Calls from outgoing Dawson MP George Christensen for children not to be vaccinated against COVID-19 are unlikely to have an impact on the seat at the next election, one of Queensland's leading political commentators says.
Mr Christensen made the controversial comments in the latest episode of his podcast series.
Griffith University political scientist associate professor Paul Williams said he expected the LNP to comfortably retain Dawson, albeit with a swing against it.
"Dawson is a safe enough seat … there is a big enough margin for the LNP to keep that seat, barring an LNP implosion as it were," he said.
"The LNP's big fear of course is they're going to bleed votes from the LNP to the populist fringe right.
The Prime Minister was forced to reprimand Mr Christensen over the "dangerous" remarks this week.
"I think they're unwise views, I think they're dangerous views … I don't think parents should be listening to them," Scott Morrison said on Wednesday.
"That's certainly the advice I have from the Chief Medical Officer.
"They have in no way whatsoever influenced government policy at all."
Mr Morrison said he was also discussing Mr Christensen's role as the chair of federal parliament's Trade and Investment Committee with Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce.
Labor has attacked the government over its handling of Mr Christensen's comments, with home affairs spokesperson Kristina Keneally labelling the Prime Minister's response as "weak".
"At best, being told off by Mr Morrison is like being licked by a lamb," she tweeted.
"[The PM's] own MPs don't care what he says [and] are undermining public health messages — right when [Australia's] COVID infection rates are at their worst."
A spokesman for Mr Christensen said the MP stood by the podcast and suggested "people listen to [it] in full".
Seat only held by Labor twice
Mr Christensen will retire at the next election having served as the member for the North Queensland seat since 2010.
At the last election he received 43 per cent of the first-preference vote and 64.6 per cent of two-party preferred.
The seat has only been held twice by Labor since its creation in 1949 — first from 1966 to 1975 by Whitlam government minister Rex Patterson and then from 2007 to 2010 by James Bidgood.
The upcoming election will see LNP candidate Andrew Willcox (the Mayor of the Whitsunday Regional Council), take on Labor candidate and coal miner Shane Hamilton.
Cr Willcox has publicly supported the vaccine rollout in his position as Mayor, though at a council meeting last year he voiced concerns about state government vaccine mandates.
Mr Williams said Mr Christensen's retirement could prompt a "fringe right-wing candidate" to come forward.
"[Someone] that has been peddling support or the idea that we should be suspicious of vaccinations of vaccination mandates," Mr Williams said.
He said did not see Mr Christensen's retirement or comments as having an impact outside the electorate.
"These sort of comments tend to confirm or underscore people's ideological viewpoints," Mr Williams said.
"They're not really going to change votes."
Comments for a new career?
Despite history not being on his side, Mr Hamilton said he was feeling "really positive" about the upcoming contest.
"I think it'll go down to the wire and I'm not sure if any candidate will get over the line with their primary vote," he said.
"It'll really come down to preferencing and where people choose to put their preferences."
Mr Hamilton said he did not expect Mr Christensen's viewpoints to impact the election, given he was retiring.
"Most people just see this as a personal hidden agenda for when he retires from parliament," he said.
"He's essentially trying to promote his own podcast, his own newsletter.
Mr Hamilton said he had spoken with some lifelong LNP voters who had "lost faith" in Mr Christensen.
"Their comments to me are that if he would run again, they would really find it hard to vote for a party that they've been voting for their whole life," Mr Hamilton said.
"It's just an absolute disgrace that a sitting member of the government would come out with remarks like this."
Mr Willcox has been contacted for comment.
