Early evening summary
Rishi Sunak’s closest parliamentary aide, Craig Williams, has apologised for placing a £100 bet on a July election three days before the prime minister announced the date for the poll. In an interview Sunak refused to say whether Williams knew about the timing of the election when he placed his bet. (See 4.51pm.)
That is all from me. But Amy Sedghi has just launched a new live blog that will be covering the ITV’s seven-party debate taking place tonight. You can read it here.
Yet another thinktank has said that Labour, like the Conservative party, is failing to acknowledge the need for more public spending after the election. This is from Stephen Millard, deputy director at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
⚡️Our @EconSteveM assessed the pledges in the main parties' manifestos around #PublicFinances and #Taxes...and here is his reaction ⚡️
— National Institute of Economic and Social Research (@NIESRorg) June 13, 2024
💷⬇️#GE2024 #GeneralElection24 @RoyalEconSoc pic.twitter.com/RKJwtJYxEW
Campaigners criticise Labour for not include pledge to tackle carer's allowance scandal in manifesto
It was “hugely disappointing” Labour had failed to commit to tackling the carer’s allowance scandal in its manifesto, campaigners said.
The unfair treatment of unpaid carers – highlighted in recent weeks through the Guardian’s reporting of carer’s allowance benefit overpayments – has generated public outrage and been routinely compared to the Post Office scandal.
Of the three main parties, so far only the Liberal Democrats – whose leader Ed Davey is a carer for his disabled teenage son – have promised to fix flaws in the carer’s allowance benefit that have led to tens of thousands of vulnerable carers unwittingly plunged into thousands of pounds of debt and in some cases prosecuted for fraud.
Carers Trust’s chief executive, Kirsty McHugh, said:
If it forms the next government, the [Labour] party needs to be brave and ambitious. It must overhaul carer’s allowance, introduce paid carers’ leave and ensure the National Care Service meets unpaid carers’ needs and enshrines their rights.
This should be a day one priority. Many of the UK’s seven million carers are at breaking point. There are 1.5 million people caring for more than 50 hours a week, while 28% of carers have been driven into poverty.
These are ordinary people trying to do the right thing by friends and family, filling holes left by our crumbling social care system. What they need is urgent action, whoever forms the next government.
Labour’s shadow welfare secretary Liz Kendall told the Guardian last week the carer’s allowance injustices were “unforgivable” and promised to “put the system right” if elected to government.
Corbyn accuses Starmer of 'rewriting history' after Starmer says he was certain Labour would lose 2019 election
Jeremy Corbyn has accused Keir Starmer of “rewriting history” when Starmer said last night he never expected Labour to win the 2019 election.
In the Sky News leaders special last night, Starmer used that line to justify why he had described Corbyn as someone who would make a great PM during the campaign. Starmer implied he was just being loyal to a colleague.
Asked about Starmer saying he was certain Labour would lose in 2019, Corbyn told PA Media:
Well, he never said that to me, at any time. And so I just think rewriting history is no help.
It shows double standards, shall we say, that he now says he always thought that, but he never said it at the time, or anything about it.
He was part of the campaign. He and I spoke together at events and I find it actually quite sad … He was in the shadow cabinet, he was at the clause V meeting. Both those meetings unanimously agreed the 2019 manifesto, and he was there.
Here is an Election Extra podcast, with Heather Stewart’s assessment of the Labour manifesto.
Labour manifesto plans for Lords reform don't address 'fundamental problem' with it, campaigners say
The Electoral Reform Society says the plans in Labour’s manifesto for House of Lords reform don’t address the “fundamental problem” with it.
This is what the manifesto says about the Lords.
The next Labour government will therefore bring about an immediate modernisation, by introducing legislation to remove the right of hereditary peers to sit and vote in the House of Lords. Labour will also introduce a mandatory retirement age. At the end of the parliament in which a member reaches 80 years of age, they will be required to retire from the House of Lords.
Labour will ensure all peers meet the high standards the public expect of them, and we will introduce a new participation requirement as well as strengthening the circumstances in which disgraced members can be removed. We will reform the appointments process to ensure the quality of new appointments and will seek to improve the national and regional balance of the second chamber.
Whilst this action to modernise the House of Lords will be an improvement, Labour is committed to replacing the House of Lords with an alternative second chamber that is more representative of the regions and nations. Labour will consult on proposals, seeking the input of the British public on how politics can best serve them.
And this is what Darren Hughes, chief executive of the ERS, said about the plans.
We agree with the statement in the manifesto that reform of the Lords is ‘long-overdue and essential’ and welcome that Labour is pledging to take the first steps to tackle some of the worst excesses of the upper chamber, such as its ballooning size and the fact we still have 92 all-male hereditary peers wielding influence over legislation due to birthright.
However, we do have concerns about the potentially arbitrary impact of an age cap at 80 for peers, as some are still very active and making valuable contributions over that age. Also, for peers starting their career in their late 20s and early 30s, as we now have, that is still effectively a guaranteed 50 years of unelected legislating, which is an absurd situation for a modern democracy.
While we welcome that Labour is proposing to take initial steps on Lords reform, the proposals in the manifesto alone fall short of addressing the fundamental problem with the second chamber: the unchecked and undemocratic way new members are added, with prime ministers able to stuff unlimited numbers of new peers into the Lords on a whim. The last three prime ministers alone have created more than 120 new peers between them.
Other party leaders are engaged in conventional campaigning, but the Lib Dems’ desire to ensure they contine to provide the most interesting photo opportunities means that Ed Davey’s schedule looks more like a month-long outward bound holiday. Today he was on an assault course at Arena Pursuits outdoor centre in Flimwell, Kent,
A little remarked upon justice policy in the Labour manifesto has been welcomed by the charity Children Heard And Seen, a charity in England and Wales that focuses solely on supporting children who have a parent in prison.
In their manifesto, Labour have stated that “the children of those who are imprisoned are at far greater risk of being drawn into crime than their peers. We will ensure that those young people are identified and offered support to break the cycle”.
This follows Kerry McCarthy’s recent 10-minute rule bill, calling for it to be a statutory requirement for the government to identify and support children with a parent in prison.
The UK currently has no national mechanism for identifying and supporting children with a parent in prison – so there is no exact number of how many children have parents in prison.
“This groundbreaking policy commitment is the first time the issue of parental imprisonment has been included in a major political party’s manifesto and it is welcomed by Children Heard and Seen,” said Sarah Burrows, the charity’s founder.
Sunak says publication of Labour's manifesto means voters now have 'crystal clear' choice on tax
In his TV interview Rishi Sunak also said the publication of the Labour manifesto showed that there was a “crystal clear” choice for people on tax. He said:
There’s a clear choice at this election. We published a manifesto that’s going to cut taxes for people in this country and the Labour manifesto that was published today made it clear that taxes are going to rise.
Multiple independent sources [eg, see 4.42pm] demonstrate that the tax burden under Labour will rise to the highest levels in history.
And in contrast, if I’m reelected, we will cut taxes for people at every stage of their life, cutting taxes for people at work, cutting tax for people who are self employed, cutting tax for people buying their first home, cutting tax for pensioners and cutting taxes for families. That’s the type of country I want to lead.
Sunak refuses to say if his parliamentary aide, Craig Williams, knew about election timing when he placed bet
Rishi Sunak has refused to say whether Craig Williams, his parliamentary private secretary, knew that Sunak was going to call a July election when he placed a bet on that, three days before the announcement.
In an interview with the BBC’s Vicki Young at the G7 summit in Italy, asked if Sunak knew that announcement was coming, Sunak replied:
It was very disappointing news. You will have seen Craig Williams say that it was a huge error of judgment.
Now there’s a independent inquiry that is ongoing, which is necessarily confidential, as well as independent, and you’ll appreciate that, given that, it wouldn’t be appropriate for me to comment while that’s ongoing.
When it was put to him that he could easily clear the matter up by answering the question now, Sunak repeated the point about wanting to let the inquiry proceed. Asked if he had spoken to the inquiry, he said it would not be right to comment.
Tory post-election tax rises, plus Labour's manifesto plans, would take tax burden to record level, says thinktank
In its response to the Labour manifesto, the Resolution Foundation, a thinktank focused on the needs of low and medium-income families, praises the plans to boost employment rights, saying they amount to “the biggest shake-up of the workplace in a generation, with the laudable aim of boosting the quality of work”.
But it says “this boldness contrasts with a politically cautious approach to the public finances, which means a future Labour chancellor could be left implementing significant tax rises and public service cuts over the next parliament.”
It says that that, under these plans, and mostly because of future tax rises already baked in under the Tories, the tax burden will rise to its highest level ever. It says:
Labour’s plans to raise taxes by £8.5bn a year over the next parliament, coupled with £23.5bn post-election tax rises announced by Jeremy Hunt in the last parliament, would leave the UK’s tax-to-GDP ratio rising from 36.5% in 2024-25 to 37.4% to 2028-29 – equivalent to a tax rise of £1,100 a year per household (in 2028-29 prices) – with the UK’s tax take reaching its highest on record.
This scale of this rising tax take in the next parliament would be modest compared to the last parliament (which rose by 3.3 percentage points) but comparable in scale to the 2001-05 parliament (when it also rose by 0.9 percentage points).
The decision to accept the continuation of the six-year freeze to tax thresholds would see the personal tax bills of a typical employee earning £30,000 rise by £180 a year by 2027-28.
And it says that Labour would oversee spending cuts in some departments because it is largely accepting government plans. It says:
Labour’s modest pledges to increase spending largely lie in departments that are already protected, such as education and health and social care. This means that an incoming Labour government would still need to deliver around £18bn of cuts to unprotected departments such as Transport, Justice and the Home Office. Neither party has said anything on how they intend to deliver these extremely challenging cuts.
Updated
What Labour manifesto says about relations with EU
The Conservatives has also issued a press release claiming that the Labour manifesto shows Keir Starmer will “unravel Brexit”.
This is based on the pledge in the document to “seek to negotiate a veterinary agreement to prevent unnecessary border checks and help tackle the cost of food”.
The Tories says EU officials have briefed that a deal of this kind would require the UK to accept oversight by the European court of justice. In their news release they quote Steve Barclay, the environment secretary, saying:
Today Keir Starmer has confirmed what he’s been hinting at for months – that Labour would once again make the UK a rule-taker from Brussels.
Others have argued that what is significant about the manifesto is how limited it is in terms of its ambition for a closer relationship with the EU. This is from Timothy Garton Ash, the writer and Europe expert
Foreign policy part of Labour's just-launched election manifesto. Hyper-cautious on Europe. It even repeats that ridiculous oxymoronic formula 'make Brexit work'. pic.twitter.com/3qlrHIisM4
— Timothy Garton Ash (@fromTGA) June 13, 2024
Foreign policy part of Labour’s just-launched election manifesto. Hyper-cautious on Europe. It even repeats that ridiculous oxymoronic formula ‘make Brexit work’.
This is what the manifesto says about relations with the EU.
With Labour, Britain will stay outside of the EU. But to seize the opportunities ahead, we must make Brexit work. We will reset the relationship and seek to deepen ties with our European friends, neighbours and allies. That does not mean reopening the divisions of the past. There will be no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement.
Instead, Labour will work to improve the UK’s trade and investment relationship with the EU, by tearing down unnecessary barriers to trade. We will seek to negotiate a veterinary agreement to prevent unnecessary border checks and help tackle the cost of food; help our touring artists; and secure a mutual recognition agreement for professional qualifications to help open up markets for UK service exporters.
Labour will seek an ambitious new UK-EU security pact to strengthen cooperation on the threats we face. We will rebuild relationships with key European allies, including France and Germany, through increased defence and security cooperation. We will seek new bilateral agreements and closer working with Joint Expeditionary Force partners. This will strengthen Nato and keep Britain safe.
Tories attack what they call 'Labour's tax trap manifesto'
The Conservatives are calling the Labour policy document a “tax trap manifesto”. The party put out this statement in response from Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor.
This is Labour’s tax trap manifesto which contains only tax rises and no tax cuts. Under Labour’s published plans, taxes will rise to levels never before seen in this country.
But that’s only the tax rises they’re telling you about – it doesn’t include the £2,094 of tax rises they’ll need to fill their £38.5bn unfunded spending commitments.
So what’s most important is not what’s in Labour’s manifesto, but it’s what they have kept out of it. They are refusing to rule out taxing your job, your home, your pension, your car, your business and they think they can get away with it without anyone holding them to account. Be under no illusion, from cradle to grave you will pay more taxes under Labour.
Labour has described the claim that it would need to raise taxes by around £2,000, over four years, because of unfunded spending commitments as nonsense.
Campaigners says Labour's manifesto plans to tackle poverty don't go far enough
Welfare experts have said that the proposals in Labour’s manifesto do not go far enough to tackle child poverty.
This is what the manifesto says about child poverty.
Child poverty has gone up by 700,000 under the Conservatives, with over four million children now growing up in a low-income family. Last year, a million children experienced destitution. This not only harms children’s lives now, it damages their future prospects, and holds back our economic potential as a country. Labour will develop an ambitious strategy to reduce child poverty. We will work with the voluntary sector, faith organisations, trade unions, business, devolved and local government, and communities to bring about change.
We will take initial steps to confront poverty by introducing free breakfast clubs in every primary school, protecting renters from arbitrary eviction, slashing fuel poverty, banning exploitative zero hours contracts, and improving support to help people get into good work.
Alison Garnham, chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group, said:
A child poverty strategy is imperative and extremely welcome but its first action point has to be abolishing the two-child limit which more than any other policy has driven child poverty to record levels.
There needs to be some real ambition on family incomes and real change won’t come for the four million children in poverty until the two- child limit and benefit cap are scrapped and the rate of child benefit is increased.
Paul Carberry, chief executive of Action for Children, said:
Labour’s proposed strategy to reduce child poverty won’t get off the ground until they ditch the cruel two-child limit and benefit cap policies. We urge them to think again on this.
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation, a thinktank, also argued that Labour’s welfare proposals were lacking in ambition. It posted these on X.
This General Election, it’s essential that we know what parties will do to tackle hardship if they are elected.
— Joseph Rowntree Foundation (@jrf_uk) June 13, 2024
We have been looking at the party manifestos and considering whether there is a plan. 🔽 (1/7)
This General Election, it’s essential that we know what parties will do to tackle hardship if they are elected.
We have been looking at the party manifestos and considering whether there is a plan.
Today’s Labour manifesto acknowledges the million children who experienced destitution. They have promised:
- A child poverty strategy
- A homelessness strategy built alongside civil society
- To end the “mass dependence on emergency food parcels”
They propose “initial steps to confront poverty” such as:
- Protecting renters from arbitrary eviction
- Free breakfast clubs in every primary school
- Banning exploitative zero hours contracts But... (3/7)
What we haven’t seen today is any detail on:
- How Universal Credit could be used to tackle poverty
- What the plan is to end dependence on food parcels
- Local crisis support - How to support people with no recourse to public funds
This manifesto includes some steps to address poverty, but it falls short of the clear urgent action plan needed to tackle hardship for millions going without essentials.
The urgency of the situation requires rapid action.(5/7)
The missing details need to be filled in quickly, without them these plans do not match the scale of the challenge when we have almost four million people experiencing destitution in a single year. (6/7)
Whoever is in government from July 5th needs to take action and accept moral responsibility for supporting people in severe hardship through the coming weeks and months. To read more about the policies that would shift the dial on hardship: https://jrf.org.uk/deep-poverty-and-destitution/designing-out-hardship-and-destitution… (7/7)
Lib Dems calls for Cabinet Office inquiry into Craig Williams' election date bet
The Liberal Democrats have called for a Cabinet Office inquiry into how Craig Williams, and Tory candidate and aide to Rishi Sunak, came to put a bet on a July election just three days before the date was announced.
Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper said:
Rishi Sunak must stop being so weak and call a Cabinet Office inquiry into this latest scandal.
This inquiry is needed to get to the bottom of who knew what when, and uncover whether Craig Williams knew the election date at the time the bet was placed.
The Conservative party has been mired in endless sleaze and scandal for years and the British people are sick to their back teeth with it.
And Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, said there were now “very serious questions” around Williams continuing as the Tory candidate in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr. Speaking to the press after his party’s manifesto launch, he said:
I don’t know how quickly that investigation will be concluded, but clearly there are very, very serious questions about the propriety of him remaining as a candidate at all in this election.
The Survation MRP poll suggests Labour is on course to beat Williams in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, by 37% to 28%.
General elections normally end with the resignation of one or more of the party leaders, but in this campaign we’ve already had a resignation announcement, from Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader. Libby Brooks has written a good analysis of what this means, and she says it could hasten the Scottish party’s decision to break away from its London counterpart. Here is an extract.
[Ross’s] actions were so apparently self-serving and clumsily executed that even Ruth Davidson, the leader credited with reviving Tory fortunes in Scotland in the 2010s, and normally scrupulous in leaving her successors be, was moved to observe that “part of the job is to take the punches. And that’s what leadership kind of is.”
But it is an idea from Davidson’s election contest that may yet yield what some believe to be a silver lining: should the Scottish Tories split from the UK party entirely – particularly given its likely rightward tack after its widely anticipated defeat on 4 July – and reform as a new centre-right party more attuned to the Scottish political landscape?
Proposed by Murdo Fraser, the party veteran who stood against her in 2011, and rejected by members at the time, the idea has “never been more pertinent,” says Andy McIver, former Scottish Conservative adviser, podcaster and consultant who helped Fraser hone his pitch.
And here is Libby’s article.
For a more positive take on the Labour manifesto, read this from Will Hutton, the writer, intellectual and Observer columnist. He says Keir Starmer’s manifesto could be more transformative than Attlee’s in 1945.
The Labour manifesto in its unassuming , unsung but purposeful way is as radical and potentially more enduringly transformative than Labour’s in 1945. Everyone under-rated Attlee, his ambition and capacity to bring it off. They are doing the same with Starmer.
— Will Hutton (@williamnhutton) June 13, 2024
The Labour manifesto in its unassuming , unsung but purposeful way is as radical and potentially more enduringly transformative than Labour’s in 1945. Everyone under-rated Attlee, his ambition and capacity to bring it off. They are doing the same with Starmer.
Ed Balls says Labour's manifesto a 'straitjacket' that will make Starmer's first year in government 'very difficult'
Ed Balls has described Labour’s manifesto as a “straitjacket” that will make Keir Starmer’s first year in office “very difficult”.
Speaking on his Political Currency podcast, which he co-hosts with George Osborne, Ball, who was Gordon Brown’s most important adviser when Brown was shadow chancellor and then chancellor, and who served as shadow chancellor himself under Ed Miliband, said:
If you are a Labour government, the one thing you cannot afford to do is break your promises on the macro-economy and your kind of tax pledges. You can’t afford to do a Liz Truss.
But I think people will look back on this manifesto – which is now seen as cautious and careful – and think of it as being something which was very constraining, and a potentially risky thing to do for Labour, because this manifesto is absolutely boxing Labour in.
It will be seen as a straitjacket, with tough fiscal rules and limits on borrowing, big commitments not to raise income tax or VAT or national insurance ….
For Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves there are huge expectations, no money, little room for manoeuvre, inherited plans which are very tight, and an economy which isn’t growing. So I think that creates a big set of expectations and that is the consequence of the manifesto strategy. This manifesto makes the first year in government for Labour very difficult.
Here is the video of Joe Pike from the BBC doing a very good job doorstepping the Tory candidate Craig Williams, who is being investigated over allegations he took advantage of insider information when he placed a bet on Rishi Sunak calling an election for July. It was Pike who got Williams to say this was a “huge error of judgment”. (See 1.11pm.)
EXCL: Tory candidate (and Sunak’s closest parliamentary aide) Craig Williams refuses to tell me whether he had any inside information when he placed a bet on the date of the general election.
— Joe Pike (@joepike) June 13, 2024
But he says: “I clearly made a huge error of judgement”. pic.twitter.com/gCJWNaocoT
Updated
Experts at the Institute for Government thinktank have also said the plans in the Labour manifesto are not enough to avert the cuts facing some public services after the election.
These are from Gemma Tetlow, the IfG’s chief economist.
Given that the government has not been upfront about the implausibility of its spending plans beyond this year, it’s not surprising that the opposition has not been either but the electorate are in for a nasty shock whoever wins the election
Given that the government has not been upfront about the implausibility of its spending plans beyond this year, it's not surprising that the opposition has not been either but the electorate are in for a nasty shock whoever wins the election pic.twitter.com/qUJVoYcJL3
— Gemma Tetlow (@gemmatetlow) June 13, 2024
— Gemma Tetlow (@gemmatetlow) June 13, 2024
And these are from Nick Davies, programme director at the IfG.
My main takeaway is that the Labour manifesto (unsurprisingly for an opposition party) does a much better job acknowledging the scale of the challenges facing public services. BUT the party doesn’t yet have solutions that are equal to the task pic.twitter.com/oKKxNZ0X3o
— Nick Davies (@NJ_Davies) June 13, 2024
My main takeaway is that the Labour manifesto (unsurprisingly for an opposition party) does a much better job acknowledging the scale of the challenges facing public services. BUT the party doesn’t yet have solutions that are equal to the task
Oppositions understandably only focus on detailed policy development once they are in government and the manifesto announces reviews on critical issues like teacher retention and sentencing, but it should have done more to prepare the public for the difficult trade-offs coming
If Labour win they’ll need to make unpopular decisions quite quickly eg to deal with full prisons. But there’s not much in the manifesto to give them a mandate for these. Though, based on current polling, they might feel they’ll have a big enough majority for it not to matter...
Updated
Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests 'genuine change' will require more extra spending than Labour manifesto proposes
The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank says Labour’s manifesto does not contain the sort of spending plans needed to protect public services from future cuts.
In an analysis of the manifesto plans, written by the its director Paul Johnson, the IFS says Labour’s focus on growth is welcome and that some of its plans are “better than a shopping list of half-baked policy announcements” (an apparent reference to the Tory manifesto). But the IFS goes on:
But delivering genuine change will almost certainly also require putting actual resources on the table. And Labour’s manifesto offers no indication that there is a plan for where the money would come from to finance this.
Here is an excerpt.
This was not a manifesto for those looking for big numbers. The public service spending increases promised in the “costings” table are tiny, going on trivial. The tax rises, beyond the inevitable reduced tax avoidance, even more trivial. The biggest commitment, to the much vaunted “green prosperity plan”, comes in at no more than £5bn a year, funded in part by borrowing and in part by “a windfall tax on the oil and gas giants”.
Beyond that, almost nothing in the way of definite promises on spending despite Labour diagnosing deep-seated problems across child poverty, homelessness, higher education funding, adult social care, local government finances, pensions and much more besides. Definite promises though not to do things. Not to have debt rising at the end of the forecast. Not to increase tax on working people. Not to increase rates of income tax, National Insurance, VAT or corporation tax.
One public service where there are big promises is on the NHS. Labour has recommitted to the workforce plan, to getting rid of all waiting times more than 18 weeks, and to more hospitals. Big promises, but that will require big spending too.
All that will leave Labour with a problem. On current forecasts, and especially with an extra £17.5bn borrowing over five years to fund the green prosperity plan, this leaves literally no room – within the fiscal rule that Labour has signed up to – for any more spending than planned by the current government. And those plans do involve cuts both to investment spending and to spending on unprotected public services. Yet Sir Keir Starmer effectively ruled out such cuts. How they will square the circle in government we do not know.
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are normally happy to be accused of being fiscally cautious. But if the IFS, which has never been seen as a bastion of leftism, is more in favour of putting up taxes than Labour, then some in the party might start to worry.
Updated
Cutting hospital waiting list 'profound political challenge' for next government, says thinktank
Dealing with hospital lists will be a “profound politcal challenge”, Dr Sarah Scobie, acting director of research at the Nuffield Trust thinktank, said today.
She was speaking after the latest NHS England figures showed the waiting list going up again, for the first time in seven months. (See 9.56am.)
Scobie said promised progress on reducing the waitling list had “stalled”. She went on:
It is hard to overstate what a profound political challenge the huge waiting list has become now.
All the political parties recognise the importance of bringing down waiting times but this huge backlog is going to be a constant spectre for the next government, whoever gets the keys to No 10 in July.
Truly tackling it effectively will be something that takes time, investment, patience, and hard work – and it’s likely that on current plans it will be extremely stretching to eliminate it before the end of this decade.
The Green New Deal Rising group says it was behind the disruption of Keir Starmer’s speech at the Labour manifesto launch.
BREAKING: We just disrupted @Keir_Starmer because his manifesto fails to deliver for our generation.
— Green New Deal Rising (@GNDRising) June 13, 2024
When it comes to tackling the climate crisis, and improving the quality of life for everyone in this country, Labour’s plans don’t touch the sides.#YouthDeserveBetter. pic.twitter.com/zddqRM7Io5
BREAKING: We just disrupted @Keir_Starmer because his manifesto fails to deliver for our generation.
When it comes to tackling the climate crisis, and improving the quality of life for everyone in this country, Labour’s plans don’t touch the sides.#YouthDeserveBetter.
Sunak aide Craig Williams apologises for placing bet on July election, saying it was 'huge error of judgment'
Craig Williams, the Tory candidate and aide to Rishi Sunak, has apologised for placing a £100 bet on a July election just three days before the prime minister named the date.
Speaking to the BBC, Williams said:
I clearly made a huge error of judgment, that’s for sure, and I apologise.
But Williams refused to say whether he placed the bet on the basis of insider information about when Sunak was planning to hold the election. In response to questions about this, he told the BBC:
I will not be expanding on my statement because it’s an independent process.
The Gambling Commission are looking at it now.
This morning David Cameron, the foreign secretary, condemned Williams’ bet as “very foolish”.
Updated
John Swinney attacked by Tories and Labour over NHS failings at FMQs at Holyrood
With all party leaders wishing the Scotland team well for their first Euros match on Friday against Germany, first minister’s questions was a great deal less testy than the BBC’s Scottish leaders’ debate which took place on Tuesday, but Douglas Ross picked up on one of the audience questions from that evening to press John Swinney about ambulance waiting times.
Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, accused Swinney of not taking responsibility for Scotland’s NHS, telling him there was “a crisis at every single level” of the service. Swinney insisted there was a “focused effort” on NHS reform and recruitment.
Labour leader Anas Sarwar also went in on NHS failings. It’s not unusual for both opposition leaders to attack the Scottish government on public service failings, but I wonder if they were particularly spurred this week by that BBC debate, where the audience were clearly frustrated with the state of waiting times and accusing the first minister of “passing the buck” to the UK government.
Both Labour and Tory staffers I spoke to afterwards constrasted this mood with a year ago, when audiences were more willing to give the SNP a hearing.
How Labour would raise £8.6bn in taxes, and how it would spent it
The Labour manifesto is now on the party’s website.
And here is the chart showing that Labour would raise taxes by £7.4bn, by 2028-29.
Another table shows that Labour would also raise £1.2bn from its windfall tax on energy companies for its green prosperity plan.
Alert readers will notice that there is a gap between the amount Labour plans to raise from extra taxes (£7.4bn, rounded up) and the amount of extra spending it plans (£4.8bn).
Labour is reportedly saying that the projected extra tax revenue is higher than the planned extra spending because it is being cautious.
But, by coincidence (or not?), the gap between the two figures is very close to the £2.5bn cost in this financial year of the two-child benefit cap.
Labour has refused to commit to removing the cap, which is a major contribution to child poverty, on the grounds that it has to take hard choices and that it will only make promises it can afford.
But Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, gave an intriguing answer when asked about this by Amol Rajan on the Today programme this morning. Rather than talking about the policy directly, McFadden mentioned Gordon Brown and he told the programme:
I remember when [Brown] was shadow chancellor in the run up to the 1997 election, and he was very careful about what to promise and he was right to be careful.
But I also remember another thing; when he became chancellor and he had the power to change things, he had a fantastic record on child poverty. And we share the ambition when elected to attack child poverty and do more about it.
Updated
Q: [From Jim Pickard from the FT] The private equity industry is lobbying hard against the carried interest tax rise. Are you still committed to that, or is there some wriggle room?
Starmer says the plans have been set out. He says Rachel Reeves is highlighting the page in the manifesto saying everything is fully funded. She wrote every word of it, he says.
And that was the final question.
Q: [From the Guardian’s Pippa Crerar] Sunak has struggled to lead a government of integrity. Will you do any better?
Yes, says Starmer. He is determined to do better. He will get on with changing ethical codes from day one.
But you don’t just need codes; you need action, he says.
We are going to turn this around, and put politics back in the service of working people.
Q: [From Kitty Donaldson from the i] What will you do in the first week of a Labour government?
Starmer says the first thing he will do is insist politics is devoted to service, to putting country first, ahead of party.
Q: [From Jason Groves from the Daily Mail] Are you happy fighting the election promising higher taxes of £8bn, while the Tories promise cuts of £17bn?
Starmer says every day the Tories are making unfunded promises. But the less from Liz Truss is, if you make unfunded promises, working people pay the price.
Q: Did you really think Jeremy Corbyn would be a great PM?
Starmer says he never thought Labour would win the next election.
After that, he realised Labour must change. Corbyn is no longer in the party. That is how much change he has introduced.
Q: [From Ben Riley-Smith from the Telegraph] Can you confim taxes will go up under your plans?
Starmer says there is no tax rise in the manifesto not already announced.
There is no plan in the manifesto requiring tax rises beyond these, he says.
Q: What is the plan for new asylum seekers who arrive in the UK illegally? Can they apply? And if they can, isn’t than an incentive to come?
Starmer says at the moment asylum seekers cannot be processed. That means they cannot be removed. “We’ve got to fix that,” he says.
He says the new border security command will smash the gangs running this trade.
Q: Do you have a plan to take children out of poverty?
Starmer says there is a strategy for this. Wealth creation is part of that.
Starmer says immigration is too high. The government has lost control of it, mainly because it does not have a skills strategy. The goernment is using immigration as a growth strategy. He will have a skills strategy instead.
Q: Are you worried you might win just because people hate the Tories?
Starmer says it is not enough for people to hate the Tories. That is why he has changed Labour.
He says he is enjoying the campaign. He is asking people to give him mandate.
Q: [From Christopher Hope for GB News] Are you on course for a one-party socialist state? Is that a good thing? And are the Tories just claiming this to suppress the vote?
Starmer says not a single vote has been cast yet. But he does want a mandate for change.
Q: [From ITV’s Robert Peston] You are betting on growth. But what happens if growth does not happen quickly enough to stop cuts being needed within a year.
Starmer says he has run a public service. There will be no return to austerity.
And Labour’s plans do involve new money going into public services, he says.
Q: [From Sky’s Beth Rigby] There is nothing new in this. Rishi Sunak threw the kitchen sink at his manifesto. You won’t even take the safety catch off. Is this a Captain Caution manifesto?
No, says Starmer. It is a serious plan.
He says he is a candidate for PM, not a candidate to run a circus.
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Starmer takes questions from reporters
Starmer is now taking questions from journalists.
Q: [From Chris Mason from the BBC] Talk to the voter who fears that you might only really say what you will do after you win.
Starmer says Labour’s manifesto is a manifesto for change. It is a rejection of the idea that we can’t do any better, based on four years of hard work.
He understands why people are cynical. For many people hope has been beaten out of them. He will neve accept defeatism.
(That did not really address Mason’s question at all.)
Starmer says he is fed up of politicians “lecturing young people about their responsibility to our nation” when they sacrificed so much during Covid.
He is referring to Rishi Sunak, and his plan for national service.
And he speaks about how important it is for parents to know their children can have a better life.
When he was growing up, they were not wealthy, he says. He says he knows what it is like to be embarrased to to bring mates home because the carpet is threadbare, or the window cracked.
But he was to blame for the cracked window, he joked. He did that with a football.
He says his parents were always comforted by the idea their children would have better opportunities. He wants to restore that, he says.
Here is a picture of the protester who interrupted Starmer’s speech earlier. (See 11.30am.)
Starmer is now using the passage briefed overnight about how wealth creation is his priority. (See 9.14am.)
We will reform the planning rules, a choice ignored for 14 years, and build the homes and infrastructure up.
We will level up your rights of work, a choice ignored for 14 years, and raise your wages and your security.
We will create a new industrial strategy, a choice ignored for 14 years, and we will back it with a national wealth fund, invest in clean steel imports, giga batteries, and we will create 650,000 new jobs for communities like yours.
Starmer says Labour rejects Farage-style 'politics as pantomime'
Starmer tells the story, which he has used in many campaign speeches, about meeting a couple who decided they could not afford another child after Liz Truss’s mini-budget sent interest rates soaring.
So I make no apologies for being careful with working people’s money. And no apologies for ruling out tax rises on working people.
And he says he has a message for people complaining there is no surprise in the manifest, no “rabbit out of the hat”.
If you want politics as pantomime, I hear Clacton is nice this time of year.
Clacton is where Nigel Farage is standing.
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Starmer says the manifesto is a credible long-term plan, with clear, long-term steps.
These are from ITV’s Joel Hills, who has started leafing through the manifesto (which is not online yet).
Labour’s manifesto shows it plans to raise £8.5 billion a year from tax rises + crackdown on avoidance by 2028/29.
— Joel Hills (@ITVJoel) June 13, 2024
Sounds like a lot but pretty modest (Lib Dems want to raise £19 bn). And a drop in the fiscal ocean vs total forecast tax take of £1,191 billion by 2028/29… pic.twitter.com/tbfh8s3lD5
Labour’s manifesto shows it plans to raise £8.5 billion a year from tax rises + crackdown on avoidance by 2028/29.
Sounds like a lot but pretty modest (Lib Dems want to raise £19 bn). And a drop in the fiscal ocean vs total forecast tax take of £1,191 billion by 2028/29…
Labour has committed to the freeze in national insurance and income tax thresholds until 2028 so taxes would still rise significantly under a Labour government - although not on the scale of the rises we’ve seen in past parliament.
— Joel Hills (@ITVJoel) June 13, 2024
Labour has committed to the freeze in national insurance and income tax thresholds until 2028 so taxes would still rise significantly under a Labour government - although not on the scale of the rises we’ve seen in past parliament.
Labour launches ‘manifesto for wealth creation’ and ‘plan to change Britain’
Starmer describes the manifesto and “a manifesto for wealth creation, a plan to change Britain”.
Labour will start to rebuild Britain, served by the old argument – that we serve working people, he says.
He sees so much potential in Britain. He refers to meeting someone who could not afford to buy his own home. And he tells the story again of his visit to Alder Hey hospital where he was told the most common reason for children having operations were tooth decay.
Imagine what would happen if a Labour government were addressing these problems, he says.
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Keir Starmer is taking the stage now. He is full of praise for the earlier speakers, particularly Polly, saying he knows how intimidating speaking on a stage like this is.
He starts his speech, but someone begins heckling him. He does not seem bothered. “We gave up being a party of protest five years ago,” he claims. The protester is swiftly silenced or removed.
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The next speaker is Polly, an A level student in the middle of her exams and a new Labour party member. She has recently turned 18, and will be voting Labour, she says.
Young people felt forgotten during Covid. There have been lasting effects, with algorithm exam results affecting people’s choices down the line.
And while people were following the Covid rules, they were partying in Downing Street, she says.
She says she is also excited by Labour’s environmental plans.
Daniel introduces the next speaker, Nathaniel Dye, who has terminal cancer.
He says he will be lucky to live another three years.
When he was first diagnosed, it looked as though he might be able to live cancer free.
But the cancer had spread, and now it is terminal.
he says he spent more than 100 days waiting for cancer treatement when the national target was 62 days. He can’t help thinking what might have happened if he had been treated earlier.
The system has “badly let me down”, he says.
Labour has a real plan to ensure people get the treatment they need before it is too late, he says.
He goes on:
If I’ve learned anything from my sorry experience, it is that time is of the essence. And I know that Wes Streeting, a cancer survivor himself will give everything to get our NHS back up to speed.
He says he won’t live to see the NHS turned round by Labour. But he lives in hope about it happening.
The next speaker is Daniel, who lives in east London. He lives with his partner and their two children in a one-bed flat, which is practically a bedsit, he says.
They have no space, he says. It is a struggle for his children. His children find it hard at at school because they don’t have their own space, or their own beds at home, so they don’t sleep well.
He says he graduated from university, and he has a good job. He has tried to do the right thing. But there is no hope of buying a home. And renting privately is like having a mortgage.
He says he welcomes Labour’s plans to build more homes, and the help on offer for first time buyers.
He says for the last 14 years they have struggled with turmoil and uncertainty. Labour is the only party offering something different.
Richard Walker, the head of the Iceland supermarket chain, is the next speaker. He says the next government has to prioritise growth.
From talking to customers, he knows how the cost of living crisis is affecting people, he says.
He says he has real hope that, under Labour, the UK can turn its back on the grim years of Conservative mismanagement.
Starmer launches Labour's manifesto
The Labour manifesto launch event is starting.
After the shadow cabinet come in, Keir Starmer arrives with Angela Rayner.
Rayner starts, welcoming people to Manchester, “the home of the co-operative movement”. It is her home too, she says.
She says she has been on her battle bus hearing the country crying out for change.
The country cannot afford five more years of high taxes, low growth and broken Tory promises, she says.
Council tax reform 'not something we're planning to do', says Labour's Pat McFadden
In the Sky News leaders special last night Keir Starmer refused to rule out Labour having a council tax revaluation in England. English council tax bands are still based on property valuations from more than 30 years ago.
Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, was on the Today programme this morning and he was notably evasive when asked about council tax.
Asked if Labour would recalculate council tax bands, McFadden just said there was nothing in Labour’s tax plans to justify any change in tax rates beyond what has already been announced. Asked why it made sense to keep a system based on property prices from when Mikhail Gorbachev was leading the Soviet Union, McFadden repeated what he had said.
Asked how he could justify not having a revaluation, when council tax is particularly regressive, he replied: “There’s nothing in our plans that requires a change, or other taxes.
Pressed on this again, he said Labour’s priorities were the ones set out in its first steps for change. But he did eventually say reforming council tax was “not something that we’re planning to do”.
A council tax revaluation could lead to many, or most, homeowners paying less council tax. But people in London and the south of England could end up paying more, which is why political parties are nervous about the idea.
Plaid says Welsh government should get revenue from Crown Estate in Wales
Plaid Cymru is also calling for higher windfall taxes on energy companies, and for Wales to get revenue from the Crown Estate in Wales.
Ap Iorwerth said:
The lack of control over our natural resources means that we are energy-rich but fuel-poor. Plaid Cymru will fight for economic fairness by increasing windfall taxes and demanding the transfer of powers over the Crown Estate to create green jobs and build prosperity.
For Wales, fourteen years of Tory cuts and chaos have cut our public services to the bone but there is no sign that a Labour government will offer any meaningful change either. Our communities have been left to pay the price of decades of underinvestment from both London parties.
On 4 July, we can send a message that Wales won’t be taken for granted any longer and that’s only by electing a strong group of Plaid Cymru MPs that will always demand fairness for their square mile and put Wales’ best interests first in Westminster.
Plaid says Wales needs fair funding deal from Westminster, arguing it's lost £4bn from its share of HS2 investment
Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid Cymru leader, is speaking now at the Plaid launch. He says he thinks there is an appetite for change at this election.
The manifesto is based on the theme of fairness, he says.
Plaid is calling for the abolition of the Barnett formula, the system used to allocate UK funding for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. He says a needs-based system should be used instead.
And he says Wales has lost out because it has not had its share of Hs2 funding. The UK government said this was a project for England and Wales, even though the line will not operate in Wales. He says as a result Wales has lost out by £4bn.
The next government should offer fair funding for Wales, he says.
And he says, unlike Labour, Plaid is not afraid of spelling out the damage caused by Brexit. Plaid wants the UK to rejoin the single market and the customs union, he says.
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Liz Saville Roberts, the Plaid Cymru leader at Westminster, is speaking at the Plaid manifesto launch in Cardiff.
She attacks Keir Starmer for parachuting candidates into safe Labour constituencies – she seems to be referring in particular to Torsten Bell, the former Resolution Foundation chief executive, who was selected at the last minute as Labour’s candidate for Swansea West, despite having no particular links with the city – and says Plaid should show Labour there are no safe seats in Wales.
And she goes on to attack Labour for accepting Tory spending plans.
Rhun ap Iorwerth launches Plaid Cymru's manifesto
Plaid Cymru’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, is about to launch his party’s manifesto.
There is a live feed here.
Labour candidates told they are campaigning too much in their own seats
Labour election candidates have been told they are doing too much campaigning in their own safe seats and must spend more time in battleground constituencies, causing friction with candidates who are concerned about a backlash from Labour voters, Jessica Elgot reports.
Farage claims he could lead national opposition to Labour
Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has claimed that he could lead a national opposition to Labour.
Referring to a recent poll putting Reform UK on 17%, only one point behind the Conservatives on 18%, Farage told LBC: “I think we are very close to a tipping point.”
He said he thought “something new is going to emerge on the centre-right” of politics. And he went on:
Do I think I’m capable of leading a national opposition to a Labour party with a big majority, where I can stand up and hold them to account on issues? Yes.
I would be prepared to lead the centre-right in this country, a centre-right that stands up for small business, a centre-right that believes in borders, a centre-right that isn’t scared of standing up for the British people.
Farage has suggested that the Conservatives and Reform UK could end up merging before the end of the decade, in a process he has described as a reverse takeover by Reform UK, and he believes he could lead the new party. Some Tories would welcome this prospect, but many view the idea with horror.
In his Sky News interview this morning David Cameron claimed that Rishi Sunak was “totally in command” during last night’s Sky leaders special. He said:
You see it in cabinet, he is absolutely at the top of his game … I saw someone [in the Sky event] who was totally in command of the detail, of the brief.
A snap YouGov poll last night suggests viewers thought Keir Starmer won rather than Sunak, by 64% to 36%. The full YouGov tables are here.
In his Sky News interview Cameron also came out with a memorable response when asked what he would do next if Labour won the election. He replied:
If my mother had wheels she’d be a bicycle, I don’t answer questions beginning with the word if.
Hospital waiting list figure for England rises for first time in 7 months, to 7.57m, figures show
The waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England has risen for the first time in seven months, PA Media reports. PA says:
An estimated 7.57 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of April, relating to 6.33 million patients – up slightly from 7.54 million treatments and 6.29 million patients at the end of March, NHS England said.
The list hit a record high in September 2023 with 7.77 million treatments and 6.50 million patients.
David Cameron denies being 'apoplectic' about Sunak's decision to miss international D-day commemoration
David Cameron, the foreign secretary, has rejected claims that he was “apoplectic” about Rishi Sunak’s’ decision to miss the international part of the D-day commemorations.
In an interview with Kay Burley on Sky News this morning, Cameron refused to comment on reports saying that he had tried to persuade Sunak to stay longer at the D-day event.
But, when Burley said that a report in the Sunday Times said he did try to get Sunak to change his mind, Cameron replied:
What I would say is, stories you read in newspapers where ‘I was apoplectic’, I absolutely wasn’t at all. There’s often third-person hearsay in some of these newspaper columns.
In a separate interview, on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, Cameron said it was “time to move on to the substance” after this row, and he said Sunak had a record of supporting veterans. He said:
Prime ministers have to make lots of difficult decisions about when to go to things, and when to leave things, and who to see and all the rest of it.
And to be fair to Rishi, he went to the key event in Portsmouth with all of the D-day veterans in the UK, and then he went to the key event above the British Normandy beaches, that was again a beautiful event and he met lots of veterans there.
Then he left to go back to the UK and then immediately said he had made a mistake and he had wished he had stayed, and I think we should should leave it there. Because that’s the sort of guy he is, he made a mistake, instead of digging in and defending it, he said: ‘actually, no, no, I got that one wrong I should’ve stayed’.
In a report in the Sunday Times about the D-day debacle, Tim Shipman said:
One of Cameron’s closest allies also let it be known that they had advised Sunak to “do” the full schedule.
Another ally pointed out that in his 2014 party conference speech as leader, Cameron talked about how the then 70th anniversary of D-Day had been “the best moment of my year”, and that when he was prepping for the speech he told aides: “There’s a risk I may start crying here, because it gets me so emotional.”
A Whitehall source said Cameron was “apoplectic” about Sunak’s decision but, when asked why he had not “picked Sunak up by his lapels”, he said: “There is only so much I can do.”
Labour says wealth creation ‘is our number one priority’ as it prepares to launch manifesto
Good morning. Keir Starmer is launching Labour’s election manifesto today. He is offering stability, and one consequence of that is that Labour has been running a campaign focused on core policy pledges that have been well publicised already. It’s a no-surprises approach, and in keeping with that the document won’t contain any big reveals.
Instead, as Kiran Stacey and Rowena Mason write in their overnight preview, Starmer will stress Labour’s commitment to growth and wealth creation.
And here is an extract from Starmer’s speech, released by the party in advance overnight, driving home this point. Starmer will say:
Some people say that how you grow the economy is not a central question - that it’s not about how you create wealth, but how you tax it, how you spend it, how you slice the cake, that’s all that matters.
So let me be crystal clear - this manifesto is a total rejection of that argument, because if you transform the nature of the jobs market, change the infrastructure that supports investment into our economy, reform the planning regime, start to unlock the potential of billions upon billions in projects that are ready to go, held up by the blockers of aspiration, then that does so much more to our long-term growth prospects.
The same is true of our public services. If we could grow the economy at anything like the level the last Labour government did, that’s an extra £70bn worth of investment for our public services.
Wealth creation is our number one priority. Growth is our core business - the end and the means of national renewal. The mandate we seek from Britain at this election is for economic growth.
This changed Labour party has a plan for growth. We are pro-business and pro-worker. The party of wealth creation.
We have a plan in this manifesto that represents a total change in direction, that is laser-focused on our cause. A government back in the service of you and your family.
Starmer has said this sort of thing many times before but, if he really means it, it is a bold position for a Labour leader. The last prime minister as growth obsessed as this was Liz Truss. Starmer would hate the comparison, and Labour’s plan to reboot the economy has nothing in common with hers.
But Starmer might be a bit more comfortable being compared to another former opposition leader who is most associated with with the ‘how you grow the cake is more important than how you share it out’ argument. In her day they had regular press conferences during election campaigns, and here is a transcript from one of those press conferences, in April 1979, where, Starmer-style, she was going on about the importance of replacing “a cake of the exactly same size” with “a steadily increasing size of cake”.
It was Margaret Thatcher, of course, and here is an extract from a speech she gave a few weeks earlier setting out her cake theory in more detail.
The painful truth is that there is no crock of gold.
We can improve our position as a nation only by working together to create greater wealth.
We cannot do it by each fighting for a bigger share of the existing cake.
The cake is too small; the fight too damaging; and the result, impoverishment, cynicism, and conflict.
It will be the job of the next Conservative government to set the economy on a new course of expansion.
Replace “crock of gold” with “magic money tree”, and “Conservative” with “Labour”, and this could be a line from Starmer’s speech later.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10.30am: Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid Cymru leader, launches his party’s manifesto in Cardiff.
11am: Keir Starmer launches the Labour manifesto in Manchester.
8.30pm: ITV holds a seven-party debate, featuring Penny Mordaunt for the Conservatives, Angela Rayner for Labour Daisy Cooper for the Liberal Democrats, Stephen Flynn for the SNP, Nigel Farage for Reform UK, Carla Denyer for the Green party and Rhun ap Iorwerth for Plaid Cymru.
And Sunak is at the G7 summit in Italy.
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