Jeremy Hunt faces a tough fight to avoid a ‘Portillo moment’ in the 2024 general election.
The chancellor is battling to hold on to his South West Surrey seat, which has a majority of 8,817, amid heavy Liberal Democrat pressure and unfavourable boundary changes.
But Mr Hunt has pledged to fight for the “blue wall brick by brick” and dismissed suggestions of a shock like fellow top Tory Michael Portillo losing his seat in 1997.
“Jeremy Hunt is no Michael Portillo, for better or worse,” he said.
The Conservative Party is 20 points behind Labour in national polls which could leave the Tories vulnerable to losing some of its frontbenchers in safer seats in the July 4 election.
Sir Keir Starmer hopes to win a majority similar to the Labour landslide in 1997. However, he will need one or two Portillo moments on election night to achieve that.
Who is Michael Portillo?
Mr Portillo was elected MP for Enfield Southgate in 1984 and became a key player under Tory former prime ministers Baroness Margaret Thatcher and Sir John Major.
In 1997, he had a comfortable majority for his constituency and was defence secretary — tipped even to replace Sir John as party leader.
However, on May 1 it all fell apart amid a tide of Labour insurgency. He returned as an MP in 1999, successfully standing in Chelsea, and was shadow chancellor under William Hague.
Since leaving Parliament in 2005, Mr Portillo has become better known as a broadcaster. He has presented political programmes for GB News and rail documentaries for the BBC.
What was the ‘Portillo moment’?
While Labour had led the polls before the 1997 election, Mr Portillo had a comfortable majority of 15,563.
By contrast, his rival for the Enfield Southgate was 30-year-old Stephen Twigg, who was not well known. But the young contender pulled off a shock, winning 20,570 votes against Portillo's 19,137.
The Enfield Southgate result was called around 3am on election night and, with results already going Labour’s way, this was considered a rubber-stamping of their win.
Mr Portillo was among the highest-profile Tories to lose their seats on the historic night. The lateness of the call prompted the question "Were you still up for Portillo?"
Since then, a ‘Portillo moment’ has become a metaphor for a leading MP losing their seat amid a bad election night for their party.
What other ‘Portillo moments’ have there been?
David Cameron had targeted Labour big beast Ed Balls in 2010 — but the Conservatives failed to take the seat of Morley in West Yorkshire. But, as shadow chancellor in 2015, Mr Balls came unstuck and suffered a Portillo moment on a bad night for Labour.
Nick Clegg had clung on to Sheffield Hallam in 2015 — but the former Lib Dem leader lost the university campus seat to Labour’s Jared O’Mara two years later. Labour’s Olivia Burke now holds the seat.
Another Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, suffered disappointment in 2019 — losing her East Dunbartonshire seat to the Scottish National Party (SNP) in a knife-edge battle.
Who could be at risk of a ‘Portillo moment’ in 2024?
Justice Secretary Alex Chalk is defending a tiny majority of 981 in Cheltenham, making it a key target for the Lib Dems.
Defence Minister Grant Shapps has a 10,995 majority in Welwyn Garden City, but the size of the swing away from the Tories means he is also vulnerable.
Labour came second in the seat at the 2019 general election, winning 31.6 per cent of the vote.
The former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith is defending a majority of just 1,262 in Chingford and Woodford Green.Sir Iain has held the seat since 1992 but faces a tough fight to hold on to it this year amid stern Labour competition.
Dr Faiza Shaheen, an academic and economist in economic inequality, will stand for the party this year.
Penny Mordaunt is tipped as a future Tory leader but must first hang on to her 15,780 majority in Portsmouth North.
Labour, which came second in 2019, has chosen the former teacher Amanda Martin as its candidate.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has one of the safest seats in the country with Richmond (Yorkshire) held by the Conservatives since 1906. He has a 27,210 majority.
However, one survey recently suggested Mr Sunak risked being booted out.
