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The National (Scotland)
The National (Scotland)
National
Xander Elliards

General Election exit poll predicts winner of every seat in Scotland – see full list

THE General Election exit poll has predicted the result of every seat in the UK, but should be taken with a pinch of salt in Scotland.

Over the whole of the UK, the Ipsos exit poll projected Labour would win 410 MPs, the Tories 131, and the SNP just 10.

Reform UK were projected to win 13 MPs, the Greens two, and Plaid Cymru four.

However, the Scottish results have seen some odd predictions – and even Conservative sources have dismissed their projected gains as “bollocks”.

Professor John Curtice has issued a "health warning" about the predicted SNP results.

Here is, according to the exit poll, the most likely winner of every seat in Scotland. Bear in mind that due to some being ranked as “too close to call”, the number totals are different to the exit poll’s:  

  • Aberdeen North – too close to call: 61% SNP, 39% Labour
  • Aberdeen South – too close to call: 44% Con, 39% Labour
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – likely Con hold: 99% Con, 1% SNP
  • Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine – likely Con hold: 98% Con, 1% Lab, 1% SNP
  • Airdrie and Shotts – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Alloa and Grangemouth – likely SNP hold: 99%+ SNP hold
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens – too close to call: 57% Con, 42% SNP
  • Arbroath and Broughty Ferry – likely SNP hold: 99%+ SNP
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber – too close to call: 46% Con, 22% SNP
  • Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock – too close to call: 78% Lab, 16% Con
  • Bathgate & Linlithgow – too close to call: 59% Lab, 41% SNP
  • Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk – likely Con hold: 99%+ Con
  • Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross – likely LibDem gain: 99%+ LibDem
  • Central Ayrshire – possible Lab gain: 86% Lab, 11% SNP, 3% Con
  • Coatbridge & Belshill – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch – too close to call: 72% Lab, 28% SNP
  • Dumfries & Galloway – too close to call: 76% Con, 25% Lab
  • Dunbartonshire West – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Dundee Central – possible SNP hold: 87% SNP, 13% Lab
  • Dunfermline & Dollar – possible Lab gain: 93% Lab, 7% SNP
  • East Kilbride and Strathaven – too close to call: 57% Lab, 43% SNP
  • East Renfrewshire – possible Lab gain: 85% Lab, 14% Con
  • Edinburgh East & Musselburgh – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Edinburgh North and Leith – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Edinburgh South – likely Lab hold: 99%+ Lab
  • Edinburgh South West – likely Lab gain: 96% Lab, 4% SNP
  • Edinburgh West – likely LibDem hold: 99%+ LibDem
  • Falkirk – likely SNP hold: 99%+ SNP
  • Glasgow East – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Glasgow North – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Glasgow North East – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Glasgow South – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Glasgow South West – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab 
  • Glasgow West – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Glenrothes & Mid Fife – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Gordon & Buchan – too close to call: 58% Con, 42% SNP
  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Inverclyde & Renfrewshire – likely Lab gain: 99%, 1% SNP
  • Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire – too close to call: 74% SNP, 15% LibDem gain
  • Kilmarnock & Loudon – too close to call: 77% SNP, 23% Lab
  • Livingston – too close to call: 56% lab, 44% SNP
  • Lothian East – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Mid Dunbartonshire – likely LibDem gain: 99%+ LibDem
  • Midlothian – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey – likely Con gain: 95% Con, 5% SNP, 1% Lab
  • Motherwell, Wishaw & Carluke – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • Na h-Eileanan an lar – likely Lab gain: 99%+ Lab
  • North Ayrshire & Arran – too close to call: 65% Lab, 34% SNP
  • North East Fife – likely LibDem hold: 99%+ LibDem
  • Orkney & Shetland – likely LibDem hold: 99%+ LibDem
  • Paisley & Renfrewshire North – too close to call: 68% Lab, 32% SNP
  • Paisley & Renfrewshire South – too close to call: 80% Lab, 20% SNP
  • Perth & Kinross-shire – likely Con gain: 99% Con, 1% SNP
  • Rutherglen – likely Lab hold: 99%+
  • Stirling & Strathallan – too close to call: 44% Con, 37% SNP
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