Nobody in the NFL expected this. Except for Geno Smith.
Through the first half of the 2022 NFL season, the Seattle Seahawks’ starting quarterback has completed 207 of 283 passes for 2,199 yards, 15 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 107.2. Smith ranks fifth in the NFL in both DVOA and DYAR. His completion rate of 73.1%, if Smith is able to hold that up, would rank third in NFL history behind Drew Brees’ 74.4% in 2018, and 74.3% in 2019. Lest you think that high rate of efficiency means that the 10-year NFL veteran is just checking it down, Smith also leads the league with nine touchdown passes of 20 or more air yards.
Smith has become one of the NFL’s best, most complete, and most consistent quarterbacks, which is what nobody except Smith thought would happen. Since he was selected with the 39th overall pick in the second round of the 2013 draft out of West Virginia by the New York Jets, Smith had been far better-known for his failures than his successes.
But now? Smith, who’s on a one-year, $3.5 million deal with $500,000 guaranteed, is fully in the discussion as one of the most remarkable later-career quarterbacks in the history of professional football, right up there with Kurt Warner and Jim Plunkett. He has turned the Seahawks’ offense into something very much in his own image, and the city of Seattle has gone from wondering how long it would take its professional football team to replace Russell Wilson, to wondering who that Russell Wilson guy was in the first place.
“It’s amazing that everybody gets to see him and recognize him, and they have recognized him this quickly,” Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said last Friday, soon after Smith was named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for October. “I mean, right out of the chutes in the first couple of weeks, everybody was talking about him and all, and he has just stacked one on top of another, and has played really solid football for us. We are really counting on him, and it’s a real honor for him to be recognized like that. When you are sitting there for three to four years, you are just waiting for that chance and just keep thinking, ‘Boom,’ sleep at night, and hoping you get an opportunity. If it doesn’t come, it doesn’t come, and finally when it does, you just kill it. It’s a beautiful thing. We just keep going, more days, and more stacking, and see what we can get done.”
Here’s what else Smith has gotten done: He is among the NFL’s best quarterbacks this season not only in the standard stats, but also in the metrics that indicate the hardest things for quarterbacks to get right to a high degree over a long period of time.
Geno Smith's passer rating this season on…
Throws past the sticks: 129.6
Throws against two-deep coverage: 109.7
Throws under pressure: 92.1
Top 3 in these "degree of difficulty" throws. He's not just a feel-good story. He's a legitimate MVP candidate.
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) November 8, 2022
That’s where the Geno Smith story advances — it’s not about this or that thing, it’s about everything. Let’s dive into how Smith makes the hardest parts of quarterbacking look easy.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).
Demolishing disguised coverages.
Smith has seen some sort of disguised coverage on 98 of his passing attempts this season, and he’s completed 75 of those passes for five touchdowns and one interception. Eight of those completions were explosive plays, and on those, Smith threw for 216 yards, 77 yards after the catch, and three touchdowns. The thing with Smith is that if you show him something post-snap he didn’t see pre-snap, he’s less prone to check it to the flat than he is to throw deep and make you pay for your insolence.
This 40-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Lockett in Week 5 against the Saints is one of the most impressive throws any quarterback has made this season, and it’s made more audacious by the fact that New Orleans is showing a shallow two-safety look. You can see Smith check the play pre-snap, which was probably for a deep pass. The Saints responded by dropping both of their safeties deep post-snap, which would put most quarterbacks in a vise, forcing them to check down.
Not this guy.
Smith zapped the Los Angeles Chargers for two deep throws against flipped coverages in Week 7, and this 23-yard touchdown to receiver Marquise Goodwin was one of them. The Chargers had a two-deep pre-snap look before spinning to Cover-1, and Smith had no problem with that. Why? He had Goodwin one-on-one with cornerback J.C. Jackson, and safety Derwin James coming over late.
Creating shot plays against two-deep coverage.
We’ve talked over the last couple seasons about how the NFL’s increase in all kinds of two-deep coverage, and how that’s negatively affected quarterback play. This has not been the case for Smith in 2022. Against Cover-2, 2-Man, Cover-4, and Cover-6, Smith has completed 83 of 113 passes for 879 yards, 584 air yards, six touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 109.7. Among starting quarterbacks (at least 50 attempts against two-deep coverage), only Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles has a higher passer rating.
Smith is more prone to throw underneath and to the intermediate levels against two high safeties, which makes sense. But he’s also happy to split the goalposts, and because he’s so good at throwing with timing into tight spaces, he has the wherewithal to test these coverages successfully in ways lesser quarterbacks do not.
This 15-yard completion to D.K. Metcalf against the New York Giants in Week 8 was Prime Geno. The Seahawks had third-and-14 here, and the Giants were just trying to prevent anything deep with their Quarters coverage. Smith hit Metcalf on the intermediate whip route for 15 and the first down.
The Atlanta Falcons tried a lot of two-deep against the Seahawks in Week 3, and none of it worked. This 18-yard touchdown pass to tight end Will Dissly had Dissly beating dropping linebacker Troy Anderson at the start of his route, and then, against Cover-2, Dissly just sauntered into the end zone, right up the middle. Seattle tested those safeties with vertical routes to either side, and that was that.
Extending drives past the sticks.
On all throws past the sticks (attempts for a first down) regardless of down and distance, Smith has completed 62 of 101 passes for 1,091 yards, 872 air yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 129.6. Only Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins (136.0) and the aforementioned Jalen Hurts (130.1) have higher passer ratings among starting quarterbacks. And in critical situations — throws past the sticks on third-and-6 or longer — Smith has completed 11 of 17 passes for 132 yards, 131 air yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 127.6, fifth-best in the league.
Sometimes, as on this 17-yard completion on third-and-6 against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, it’s good to have a big, fast target like D.K. Metcalf.
But as was the case on this nine-yard completion to Tyler Lockett on third-and-8 against the Denver Broncos in Week 1, it was more about precision and timing when the need was most pressing.
Winning against pressure to all parts of the field.
On throws under pressure this season, Smith has completed 47 of 79 passes for 546 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 92.1. Only Joe Burrow (98.3) and Josh Allen (96.0) have higher passer ratings under pressure.
On this 27-yard pass to Lockett in Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers, Smith got rolled out of the pocket by defensive end Kerry Hyder Jr., but Lockett had the scramble rules on point, and when Smith made the cross-body throw, Lockett was there for it.
And on this 16-yard throw to Lockett against the Detroit Lions in Week 4, Smith stayed and re-set in the pocket despite pressure to his front side from end Charles Harris, sticking the throw on the intermediate comeback route.
Beating the blitz.
Against six or more pass-rushers this season, Smith has completed 16 of 24 passes for 193 yards, 81 air yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 105.0. Not quite at the level of the “Oh God, don’t blitz him or he’ll kill us” level of Dak Prescott or Patrick Mahomes, but it’s one more thing defenses have to monitor at a high level.
If Smith does see more than the base number of pass-rushers on a play, he’s once again just as likely to make you think twice about doing that with a remarkable response as he is to check down and live to fight another play. On this 32-yard pass to tight end Noah Fant against the Saints, Smith dealt with both the large number of pass-rushers and all the pre-snap line movement by rolling to his left and making a great throw to Fant at the boundary. This was a first-and-10 play near the end of the first half, and the Saints up 17-10, so nobody would have blamed Smith if he’d taken the checkdown to Metcalf on the out route.
Smith had other, better, ideas.
The Lions brought this Cover-0 blitz against Smith back in Week 4, and if you’re going to to that with the NFL’s worst pass defense, you’d better get home, or Smith is going to scald you for it.
All of this is sustainable.
One of the most telling moments of Smith’s season came not after a success, but after a failure. With 9:18 left in the third quarter of last Sunday’s game against the Cardinals, Smith threw an interception to linebacker Zaven Collins, and Collins returned it for a 30-yard pick-six that gave Arizona a 14-10 lead.
On his next two drives, Smith threw touchdown passes.
Geno Smith on his interception. “You have to move on. “ #Seahawks @CascadiasportsN pic.twitter.com/tMG4bjzLhR
— MazvitaMaraire (@MazvitaMaraire) November 7, 2022
“Geno’s ability to respond when things have gone good or bad has been really great throughout the course of the season,” offensive coordinator Shane Waldron said Tuesday. “I think this was the latest one of something that obviously was not something that we expected, a great play by them and all of a sudden it was a pick-six going the other way, but there was a lot more ball to be played right there. Geno came to the sideline with no flinch or no blink and was ready to play the next series. It was just a testament to how levelheaded he’s been and throughout the course of the game, not letting the play before affect the next play.”
There is a compelling resiliency to Smith’s current game, and to his entire career, born out of frustration and maybe never making it to the top of the mountain, but trying to get there anyway. In Smith’s case, it’s actually happened — and the ways in which it’s happened indicate that this is no half-season wonder.
This is the quarterback Geno Smith is now: The guy who makes all the hard things look easy.
