For the last three weeks, the No. 1 ranked team in the AP Top 25 has been Georgia.
It makes perfect sense. UGA is the reigning national champion, hasn’t lost a game in 2022 and, despite a couple of hiccups (Kent State and Missouri), has won every game in blowout fashion. In fact, in their other five games, the Bulldogs have outscored opponents 227–20. And yet, here they are as the No. 5 seed in the latest edition of our mock expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. Let us explain …
1) We are using the exact expansion model that CFP executives adopted in August, whereby the four highest-ranked conference champions are the only teams that can earn top-four seeds and a first-round bye. It bears repeating: If you are not a conference champion, you cannot earn a first-round bye or a top-four seed.
2) Based on the first eight weeks of the season—most importantly its win over Alabama—we’ve anointed Tennessee as the SEC champion to this point in the year. We are very much aware that the Vols have to travel to Georgia in a few weeks and we are also aware that, if they were to advance to the SEC title game, they’d have to beat Alabama again, this time on a neutral field. But this seeding isn’t a prognostication of the rest of the season. Our seeding is determined by what a team has done to this point in the year.
All of that is to say this: One of the many issues with this 12-team model is the prospect of having a No. 5 seed that is seeded below teams it is ranked ahead of. This might all work itself out, but in the end, there is a very real shot that the No. 5 seed this year would be an 11–1 Michigan team (a loser to Ohio State in The Game), a 12–1 Georgia team (loser to Alabama in the SEC title game) or 11–1 Tennessee (loser to Georgia in the regular season).
Brett Davis/AP
In fact, this exact scenario played itself out last year. The year’s season-long No. 1, Georgia, lost to Alabama in the SEC title game and was seeded No. 3 in the four-team CFP. In the 12-team expanded model, the Bulldogs would have been—surprise surprise—No. 5. Teams like AAC champion Cincinnati and two-loss Big 12 champ Baylor would have been seeded ahead of Georgia (yikes).
While for some this is an issue, the format places a premium on winning your league. And that’s important, as it puts emphasis on late-season games and conference championship games.
Before we launch into the bracket, be reminded that the expansion model grants automatic qualifiers to the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large selections to the next six highest-ranked teams. The four first-round games are played on the better seed’s campus. Six bowls host the quarterfinals and semifinals in a rotation, with teams assigned to their league’s historic bowl affiliation.
1. Tennessee (SEC champion)
Sugar Bowl
2. Clemson (ACC champion)
Orange Bowl
3. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
Fiesta Bowl
4. TCU (Big 12 champion)
Cotton Bowl
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Semifinals: Peach (No. 1 v No. 4) and Rose (No. 2 v No. 3)
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5. Georgia (SEC at large)
12. Tulane (American champion)
Athens, Ga.
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6. Michigan (Big Ten at large)
11. USC (Pac-12 at large)
Ann Arbor, Mich.
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7. Alabama (SEC at large)
10. Oklahoma State (Big 12 at large)
Tuscaloosa, Ala.
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8. Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
9. Wake Forest (ACC at large)
Eugene, Ore.
So long: Two teams lost their places in our bracket after last weekend’s results. Those were UCLA (45–30 losers at Oregon) and Ole Miss (45–20 losers at LSU). The Rebels were exposed, and the Bruins ran into what appears to be one of the country’s hottest teams in Oregon. With the win, coach Dan Lanning’s crew bumped UCLA from the No. 4 seed and replaced it as the Pac-12 champion No. 8 seed. The Ducks get a home playoff game against a Wake Forest team that would have to fly cross-country. That’s a tough draw for Dave Clawson & Co., especially since the margin of differences between the Nos. 8 and 9 seeds isn’t very big. In fact, that’s another one of the issues with this 12-team format. (Hey! Every Playoff expansion model has its flaws).
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