When Geno Smith became the Seattle Seahawks’ franchise quarterback (and the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year) in the 2022 season, he had the league’s third-most attempts with two tight ends on the field — 159 per Sports Info Solutions, of which he completed 117 for 1,190 yards, 759 air yards, 11 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 104.5. Smith had 40 attempts with three tight ends on the field — only Patrick Mahomes had more with 67 — and Smith completed 30 of those passes for 305 yards, 105 air yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 107.8.
In the more standard 11 personnel — one running back, one tight end, and three receivers — Smith had 387 attempts, which ranked 13th in the league. Smith completed 260 of those passes for 2,790 yards, 1,666 air yards, 20 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 97.8.
Through the first 12 weeks of the 2023 season, Smith has just 62 attempts with two tight ends on the field, which ranks 13th. He’s completed 49 of those passes for 553 yards, 302 air yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 125.3. Smith has just 17 attempts with three tight ends on the field — seventh-most in the league — and he’s completed 12 of those passes for 180 yards, 98 air yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 105.0.
That leaves 11 personnel as a primary construct for Seattle’s 2023 passing game, and this season, Smith has 265 attempts, which ranks 14th. He’s completed 165 passes in 11 for 1,716 yards, 895 air yards, seven touchdowns, seven of his eight interceptions (the other one came out of 10 personnel), and a passer rating of 78.8, which ranks 24th among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts in 11 personnel.
The first-round selection of Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba presaged more 11 personnel this season once the rookie got into the swing of things with fellow receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but it doesn’t seem as if Smith has caught up to the idea. More specifically, Smith, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, and head coach Pete Carroll have all spoken this week about Smith’s need to get the ball out more quickly, and more on time with the route concepts. It hasn’t been a problem in those tight end-heavy formations, but with a new mainstay and new concepts, the timing is clearly off, and it’s affected the offense all year long.
It’s a bad time for this to be happening. The 6-5 Seahawks are fighting for postseason relevance after getting thrashed by the San Francisco 49ers on Thanksgiving night, and they’re up this Thursday against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has the lowest opponent passer rating allowed against 11 personnel — 72.6, which you get when you allow 141 of 239 attempts for 1,485 yards, nine touchdowns, and eight interceptions. (By the way, the 49ers that just whooped up on Seattle lead the league with 13 interceptions against 11 personnel). Also by the way, Cowboys star cornerback DaRon Bland, who has already set the NFL single-season record with five pick-sixes, has four of those interception touchdowns against 11 personnel.
Before we get into the issues Seattle clearly faces with personnel and efficiency in the passing game, let’s chop up what everyone’s saying about it.
"We just need to be in sync."
“We just need to be in sync,” Carroll said on Sunday. “We need to be connected and we need to be making the right choices. There’s a couple in every game, there’s always choices for the quarterback. Does he go here? Does he go there? Just try to maximize him and not miss opportunities that might show up. His accuracy is pretty much on. He throws the ball where he wants the ball to go for the most part.
“We have to get open, we have to use the concepts right. There are always things he can do better. It’s just reading more quickly and get the ball out more readily so we can avoid the rush. Of all of the things in particular like this week, we need to get the ball out. The ball has got to get out of his hands so that we don’t give the rusher a chance. If there’s anything in particular, that’s what I’m hoping Geno (Smith) can find his keys, his reads, and get the ball out ahead of the rush. That’s easier said than done.”
Smith, who spoke on the matter Monday, didn’t disagree.
“Just processing and going through reads and getting the ball out to the designed guy within rhythm of the play and the offense. Coach [Carroll] is right. I probably have been holding the ball a little bit too long to try to see guys open, instead of what I normally do, is to throw them open. Just trusting the guys, trusting myself, believing in what we’re doing and just getting the ball and making sure that I’m throwing it pretty accurately so the guys can make catches and make great plays because they’re great players.”
Waldron was also asked about it on Monday.
“The one aspect I think for Geno is that timing and rhythm in the pass game, especially in the known passing situations in the third down. But for those things to happen for Geno, there’s a lot of things that go into it, and I think for us as an offense as a whole in the passing game, taking all 11 [players] every snap into account, including Geno, I think that’s one thing where we’re looking to take a step forward.”
If this sounds like a schism with personnel and deployment, that’s what it looks like on the field at times, as well.
Elimination and isolation.
When we talk about a quarterback’s processing skills, my “Xs and Os” colleague Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup has a more specific term for it — elimination and isolation. Which is to say, the most comfortable quarterbacks have the ability in the timing of the down to eliminate what isn’t there, and to isolate what is.
That’s been a specific issue for Smith this season, especially in 11 personnel. A loop of those seven interceptions in that personnel group reveals a common theme. Smith is a bit too carried away with trying to make something happen, which delays his ability to see and react to his receivers coming open.
On this interception by San Francisco cornerback Ambry Thomas on Thanksgiving, Smith had tight end Colby Parkinson running a quick stop route to his right side, and Locket running a longer out-cut. It was first-and-10 early in the second quarter, and Parkinson was wide open against the 49ers’ Cover-3, but Smith went for the more explosive play, and we went for it late. That gave Thomas the time he needed to jump the route.
Against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9, the Seahawks ran a dagger concept to Smith’s back side, with Lockett running the vertical route, and receiver Jake Bobo with the out. It looked as if Lockett was cutting his route short to avoid moving into the coverage of safety Geno Stone in Baltimore’s Cover-4, but Smith threw the ball where Stone was, and where Lockett wasn’t.
And this interception against the Cleveland Browns in Week 8 probably should have been thrown sooner than it was. Instead, the timing of the throw allowed cornerback Martin Emerson to drive and jump the out route to Metcalf.
Redefining how explosive plays are created.
This season, Smith has attempted 31 passes of 20 or more air yards in 11 personnel, and he’s completed 11 for 364 yards, 298 air yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 53.7. It’s clear that the Seahawks want their explosive passing plays to come out of 11 personnel, and it’s just as clear that not everyone is on the same page most of the time.
Conversely, Smith has completed two of six passes of 20 or more air yards with two tight ends on the field for 78 yards, 49 air yards, one touchdown, no interception, and a passer rating of 121.5. He’s completed three of four deep passes with three tight ends on the field for 83 yards, 70 air yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 116.7.
What becomes obvious is that Waldron seems more comfortable designing route concepts that give Smith defined openings when he has more tight ends on the field. The Ravens don’t allow a lot of deep passes this season, but they got zapped for 50 yards on this pass from Smith to Metcalf. Lockett and tight end Nah Fant ran vertical routes to Smith’s front side, with Metcalf running the over route underneath. Smith didn’t have to throw Metcalf open; the route came to him.
So, if the Seahawks are in a place where Smith has to throw his receivers open more in one personnel package than others, it would make sense that there’s going to be an adjustment process. The route concepts, even on the explosive plays that do work out of 11, aren’t quite as easy to read. This 35-yard completion to Smith-Njigba against the Ravens was a stop/fade combination with Lockett running the short route to take cornerback Brandon Stephens out of the area, and Smith-Njigba won the battle with cornerback Arthur Maulet.
This was a nifty design, and I’m a big fan of slot fades in general. I would like to see more ideas like this with that particular personnel group.
Now might be a time for a reversion to form.
Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who was Carroll’s assistant head coach and defensive line coach in 2010, and his defensive coordinator in 2013 and 2014, calls more dime defense than anyone else in his position in the NFL, and it’s not even close. Dallas has 207 snaps with six defensive backs on the field this season against the pass — the Patriots rank second with 140. That has left them far more vulnerable to multiple tight end looks than they’ve been against 11 personnel. Quinn’s defense has allowed 21 catches on 22 targets with two tight ends for 296 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 97.3.
So, perhaps the Seahawks should go back to the future for this one if they want a better chance to save their season, make their quarterback more comfortable, and pull their offense out of its current morass.
