Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See applicable operator site for its terms and conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21 or older to gamble.
