That’s all from the politics live blog for today. We’re back on Thursday as the polls open for the 2017 general election - do join us then.
Presenter, critic and historian Simon Schama was watching Newsnight:
portrait of May in @BBCNewsnight Matthew Parris film is of a person completely empty of vision, ideas, thought, just doing what comes next
— Simon Schama (@simon_schama) June 7, 2017
This is the Sun’s attempt to sway voters as they go to the polls tomorrow:
THE SUN: Don't chuck Britain in the Cor-Bin #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/mOQLmX9IsK
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 7, 2017
The Mail, meanwhile, opts for a Brexit bent:
DAILY MAIL: Let's reignite British Spirit #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/YsepouWdJN
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 7, 2017
The Mirror also features Theresa May, though in a slightly less positive light:
MIRROR CORRECTED: Lies,damned lies and Theresa May #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/l3XV0lu0bP
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 7, 2017
And just for good measure, here’s another poll. It’s from YouGov, which shows a bigger lead for the Tories than one from the same polling firm last week. It put Labour on 39% and the Conservatives on 42%.
Exclusive: Times/YouGov final poll for 2017 election - Tory lead of 7 points pic.twitter.com/U23d4uXurQ
— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) June 7, 2017
Jeremy Corbyn recalled how the campaign began on Tuesday 17 April with a visit to meet carers in Birmingham just hours after Theresa May called the snap poll. The Birmingham event had been in the diary and his staff expected him to cancel, with the justifiable excuse of the election announcement. But Corbyn being Corbyn, he fulfilled his promise and that became the first of more than 100 campaign events.
He had travelled 7,000 miles, from the snows of Aviemore to the sunshine of the south of England, addressing in total 90 rallies.
His speech was repeatedly met with claps and standing ovations. The loudest came when he said, as if replaying a scene from Love Actually, he would stand up to Donald Trump.
It was a wide-ranging speech, from opposition to austerity to human rights and comments that you should not be afraid to admit to a love of poetry.
The campaign was twice suspended because of the two terrorist attacks. People should respond by turning out to exercise their right to vote, Corbyn said: “People fought and died for our right to vote. In the course of this campaign people have lost their lives in Manchester and here in London - citizens of a free and democratic country.
“We can honour the victims of these atrocities tomorrow by voting, by showing democracy that will never be cowed by terror. And that hope can triumph over fear.”
Corbyn's final rally
Jeremy Corbyn ended his election campaign with a raucous, foot-stomping, joy-filled rally at a Gothic-style church in Islington, north London, and expressions of hope.
The Labour leader delivered the final speech of the seven-week campaign under stained glass windows and next to a red neon Bar sign at Union Chapel, a combined working church, entertainment venue with a drinks licence and a charity drop-in centre.
Shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, the warm-up act, spoke about the star of the campaign ... the manifesto. She then went on to introduce Corbyn, optimistically describing him as “the next prime minister”.
As he replaced her at the lectern, Corbyn was prevented from speaking for several minutes because of the applause and cheers. Beaming, he eventually threw out his arms, thumbs up.
The mood in the capacity-filled church chimed with Corbyn’s campaign: positive, goodnatured and, as the Labour leader repeatedly told the audience, hopeful. The campaign, echoing Barack Obama’s slogan, had succeeded in bringing hope: “Hope that it does not have to be like this. That inequities can be tackled. That austerity can be ended. That you can stand up to the elites and the cynics.”
The hundreds in the pews shared the sense of hope, with expectations high that on Friday morning there would be would at the very least a hung parliament, though polls suggest otherwise.
Win or lose, Corbyn claimed the campaign had been a success, having changed the face of British politics. He and Labour and its members and supporters had shifted politics to the left: there is a new version of what constitutes the centre, a new version of what
constitutes the mainstream, he said.
Updated
If you find the polling all a bit confusing, this might give you some clarity.
The Press Association’s poll of polls, which takes in 10 results from the past week, puts the Conservatives on 44%, seven points clear of Labour on 37%, with the Liberal Democrats on 8%, Ukip on 4% and the Greens on 2%.
Guardian home affairs editor Alan Travis tweets:
Surveymonkey/ Sun just a four point lead for the Conservatives: CON 42%(-2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Implied Tory maj.20
— Alan Travis (@alantravis40) June 7, 2017
Meanwhile, Financial Times chief political correspondent Jim Pickard tweets:
Final Panelbase GB-wide election poll, sample size 3,018.
— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) June 7, 2017
CON 44 (NC)
LAB 36 (NC)
LD 7 (NC)
UKIP 5 (NC)
GRN 2 (-1)
Press Association political correspondent Arj Singh is among the press pack covering Jeremy Corbyn’s final rally of the campaign before the polls open tomorrow morning.
The stage is set for Jeremy Corbyn's final rally of the election. The homecoming gig in Islington will be his 90th of the campaign (!) pic.twitter.com/mbRJQsJk3V
— Arj Singh (@singharj) June 7, 2017
North of England correspondent Josh Halliday tweets:
Final dispatch from Hartlepool, by me and @garycaltonphoto. Includes a (perhaps ill-advised) vote prediction 😬😬😬 https://t.co/K7SCF0Duvd
— Josh Halliday (@JoshHalliday) June 7, 2017
The Labour leader has moved on to home turf with an appearance at the Union Chapel in Highbury Corner in north London, as Evening Standard political reporter Kate Proctor tweets:
It's peak Corbyn tonight in my hood as he does his final rally of the campaign. #islington #GE2017 plenty with Corbyn t-shirts & banners pic.twitter.com/RXjWc1l4nY
— Kate Proctor (@KateProctorES) June 7, 2017
Jeremy Corbyn has addressed hundreds of supporters at what he said was his 89th rally of the election campaign.
The Labour leader said the government always looked for someone else to blame for issues with the emergency services, homelessness and the NHS.
“At the start of this election campaign seven weeks ago, lots and lots of very erudite, very expert, incredibly well informed political commentators decided the result of the election,” he said.
“They decided the people had already decided and it really wasn’t very necessary to have an election at all. Well I have to say, they may just have made a very big mistake.
“Our campaign has grown day by day, membership of our party has grown day by day, activity has grown day by day, and support has grown day by day, because we’re offering something different.”
Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour critics are already discussing how to respond if the party sustains heavy losses on election night – with most counselling against an early leadership challenge after his better-than-expected performance on the campaign trail.
Despite the narrowing in the Tories’ poll lead and Theresa May’s lacklustre campaign, most Labour insiders believe they are unlikely to advance on Ed Miliband’s 2015 tally of 232 seats.
Many Labour candidates, particularly in northern seats away from the major cities, say Corbyn’s leadership is still problematic among some groups of voters, and the most pessimistic believe May could still secure a much-increased majority of 80 to 100.
Few in the party expect Corbyn to follow Neil Kinnock’s example in 1992 and resign straight after the result in the early hours of Friday morning.
In an interview with the Guardian, shadow chancellor John McDonnell refused to acknowledge the possibility of defeat. Asked about whether he worried MPs could be plotting on the backbenches, he said: “No, we are going to win this.”
He said that the “foundations are crumbling” for the Tories, with Labour receiving feedback on the doorstep of people struggling with living standards. Promising to hold a budget by mid-July if Labour wins in which he would lift the public sector pay cap, McDonnell said: “It’s been terrific, the best campaign I’ve ever been involved in, the atmosphere has been great and I’ve really enjoyed it.”
Comres has conducted a final poll for the Independent, which gives the Tories a 10-point lead over Labour.
The poll had the Conservatives down three points on 44%, Labour down one point on 34%, the Lib Dems up one on 9%, Ukip up one on 5%, the SNP on 4% and the Greens on 2%.
Half of those who voted for Ukip two years ago say they will now vote Tory, potentially adding two million votes, or about six percentage points to the Tory vote share.
The Liberal Democrats are losing voters to both major parties, with two fifths of their 2015 voters saying they will now either vote Labour (22%) or Conservative (19%).
ComRes interviewed 2,051 adults online between 5 and 7 June, with data weighted to be demographically representative of all British adults and by past vote recall.
Updated
The Scottish National party is braced for the loss of up to a dozen Westminster seats in the general election, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats threatening to inflict defeats in its rural heartlands.
Senior figures in Nicola Sturgeon’s party predict the Moray seat held by its Westminster leader Angus Robertson, and the neighbouring seat of Banff and Buchan, could fall to the Conservatives if enough voters endorse Brexit and switch sides to block a second independence referendum.
The latest opinion polls show the SNP vote has fallen to 41% – from a high of 54% before the 2015 general election – while Scottish Labour’s vote has increased sharply from a low of 13% to 25%, echoing a growth in Labour support in England and Wales.
Security around polling stations is constantly being reviewed and updated in the wake of the terrorist attacks that have hit Britain, a senior police officer has said.
Deputy assistant commissioner Lucy D’Orsi acknowledged that tomorrow’s general election will take place during “unprecedented times” in the wake of attacks in Westminster, Manchester and London Bridge.
D’Orsi, the National Police Chiefs Council lead for protective security, said: “Plans are in place to make sure that resources are appropriately allocated. The general threat level remains at severe, so we continue to ask the public to be alert and to report any concerns to police. We appreciate that these are unprecedented times and together with our partners we continue to keep communities safe.”
The current “severe” threat level is the second highest, indicating that an attack is seen as “highly likely”.
Updated
Jon Snow has interviewed Theresa May on Channel 4 News. The prime minister opens by saying voters have a very clear choice about who they want to lead the Brexit negotiations: “It’s either going to be me, or Jeremy Corbyn.”
May rejects the assertion that she has revealed little about her Brexit negotiation strategy. Her 12 objectives for the talks include a “deep and special” relationship with the EU, she tells Snow.
Voters want someone “willing to be difficult and to stand up for Britain”, May says.
Turning to the issue of terror in the wake of Saturday night’s attacks, the prime minister says she will boost security for Britain by making it easier to deport foreign terror suspects and to restrict the movement of terror suspects.
Snow may have secured his interview with May, but he told viewers he was less successful in obtaining an end-of-campaign chat with the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn.
Updated
Sky News political correspondent Beth Rigby is at the final Tory election rally in Birmingham.
Finally rally in #Birmingham. The cabinet here #GE2017 pic.twitter.com/qf0lpP3Pkf
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) June 7, 2017
Nicola Sturgeon says Theresa May must now regret her “arrogant” decision to call a snap election.
Addressing a rally in Edinburgh the day before voters go to the polls, the SNP leader appealed to Labour and Liberal Democrat voters to band together against the Conservatives by turning to the SNP.
“A vote tomorrow for Labour or the Liberal Democrats, parties who are third and fourth position in Scotland, risks doing one thing and one thing only - splitting the anti-Tory vote and allowing a Tory MP in the back door. Let us not take that risk tomorrow,” Sturgeon said.
“Scotland has the opportunity tomorrow to hold the Tories firmly in check. It is no longer inevitable that Theresa May emerges from this election with a bigger majority or with any majority at all. Scotland’s voice could be decisive.”
Updated
This morning on Today, John Humphrys was complaining that Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn had refused to give the programme an end-of-campaign interview. (See 8.29am.) On Twitter last night the veteran Channel 4 News anchor Jon Snow said he was having the same problem.
In 7 General Elections as anchor @Channel4News, after weeks of requests,Theresa May is the first serving PM to refuse me an interview why?
— Jon Snow (@jonsnowC4) June 6, 2017
But, after chasing around the country, and highlighting his quest on Twitter, he has been granted an interview. It will be on at 7pm.
Polls open in 13 hours... good evening Prime Minister #ChasingTheLeaders pic.twitter.com/iMgvrpt188
— Jon Snow (@jonsnowC4) June 7, 2017
Snow’s colleague, Krishnan Guru-Murthy, was less fortunate. He failed to get an interview with Jeremy Corbyn.
But bad news from Labour. I even offered a last minute live from his rally in Harrow - but after weeks of calls it's a NO from Mr Corbyn https://t.co/PdE8vZX0ga
— Krishnan Guru-Murthy (@krishgm) June 7, 2017
That’s all from me for tonight.
My colleague Chris Johnston is taking over now.
Updated
My colleague Alan Travis has more on the latest Guardian/ICM polling figures.
The detail of the Guardian/ICM poll confirms Corbyn’s popularity among younger voters with a lead of 66-23 amongst 18-24 year olds and 47-33 amongst 25-33 year old, but declared intended turnout of both these groups at 64% and 70% are 10 points below other age groups.
Perhaps more importantly the Conservatives seem to have won the battle of the working class with an even larger 23-point lead for May amongst the key skilled working class C2 voters often found in many marginal swing seats across the Midlands. Labour, however, seemed to have halted the Tory advance among unskilled DE voters where they have regained a modest two-point 38-36 lead.
More disappointing for Labour is that the Tories enjoy a slim one-point lead of 45% to 44% in the marginal seats it is defending.
Rob Ford and Will Jennings of the Polling Observatory say the upturn in Labour support during the campaign has been on a similar scale to the Lib Dem “Cleggmania” surge in 2010. Clegg’s rise in popularity was concentrated in just six days after his appearance in the televised leaders’ debate and had largely dissipated by the time people got to the polling station. In contrast, the Labour rise this time has been steady over a six week period, although there are concerns it has just largely piled up votes seats the party already holds.
But under the bonnet the nature of the “Corbyn surge” has been clearly defined in the series of ICM and other polls. The only groups among whom Labour has built strong leads are younger voters aged 18 -35, students and black and other minority ethnic voters.
All these are groups in society who have repeatedly proven to have lower turnout rates than all other types of voters. In 2015 only 43% of 18-24s voted and 53% of 25 -34s, compared with 77% of 55-64 and 78% of over 65s.
It is possible that more younger people will vote on Thursday - 300,000 more are said to have registered since the snap election was called. But they are still unlikely to reach the turnout levels of the rest of the electorate.
The key to Conservative support and the size of its majority lies in its successful targeted campaign to win support of working class voters. From early in the campaign May had established a Tory lead amongst skilled working class voters - the C2s in the jargon - not seen since the 1980s. They even established a lead for part of the campaign amongst unskilled - social class DE - voters although Labour appeared to be closing the gap in the last week of the campaign.
Among more affluent voters and amongst the over-65s the unwavering scale of the Conservative lead has more than matched Corbyn’s popularity amongst the young. Except these groups have consistently provided the highest turnout levels at all recent elections.
Updated
In an interview broadcast yesterday Theresa May revealed that her naughtiest moment involved something that happened in a field of wheat. But, no, it wasn’t that.
Alex Salmond, the former Scottish first minister, has joined the many people taking the mickey ...
Tempted to be naughty. #fieldsofwheat pic.twitter.com/C6DRmikEWd
— Alex Salmond (@AlexSalmond) June 7, 2017
Guardian/ICM's final poll preliminary results suggest Tories have 12-point lead over Labour
ICM has now produced its preliminary call on its final poll. And here are the figures.
Conservatives: 46% (up 1 from Guardian/ICM on Monday)
Labour: 34% (no change)
Lib Dems: 7% (down 1)
Ukip: 5% (no change)
Greens: 2% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 12 points (up 1)
It is the preliminary call because these figures are based on 1,500 results. The final figures will be based on 2,000 results, but the final 500 responses are unlikely to make much, if any, difference to the headline figures.
This is what ICM’s director, Martin Boon, is saying about the figures.
So, there we have it. A 12-point victory for the Conservatives is ICM’s preliminary call on our final poll, up from a 7-point victory for David Cameron just two years’ ago, representing a swing to the Conservatives of 2.5% (remembering that both party shares have increased compared to 2015).
This final poll confirms the pattern that ICM has produced over the last fortnight: a fairly healthy and static (aka strong & stable) Conservative share with consolidation of the Labour bump first witnessed after the manifesto publication.
The 12-point lead compares to the 11-point lead published in The Guardian on Monday, implying precious little movement in the last few days of the campaign.
We should note that ICM continues to interview, aiming for another c.500 interviews by the end of the day. The numbers might change, but we would not expect them to do so by much.
According to Electoral Calculus seat projections. This would yield a Conservative majority of 96, with 373 seats in their possession compared to 199 for Labour (which might be seen by party insiders as a decent outcome). Not so much for the Liberal Democrats though, predicted to drop to only two seats on this modelling.
Speculation about the polls being right or wrong is ubiquitous right now, with much of it concentrating on closer runs polls produced by Survation and YouGov compared to us and ComRes. Intriguingly, a number high profile political journalists continue to predict that the Tories will do better than even our poll is saying (given musings from the ground), so this really has become a nail-gnawing electoral event, rather than the absolute rout that we all were fixed on just a month ago.
The public, though, may not have been reading the journo’s stuff. Only one in ten (12%) expects a Tory majority at the top end of the range, with a plurality (38%) believing it will be secured, but only by double figures. Fewer than one in five (17%) expect a hung parliament, with the great optimists being the 7% who think Labour will secure the keys to Number 10 (18% of Labour voters they Jeremy Corbyn will smash it).
But whatever the outcome, there’s a strong chance that Corbyn will stay on, according to the public. As many (24%) think he should do so no matter what (a few delighted Tories are included in this number), with the same number saying so only on the basis of a Labour victory. One in five (20%) thinks he should do so so long as Labour do better than their 2015 showing – that’s not a very high bar though given the return to two-party politics. Beating Ed Miliband’s 31% in 2015 should not present a great difficuly now, given the implosion of Ukip and the Liberal Democrats general malaise.
So the UK goes to the polls, with voters apparently armed with sufficient information to make an informed choice – 57% say they have been on enough of a receiving end to cast their ballot effectively, with Tory voters more so (72%) than their Labour counterparts (62%). Cynics amongst us may conclude that Theresa May’s policy-light manifesto didn’t take long to consume.
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 1,532 GB adults aged 18+ on 6 to 7 June 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been wighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Updated
Here is today’s Guardian’s daily politics podcast, featuring Jonathan Freedland, Owen Polly Billington and Matthew D’Ancona.
More than 8,000 people have responded to an appeal from Momentum, the Labour organisation that supports Jeremy Corbyn and the left, to take a day off tomorrow to maximise turnout.
The organisation estimates that the 8,000 volunteers are capable of knocking on well over a million doors. The intention is to try to address the recurring problem of getting apathetic or wavering voters but especially the young to the polling booth, the latter regarded as the make-or-break issue of the election.
The aim is to keep returning to doors until they receive confirmation that a person has voted. The volunteers are being directed towards marginal seats.
One of the volunteers, John McMahon, who works for a National Health Organisation, said his boss was understanding when he asked for the day off, aware of how animated McMahon is about politics.
“I don’t think I would be much use if I was at work on Thursday anyway,” he said, saying his mind would have been on the election.
McMahon (36), originally from Greater Manchester and now living in Croydon North constituency, a safe Labour seat, has been canvassing for Labour’s Sarah Jones in nearby Croydon Central, which the Conservatives won in 2015 with a majority just 167.
He said he is confident that about 200 door knocks in a day is feasible. He will be checking if people have voted or need a little more persuasion if their vote is soft but also practical issues, such as whether they need help in getting to the polling station or even something as basic as whether they are aware of the location of the polling station.
“I think we will take Croydon Central. The feeling is positive. The atmosphere in London seems solid for Labour,” he said.
When Momentum launched its online appeal for volunteers, it hoped for about 5,000, which the organiser calculated would mean roughly 200 door knocks each but with 8,000 that reduces to 125.
Momentum, which has about 20,000 members and a database of supporters around 100,000, said that about 70 percent of the volunteers are members of Momentum and the rest not connected to it.
Momentum said it replied to each volunteers to discuss whether they could work in a marginal. Each will be working from a list drawn up by canvassers. Some volunteers contacted by the Guardian said they had made a deliberate decision to take a day’s holiday off in response to the Momentum appeal, while others said they were students or had planned to help out anyway.
The Momentum initiative is just one part of a Labour effort to balance higher Conservative election spending by the Conservatives by outnumbering them in terms of volunteers.
Adam Klug, Momentum’s national organiser, said:
As part of Labour’s election day efforts, Momentum will mobilise thousands of activists who will knock on more than one million doors.We’ve been overwhelmed by the commitment and passion of those who’ve pledged to take time off on June 8th. Thousands of activists are going as far as sacrificing a days pay.
Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, has issued a final election message in the form of a Facebook post. It includes this particularly caustic attack on Theresa May.
Just a few months ago, if you’d asked me what I thought of Theresa May, I would have said that – while I disagreed with her politics – I admired her character. I considered her stolid, strong and principled, with a basic sense of decency not always found in front-line politics.
Well what a difference seven weeks make. Since calling the election, she has been well and truly shown up as tetchy and thin-skinned about criticism, weak and unstable under pressure, cowardly when faced with a challenge, and deceitful when it suits her political ends.
But more than anything, I believe she has been exposed as a hypocrite.
She is happy to trade on her faith one minute, then tell blatant lies about Jeremy Corbyn the next. She viciously attacks Diane Abbott over getting her numbers wrong in an interview, then brazenly and repeatedly refuses to offer any costings of her own.
And worst, most sickening of all, she stands outside 10 Downing Street and tells the British public that ‘enough is enough’ on terrorism, then goes back inside to call her Jihadist-funding friends in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and see what business deals she can strike with them next.
Theresa May has travelled hundreds of miles today, including two flights, for little more than three photo ops and an activist rally (plus the chance to get her message in some local papers).
The latest was an odd stop in Nottingham South, Labour majority of 7,000, where she went into a Dunelm store and spoke to four or five staff members for about five minutes before disappearing.
Philip May, her husband, was at her side helping to make small talk about their jobs and the company. If she met any shoppers, it wasn’t in front of the press pack. Now it’s back on the Maymobile coach to the West Midlands for a rally.
There have been wild fluctuations in the general election polls for Wales. But the final one shows Labour on course to maintain its long-standing dominance.
It also shows an extraordinary number of young people intending to vote Labour – 73% say they will vote for the party compared with only 14% for the Conservatives, according to the poll.
Significantly, it also suggests the Tories may achieve their highest share of the vote for more than a century. Which is bad news for Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems.
There was alarm in the Labour ranks when the first poll of the election suggested the Tories could win a majority of seats in Wales for the first time since the 1850s – before the era of mass democracy.
But the party has fought back strongly.
Here’s the poll figures:
Labour: 46%
Conservatives: 34%
Plaid Cymru: 9%
Liberal Democrats: 5%
Ukip: 5%
Others: 1%
The Labour share is its best since Tony Blair’s 2001 general election victory; the Lib Dem share suggests this could the worst general election they or their predecessor parties have ever experienced in Wales.
Projected seat changes from the 2015 result (shown in brackets):
Labour: 27 seats (+2)
Conservatives: 9 seats (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)
Roger Scully, professor of political science at the Wales Governance Centre, said:
This has been an extraordinary campaign, for an unanticipated election. Not least of the extraordinary features has been the substantial turbulence in the opinion polls.
Our final Welsh poll, however, suggests that we may be on course for ‘business as usual’, at least in terms of who wins the seats. Labour have come first in both votes and seats at every general election in Wales from 1922 onwards. The last person to defeat Labour in a general election here was Lloyd George – and he had just won a world war.
If our final poll of the campaign is broadly correct, tomorrow the Welsh Labour party will score its twenty-sixth general election victory in a row. That may not be enough to put Jeremy Corbyn into 10 Downing Street, but after a campaign that started with Labour looking under greater electoral pressure than for a century in Wales, it would still be a remarkable achievement.
The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, had a sample of 1074 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from 5-7 June 2017.
15 Election result predictions
As this interview with Prof John Curtice, the BBC’s elections expert and the mastermind behind the exit poll, reveals, by this time tomorrow afternoon - well before the polls have closed - Curtice will probably know the election result.
Unfortunately he won’t be telling me.
But, as the next best thing, here is a round-up of 15 of the most compelling election forecasts around. They range from a hung parliament to a Conservative majority of 122. At the start of the campaign, before the Tory social care U-turn and the Jeremy Corbyn surge, the figure at the top would have been even higher.
On the assumption that reporters are generally best sticking to reporting, and that when they get into the prediction business, they often get it wrong, I won’t be offering my own. So you will just have to stick with these. But reader predictions are, of course, more than welcome BTL.
Hung parliament - the YouGov model
This is the most recent forecast (from yesterday) from the YouGov model, a forecasting model devised using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). This involves taking polling data and, using data about the demographic composition of constituencies, and how different demographics vote, developing a seat-by-seat forecast. The Conservatives (304) would have the most seats, but even with Northern Ireland unionists (around 10) they could be outvoted by a coalition of Labour (266), the SNP (46), the Lib Dems (12) and the Greens (1).
Conservative majority of 22 - electionpolling.co.uk forecast
This is the most recent forecast on electionpolling.co.uk, based on what would happen on the basis of the swing implied by the most recent polls.
Conservative majority of 28 - New Statesman
This is the majority implied by the seat forecasts in the New Statesman’s model, which takes the latest polling figures and produces a forecast using the RegVar forecasting model.
Conservative majority of around 40 - Peter Kellner’s prediction
This is the prediction that Peter Kellner, the leading pollster and former YouGov president, set out in an Evening Standard column yesterday.
Conservative majority of 48 - Local election projection
This is the forecast that Sky New elections expert Prof Michael Thrasher produced straight after the local elections, judging what would happen in a general election based on voting in the locals. It does not take into account developments since the campaign started.
Conservative majority of 52 - Projection based on Opinium’s final poll
Opinium’s final poll suggests the Tories are on 43%, Labour 36%, the Lib Dems 8% and Ukip 5%, and Electoral Calculus says this would give the Tories a majority of 52.
Conservative majority of 58 - Projection based on “poll of polls” in Guardian poll tracker
The Guardian’s poll tracker currently has the Tories on 44%, Labour on 36%, the Lib Dems on 8%, Ukip on 4% and the Greens on 2%, and Electoral Calculus says this would give the Tories a majority of 58.
Conservative majority of 64 - the Ashcroft Model
This is the central forecast of the Ashcroft Model, a forecasting model devised by Lord Ashcroft also using MRP. But his forecast is different from YouGov’s.
The Conservatives remain on course to win a majority in the general election, according to new figures from the Ashcroft Model. Our “combined probabilistic model”, which calculates the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, estimates 357 Tory seats, or a potential majority of 64 (up four from the previous update published last Friday). However, this central estimate, based on an update survey conducted over the weekend, combines the data from three different turnout scenarios: including all those who currently say they will vote on Thursday (giving a Conservative majority of 70); including all those who say they voted in the EU referendum (a Conservative majority of 48); and assuming turnout matches that of the 2015 election (a Conservative majority of 78).
Conservative majority of 71 - Elections Etc combined forecast
Elections Etc is an elections website run by Stephen Fisher, an Oxford academic who is part of the team working on the BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll. The combined forecast is a forecast that produces an average of all forecasts available based on a system: using polling, and forecasting models; betting trends; and wisdom-of-the-crowd exercises. Here are their most recent figures, from five days ago.
Conservative majority of 72 - Electoral Calculus forecast
This is the current forecast on the Electoral Calculus website, which is calculated using an average of recent polls.
Conservative majority of 75 to 99 - Betfair’s central forecast
According to figures from the bookmakers Betfair today, the Tories winning a majority of 75 to 99 is their most popular option with punters. Their odds on this are 5/1.
Conservative majority of 84 - Projection based on latest Guardian/ICM poll
The latest Guardian/ICM poll has the Tories on 45%, Labour 34%, the Lib Dems 8%, Ukip 5% and the Greens 3%, which Electoral Calculus says would give the Tories a majority of 84. A final Guardian/ICM poll is due out tomorrow.
Conservative majority of 100 - the electionforecast.co.uk model
This is a model run by Chris Hanretty at the University of East Anglia, using polling data but adjusting for trends in voting behaviour. Its most recent forecast has the Tories getting 375 seats.
Conservative majority of 105 - Nigel Marriott’s prediction
This is the prediction from the statistician Nigel Marriott, who explains his methodology here.
Conservative majority of 122 - Iain Dale’s prediction
This is the prediction from Iain Dale, the broadcaster, publisher and onetime chief of staff to David Davis. On his blog he has made predictions for every seat in the country.
Updated
Sturgeon defends saying Dugdale told her privately Brexit could justify second independence referendum
Nicola Sturgeon has defended her explosive claim that Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale told her privately she felt Brexit could justify a second independence vote, by claiming Dugdale herself had put that conversation in the public domain.
Sturgeon electrified the Scottish general election campaign on Tuesday by alleging on STV’s Scotland Decides leaders debate that immediately after last year’s EU vote, Dugdale told her Labour should drop its opposition to a second independence referendum because Scotland had voted heavily to remain.
Dugdale accused Sturgeon of telling a “categoric lie” after the leak, but she was lampooned widely by Scottish National party and Tory activists. Jeremy Corbyn, the UK Labour leader, has undermined Dugdale’s firm anti-independence policy by saying he could see a case for staging one, adding to the furore.
At first minister’s questions Sturgeon was challenged by Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, to explain whether she believed “private conversations shouldn’t stay private?”
Sturgeon said she did but added:
The fact of this conversation and a very selective account of the content of that, was first put into the public domain on the 23 February in the Times newspaper, where it said Ms Dugdale revealed that she held secret talks with the first minister.
That is what gave me the ability to talk about that. The part of course of that conversation Kezia Dugdale didn’t refer to I stand by 100%.
Dugdale told the Times: “We talked at length about how horrified we were at the result of the referendum. And I pledged at that point to do everything I could, with the powers I had, to support Scotland having as strong a relationship with the rest of Europe as possible.”
On the subject of this Dugdale-Sturgeon phone call, Kez mentioned it in this interview I did with her in Feb. https://t.co/3WrE5kVs7Q pic.twitter.com/hOY69n4hac
— Kenny Farquharson (@KennyFarq) June 7, 2017
However, Dugdale did not disclose anything to the Times which Sturgeon had said to her. She stuck to her opinions. The Labour leader told Sturgeon at Holyrood:
If the last 24 hours show us anything, is that this first minister will say anything to deflect from the SNP’s appalling record.
Davidson said no one could ever trust Sturgeon again, telling MSPs:
Everyone now knows, don’t have a private conversation with this first minister because if it suits her purposes, everybody will get to hear about it.
Sturgeon’s opponents believe the leaked was to humiliate Dugdale after a series of angry clashes between the two, but also to damage Labour’s chances of beating the SNP in several seats which the Tories are also fighting, including East Renfrewshire and East Lothian. Both seats have significant unionist votes, and the claims against Dugdale could now shift voters to the Tories, deeply splitting the anti-SNP vote.
Dugdale’s father Jeff, a well known nationalist activist with a large Twitter following tweeted:
I'm #SNPBecause but I'm still bloody proud of Kezia!
— Jeff Dugdale (@Jefforbited) June 7, 2017
McDonnell says IFS 'aren't infallible' as he rejects their criticism of Labour's tax plans
And on the World at One John McDonnell also used his interview to reject criticism of Labour’s plans from the Institute of Fiscal Studies. On the Today programme this morning Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said that Labour would not be able to raise the money it was predicting from tax. He said:
The Labour party’s proposing some really quite radical changes so they’re looking at spending an extra £75bn a year according to their manifesto, and just to be clear – that is an extremely big number indeed. That would be by far the biggest increase in spending that we’ve seen ... So £25bn of that they’re saying, ‘Look we’ll borrow for that because that’s for infrastructure spending’, but the other £50bn they’re saying we’re going to raise taxes for that, but they’re saying we’re going to raise taxes only from companies and the very rich.
There’s two or three things to say about that. One is if they were able to do that that would take tax in the UK to its highest ever level in peacetime, so this would be by UK standards quite extraordinary, though not so different from where we are in many other Western European countries. But actually they can’t raise the £50bn they say they would raise just from the increases that they say ... you can’t raise that amount of money just by taxing companies and a little bit off the rich.
McDonnell said that he respected the IFS, and that Johnson as a “good man”, but that on this he thought they were wrong.
The IFS aren’t infallible. They did get it wrong with the economic crisis. They did get it wrong with closing the deficit by 2015. And they got it wrong last year on business investment. I just say that, not to attack them, but they’re not infallible. And I think they’ve got it wrong this time as well.
McDonnell said the IFS were claiming Labour would not raise anything from an overseas property tax, even though that tax did raise revenue in Singapore and Canada. And he said their claims about Labour not raising as much money as it wanted from increasing corporation tax did not take into account the impact of its proposed tax avoidance and tax evasion measures.
McDonnell says Corbyn is strongest and most decent Labour leader 'maybe in generations'
John McDonnell was on the World at One a few minutes ago and he described Jeremy Corbyn as the strongest and most decent leader Labour has had, possibly for generations. He made the comment when asked about Lyn Brown, who is standing in for Diane Abbott as shadow home secretary, and how she could do the job when she resigned from the shadow cabinet last summer calling Jeremy Corbyn’s position “untenable”.
McDonnell said Brown made that comment in the heat of a row engulfing the parliamentary Labour party. He said that since then, and during the election campaign, many of Corbyn’s critics had changed their mind about him.
What’s been interesting is a number of people who were sceptical about Jeremy at that point in time have come out and said, ‘Look, we’ve seen him in the campaign, we’ve seen what he can do’ ... This is the most honest and decent and principled and strong leader that we’ve had, maybe in generations.
Commenting on Abbott, he said:
Diane is not well, and obviously that’s a personal matter for her. Lyn’s a wonderful person and she’ll do the job very, very well. And I wish Diane a speedy recovery.
Diane Abbott says she will 'rejoin the fray soon'
Diane Abbott has posted a message on Twitter thanking all those who have sent messages of support over her illness and said she will be back soon.
Touched by all the messages of support. Still standing! Will rejoin the fray soon. Vote Labour!
— Diane Abbott (@HackneyAbbott) June 7, 2017
Theresa May has run “the most disastrous campaign in living memory”, Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, said this morning. Speaking at the Ystradfechan Recreational Grounds in Treorchy, Wood said:
The way that this election had played out has been unprecedented.
Theresa May has carried out what maybe the most disastrous Conservative campaign in living memory, and while she still may win the election in England it is clear that there has been a hostile reaction to her policies.
First of all, she [May] said there was never going to be a snap election, she U-turned on that.
There have been a number of significant U-turns throughout the campaign.
I think she was complacent, thinking that she could hold this election purely on Brexit and nothing else and that by just trotting out the phrase ‘strong and stable leadership’ that would somehow get her over the winning line.
I think she has learnt throughout the course of the campaign that failing to face up to people, failing to turn up to the television debates, failing to hold her line and U-turning on so many different policy positions has put her in a precarious position.
Theresa May flew from Southampton to Norfolk on a private jet for a final push of campaigning in East Anglia. She looked relaxed but refused to be drawn on what she would count as a victory on June 9.
She told reporters: “I’m feeling good. I never predict election results as you know. We just get out there for the final hours of campaigning.”
May said she had “never set those sorts of targets” when asked what would count as success tomorrow.
I just get out there, go out and about, take my message and the message is the same since the beginning of the campaign that there’s a very clear choice for people when they come to vote.
Asked if she had any regrets, she replied:
No, I’ve enjoyed the campaign. Obviously the two terrible terror attacks have been something that nobody wants to see taking place at any time, including during an election campaign.
But outside of those I’ve enjoyed the campaign and I particularly enjoyed getting out and about meeting a whole range of different people across the country.
Q: What message would you give to Labour voters who don’t want to back Jeremy Corbyn but who aren’t yet persuaded to vote for you?
May says many of them will be the kind of people she met when she was a candidate in north west Durham in 1992 (a safe Labour seat). They will be “fiercely patriotic”. They will want the best for their kids, and good jobs. And she will provide quality technical education for children who want it for the first time.
Q: You abolished control orders, and now you want to effectively bring them back. Isn’t this just another U-turn?
No, says May. She says control orders had to go because they kept being defeated in the courts.
Q: You talked in your speech about reigniting the spirit of Britain. Was it membership of the EU that snuffed it out?
May says she was making the point that she wants to make the best of Brexit.
Q: You said you would not make up policy on the hoof. But isn’t that exactly what you have done?
May says she has been thinking about these policy issues for years. She managed to get Abu Qatada removed from the country.
Q: What have you learnt about yourself during this campaign?
May says she has learnt, again, that she likes to get out and about and meet people during campaigns.
Q: You are here with activists. But Jeremy Corbyn is doing events with the public. Doesn’t that worry you?
May says she has done meetings with people at workplaces.
Q: [From the Daily Mail’s Quentin Letts] Can you promise us no more elections or referendums for another five years?
May says the Conservatives are the only party opposed to further referendums.
And that’s it.
May's Q&A
Theresa May has just finished a stump speech in Norfolk, and she is now taking questions.
Q: You say you have a plan for Brexit. But voters are no closer to knowing what you might pay Brussels, or how you will pull us out. Voters are no clearer to knowing your plans, are they?
May does not accept that. She says she set out her plans, and her 12 objectives, in her Lancaster House speech. She claims Jeremy Corbyn has had seven Brexit plans in 12 months.
Q: After the 7/7 bombings the Tory opposition accused Tony Blair of a kneejerk response. Aren’t you doing the same?
May does not accept that. The threat is changing, she says.
She says she has spoken about what more needs to be done.
If human rights law get in the way of her taking action, she will change those laws.
Q: How would changing human rights laws have prevented the recent attacks. The attackers were known to the authorities already.
May says the threat is evolving, and so the government’s response needs to develop too.
Jeremy Corbyn has just finished speaking at a rally in Runcorn. He sounded remarkably energised and positive, and he ended with
I’m very proud of the positive message we’ve put forward ... And we have refrained from personal abuse because I do not believe that gets us anywhere. I understand, because my neighbours tell me, that some people have said some very unkind things about me. I forgive them all.
The Telegraph’s Kate McCann thinks Corbyn is on to something.
Corbyn says he has refrained from personal abuse. Interestingly, cabbie told me he switched from Tory to Labour bc of May's personal attacks
— Kate McCann (@KateEMcCann) June 7, 2017
Abbott has been diagnosed with 'serious, long-term condition', says Barry Gardiner
Diane Abbott has been diagnosed with “a serious, long-term condition”, Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, has told the Huffington Post.
I have been told that Diane has been diagnosed with a serious, long-term condition.
I hope people will simply say ‘OK, fair dos, if that’s the reason she’s been under par, we should back off’.
Updated
George Osborne, the former chancellor who was sacked by Theresa May, has run some awkward front pages for the Tories in his role as Evening Standard editor – but not today.
Today's @EveningStandard on eve of election reports the chaos engulfing Labour & sets out why we think people should vote Conservative pic.twitter.com/v8HskjXPlC
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) June 7, 2017
Updated
Updated
My colleague Jonathan Freedland is predicting that this will be Theresa May’s last general election as Conservative leader. Here’s his article.
And here is an extract.
If Theresa May wins this election, it will be despite the campaign she has just fought, not because of it. On a human level, she would be forgiven for wanting never to put herself through such an ordeal again. On a less human level, the Tory party are ruthless in their will to power. Even if they get a big majority on Thursday, they will not forget the campaign they have witnessed. Barring an earthquake in the coming years, they will ensure May does not get a chance to repeat it.
Updated
Earlier, my colleague Claire Phipps flagged up a handwritten message from Jeremy Corbyn to Daily Mirror readers (see 6.35am) but suggested (in terms) that cryptographers may be required if anyone hopes to read it.
Claire also posted on this on Twitter, and she’s had a reply from the man himself (or whoever manages his Twitter account), admitting his handwriting isn’t particularly neat and offering a text version.
Hi Claire, I've never had very neat handwriting. I hope everyone can read it but if not, this is what it says: pic.twitter.com/rps0lEajBP
— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) June 7, 2017
Updated
Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, has been grilled by Victoria Derbyshire on her BBC News show in one of her Carpool Karaoke-style interviews. Mostly he came out of it quite well, but he had to admit that he did not know the cost of a prescription.
Updated
Theresa May’s vow to rip up human rights laws if necessary to tackle terror suspects would involve declaring a state of emergency, European court of human rights officials have warned Britain, my colleague Alan Travis reports. Here is his story.
Here’s an extract.
May has denied that her pledge to rip up human rights laws to bring in a tougher regime of restrictions on terror suspects and deportations contradicts her manifesto pledge not to withdraw from the European convention on human rights in the next five years or repeal the Human Rights Act before Brexit.
Ministers claim that “derogation” – involving the partial and temporary withdrawal from the European human rights convention – is consistent with that manifesto pledge.
But the European court of human rights has pointed out that can only be done by declaring a state of emergency and that derogations can only be made “to the extent strictly required by the exigencies of the situation”.
And here is an extract from a European court of human rights factsheet showing the tough conditions that apply if a country wants to derogate from the European convention on human rights. (Italics from the factsheet.)
Article 15 (derogation in time of emergency) of the European convention on human rights affords to the governments of the states parties, in exceptional circumstances, the possibility of derogating, in a temporary, limited and supervised manner, from their obligation to secure certain rights and freedoms under the Convention. The use of that provision is governed by the following procedural and substantive conditions:
the right to derogate can be invoked only in time of war or other public emergency threatening the life of the nation;
a state may take measures derogating from its obligations under the convention only to the extent strictly required by the exigencies of the situation;
any derogations may not be inconsistent with the state’s other obligations under international law.
Theresa May is in classic Tory territory: a bowls club in Hampshire, where she has been making small talk and drinking tea with Conservative-supporting pensioners.
It is in the Labour-held marginal of Southampton Test, where Alan Whitehead has a majority of about 3,800 – one of the few remaining Labour seats in the south of England.
Earlier, the prime minister was in more hostile territory at Smithfield Market, where she met butchers in the early hours of the day.
There were a few boos and shouts of “vote Labour” and a heckle about her responsibility for policing cuts as well.
May will soon be on the move for a tour of more marginal seats in East Anglia and the Midlands, as the party leaders try to make the most of the last 24 hours of campaigning.
Updated
'We won't defeat terrorism by ripping up basic rights', says Corbyn
Jeremy Corbyn told BBC Breakfast this morning that he was “alarmed” by Theresa May’s threat to rip up human rights laws.
We won’t defeat terrorism by ripping up our basic rights and our democracy; we defeat terrorism by our communities, by our vigilance and by police action to isolate and detain those who could wish us harm ...
The independence of our whole judicial system is absolutely central to our lives and I become quite alarmed when the prime minister and others start talking about the need to change our human rights legislation. Our fundamental rights are very, very important; the right to free speech, the right to free assembly, the right to free elections, the right to access to the media and of course, the right to elect our politicians, all these things are absolutely central to our lives.
Let’s hold those as our central core beliefs. The threat to us from terrorist attacks has to be dealt with by effective policing and an effective security service. You don’t trade one off against the other. You make sure our democracy is fully intact and the threat is dealt with by an effective, properly resourced police force. You can’t get security on the cheap.
Updated
This is from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.
Abbott standing aside is 'indefinite'
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 7, 2017
This is based on what Labour sources are saying, the BBC reports.
“Indefinite” could mean anything. But the clear impression is that Diane Abbott will not become home secretary if Labour wins the election on Thursday, and even if the party loses, there is no guarantee she will return to her post.
Updated
Here is the Guardian story on Diane Abbott stepping aside as shadow home secretary on the grounds of ill health.
Updated
The Liberal Democrats are claiming that dozens of Conservative candidates have pulled out of constituency hustings.
The party issued a callout to candidates to report Tories withdrawing from events and received more than 70 responses.
Among them were claims that Zac Goldsmith, Nicola Blackwood, Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Priti Patel and Dominic Raab had not showed up.
Ed Davey, the Lib Dem campaign spokesman, said candidates were treating voters with “contempt”.
They are so arrogant they think this election is in the bag and they are simply trying to avoid encountering any actual live voters who might challenge them on their extreme Brexit, the rundown of the NHS and schools, and the ‘dementia tax’. This is a systematic attempt by Tory HQ to close down debate.
Updated
Here is another picture of Jeremy Corbyn speaking at the rally in Glasgow this morning.
The crowd is large, but nothing like as big as it was when he addressed a rally in Birmingham last night.
Corbyn’s ability to attract supporters to outdoor rallies has been one of the standout features of the election campaign and unlike anything seen in a British general election for years.
Channel 4 News’s Michael Crick said last night that Corbyn was attracting the biggest crowds since Churchill.
Corbyn rally, Birmingham tonight. He has probably addressed bigger meetings in 2017 than any leader since Churchill pic.twitter.com/FOKWoKNXAA
— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) June 6, 2017
Paul Mason, the Guardian columnist and Corbyn supporter, has gone one further; he’s made a comparison of sorts with Gladstone.
Coverage of Corbyn's huge rallies -5 seconds per news bulletin - tells u that BBC would have probably missed Gladstone's Midlothian campaign
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) June 6, 2017
Updated
Jeremy Corbyn had a rapturous reception from a large crowd of Labour activists, supporters and onlookers on Buchanan Street in central Glasgow, as he began this final five-stop tour of the UK, getting a kiss on the cheek from one man who said he had just joined Labour.
The new supporter, in his 20s, produced a Sharpie pen from his pocket and asked Corbyn to sign a Labour pledge card as the Labour leader waited to begin a live BBC interview.
A small break in interviews and a guy comes for an autograph. "A man who brings his own Sharpie, what more could you want?" says Corbyn. pic.twitter.com/5ULqZeoEbn
— Jamie Ross (@JamieRoss7) June 7, 2017
With a level of fervour Labour politicians in Scotland rarely enjoy, one woman in the crowd shouted “we love your integrity, Jeremy”, and others chanted: “There’s only one Jeremy Corbyn”.
The Labour leader said it was the 84th rally of the campaign.
They underestimated us, didn’t they, seven weeks ago? They underestimated the good sense of ordinary people, ordinary people all over Britain.
He launched into an impromptu question and refrain routine with the audience, who replied “too many” as he asked a series of rhetorical questions about the threats to pensioners and people on the minimum wage, and conversely the number of wealthy people with offshore accounts the Tories would protect.
@jeremycorbyn starts final day of #GE2017 campaign #Glasgow - "our party not offering deals: it's us, our principles" pic.twitter.com/KDayvVMMHZ
— Severin Carrell (@severincarrell) June 7, 2017
He said:
This campaign is a choice and there has never been a clearer choice: the choice is another five years of a Tory government and underfunding of services all across the UK, including here in Scotland, or a Labour government that invests for all, all across Britain.
To cries of “go on yersel, Jeremy,” he added: “Our party is not doing deals. We’re not offering anything other than us, our manifesto, our principles, our programme.”
Updated
Corbyn asks Lyn Brown to stand in for Diane Abbott as shadow home secretary
Labour has announced that Lyn Brown, a shadow Home Office minister, has been asked to stand in for Diane Abbott as shadow home secretary because Abbott is ill. In a statement, the party said:
Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour party, has asked Lyn Brown to stand in for Diane Abbott as shadow home secretary for the period of her ill health.
Updated
Starmer says 'nothing' in Human Rights Act stops terrorism being tackled effectively
And here is the key quote from Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary and former director of public prosecutions, when he told the Today programme that Theresa May’s attack on the Human Rights Act was a “diversion” because there is nothing in it that stops terrorism being tackled.
There is nothing in the Human Rights Act that gets in the way of effectively tackling terrorism. I can say that with this authority. I was director of public prosecutions for five years. I’ve worked very closely with the security and intelligence services and we’ve prosecuted very, very serious criminals. And the Human Rights Act did not get in the way of what we were doing.
This is a diversion ... We’ve had three terrible attacks in three months. The problem is people just coming onto the radar, then the question of how they are risk assessed, and what resource we’re putting in. And the prime minister, because she was facing searing questions about that yesterday, about resources, she has now brought up the Human Rights Act as if that stands in the way of the current problems.
Labour's @Keir_Starmer says PM's call to change Human Rights Act is "a diversion" https://t.co/qwsgj34Yzj #r4today pic.twitter.com/QmMjx6Q26h
— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) June 7, 2017
Updated
Clegg says May's threat to rip up human rights laws is 'crass ... posturing'
Nick Clegg, the former Liberal Democrat leader and former deputy prime minister, was on the Today programme earlier. Like Sir Keir Starmer (see 8.13am), he said Theresa May was wrong to blame the Human Rights Act for obstructing the fight against terrorism.
He said her policy announcements last night were a “crass last-minute attempt to divert attention from the much more difficult questions around our anti-terrorism policy to appeal to the splenetic prejudices of the rightwing tabloids”.
[There is] absolutely no shred of evidence that human rights laws are the reasons why these murderous acts happened in Manchester and London ...
None of this posturing about human rights is about keeping us safe, it’s all about making up for her lacklustre, flagging election campaign. I think it’s very cynical and I don’t think people will be taken in by it.
Attacking the principles of human rights legislation is not the way to keep us safe, we know already in the last few days that there are issues about the information provided by communities to the police not perhaps being acted upon. We hear overnight that one of the perpetrators of this atrocity on London Bridge was on an EU-wide database and for some reason that was not acted upon by British authorities.
Updated
Q: Should we do what they do in France, put hundreds of suspects under house arrest?
Starmer says there is no need to introduce a state of emergency.
Tpims can be placed on people.
Q: Many people say they are pathetically weak.
Starmer says they can last two years. They are strictly monitored.
The problem is that suspects are not being picked up early enough, he says.
Q: And last year the government ordered more staff at the intelligence services. So the government is doing what you want.
Starmer mentions cuts in community policing.
Q: But police numbers are now protected. May says the government must be more robust.
Starmer says any incoming new government must ask if the policy decisions (ie, cuts) have had an effect.
He is not necessarily saying they have, he says.
Q: Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May both refused to be interviewed on this programme. Isn’t that rather pathetic?
Starmer says he did not know that.
He says he thinks leaders should be on. But Corbyn has been “absolutely out there”, he says.
- Starmer implicitly criticises Corbyn for not giving Today an end-of-campaign interview.
Starmer points out that he never passes up a Today invite.
Q: If Corbyn becomes prime minister, will he be able to hold it together? Most Labour MPs have voted no confidence in Corbyn.
Starmer says all Labour candidates are supporting Corbyn.
He thinks they will form a strong team.
And that’s it. I’ll post a summary soon.
Updated
Q: May said we should worry more about the rights of people in this country than the rights of people who threaten us.
Starmer says he completely agrees the right to life must be protected.
The Human Rights Act has been tested, he says.
Where we have extremists, and evidence, they should be put on a Tpim or deported.
Q: Even if it is to countries where human rights are dubious?
May says the Human Rights Act has not got in the way.
We need to ask ourselves if the police cuts have reduced the amount of information coming in.
Q: And Lord Carlile, the former reviewer of terrorism legislation, says cuts to community policing have not effected the flow of information.
Starmer contests that.
Q; But what about the cases where people have not been deported to countries because their rights would be at risk.
Starmer says we are a country that adheres to human rights. If we throw those away, we are throwing away the values we believe in.
He says as director of public prosecutions, he found the Human Rights Act did not stop effective prosecutions.
Q: But you have not seen your daughter murdered on the streets of Britain. People who have will take a different view.
Starmer says he has spent a long time taking effective action against terrorists. He has spoken to victims. But we must take effective action, he says.
Updated
John Humphrys is interviewing Sir Keir Starmer.
He starts by saying Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have both refused to come on the programme for interviews at the end of the campaign, as party leaders normally do.
Q: May says if human rights laws get in the way of making us safe, we must change them. Do you agree?
Starmer says the nature of the threat means there are people only just coming on to the radar of the security services. They need more resources.
Q: But what about human rights law?
Starmer says:
There is nothing in the Human Rights Act that gets in the way of effectively tackling terrorism.
He knows, he says, because he was director of public prosecutions for five years.
This is a “diversion”, he says.
- Starmer says “nothing” in Human Rights Act stops terrorists being prosecuted.
Updated
Keir Starmer's Today interview
Good morning. I’m taking over from Claire.
Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, is about to be interviewed on the Today programme.
Andrew Sparrow is now here to pick up the live blog.
If you’d like to receive the Snap email briefing in your inbox tomorrow, Friday and for however long the election goes on, do sign up here.
You can read today’s Snap here.
John Harris and John Domokos round off their five-week election trek by tracking Jeremy Corbyn across England and Wales. In their new video they try to work out if the Labour surge is real – and what it might mean tomorrow:
Tim Farron began the final day of the Lib Dem campaign with an 6.30am start at a German cafe in Solihull for a “Brexit breakfast” of sausage and sauerkraut (though he declined to eat it on camera).
The Lib Dem leader will have travelled more than 1,900km (1,200 miles) over the past three days by the time he reaches the final campaign stop in Oxford late this evening.
In between, he’ll head to St Albans, Twickenham, Carshalton and Bath. The spa town is the only place in the west country that the battle bus has visited over the past week, which could be a strong hint that the Lib Dems no longer think they have much chance of snatching back their former heartlands.
Instead, the focus has been on Scotland, London, and remain-leaning cities such as Cambridge, Bath, Oxford and Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam constituency.
As he donned his chef’s apron, Farron said he was confident of gaining seats, despite the party polling in single figures:
We certainly feel the campaign has gone very well for us, against both the Conservatives and Labour and, I have to say, very well against the SNP north of the border as well. It’s not right to make any predictions but we are certainly buoyant about moving forward.
We are not going to give Theresa May a blank cheque to make those cuts to what we hold dear. There is only one opposition party that can go forward in this election: that’s the Liberal Democrats.
Tim Farron's cooking a Brexit-themed breakfast for reporters this morning in Solihull on the final day on the trail pic.twitter.com/dtFz31NmTS
— Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) June 7, 2017
Briefly, Damian Green is quizzed on cuts to winter fuel payments for pensioners; the Conservatives will not say ahead of polling day where the means-tested limit will fall.
Green says “the poorest pensioners” will be protected.
And he cites the unlikely triumvirate of Bernie Ecclestone, Mick Jagger and Labour’s shadow chancellor John McDonnell as pensioners who most would agree do not need the currently universal benefit.
Damian Green, the work and pensions secretary, has been talking to the Today programme. Unsurprisingly, he’s backing Theresa May’s message on human rights, saying changes to the law might be necessary to stop terror suspects:
It’s impossible to know the full evidence yet of recent attacks but what’s clear is there is a continuing, big terrorist threat … and that’s why the prime minister is proposing common-sense measures that would potentially give the police more powers to control people who there might not be enough evidence to bring to court.
Green agrees that the Conservatives have committed in their manifesto to staying in the European convention on human rights for the duration of the next parliament, “but it is possible to have derogations”. He says France has done so, as has Ireland in the past: “This wouldn’t be a new thing.”
Questioned on whether one of the Human Rights Act provisions a new Tory government would re-examine would be article 8, under which the right to family life can sometimes be used to prevent deportation, Green says:
That would be one of the things that would need to be looked at. We all remember the cases in the past.
(He probably is not referring to Theresa May, as home secretary, citing – wrongly – the case of a man who could not be deported because of his pet cat.)
Green claims cases such as the deportation of Abu Qatada show how “abuse of human rights legislation … could drag the case out for many, many years”.
Any responsible government would want to take these measures.
He concedes that toughening deportation rules could not tackle the issue of British-born terrorists, but says: “That’s only one of the proposals.”
Cracking down on internet extremism, and curfews “could certainly apply to British citizens as well”.
Any attempt to amend the Human Rights Act before it is repealed post-Brexit will require a derogation under the European convention on human rights. This involves declaring a technical state of emergency as was done with the Belmarsh regime of indefinite detention without charge in the aftermath of 9/11.
Ministers are also said to be considering restoring a power for the police to detain a suspect without charge for 28 days instead of the current 14 days. This would return to the position in 2011.
In her speech last night May said: “If human rights get in the way of doing these things, we will change those laws to make sure we can do them.”
This flatly contradicts the commitment in her own manifesto not to rip up or amend the Human Rights Act before Brexit (at least two years away) or to withdraw from the European convention on human rights for at least the next five years. Derogation, which would be needed, amounts to a temporary and partial withdrawal from the convention.
“We will not repeal or replace the Human Rights Act while the process of Brexit is underway but we will consider our human rights legal framework when the process of leaving the EU concludes. We will remain signatories to the European convention on human rights for the duration of the next parliament,” says the manifesto.
The Plymouth Herald reports that more than 1,500 voters in the city have not received their postal ballots, with 24 hours to go until polling opens.
It says 600 replacements have been issued so far, with those still missing their papers encouraged to contact the city council or visit in person to pick one up.
A broader reminder: replacement postal ballot papers can be issued up to 5pm on polling day – that’s tomorrow, if you’re new to this election lark – and must be returned by 10pm.
Theresa May’s promise to shred human rights laws that “stop us” from tackling the terror threat could cover a number of measures.
The prime minister set out some explicitly:
I can tell you a few of the things I mean by that: I mean longer prison sentences for people convicted of terrorist offences. I mean making it easier for the authorities to deport foreign terror suspects to their own countries.
And I mean doing more to restrict the freedom and the movements of terrorist suspects when we have enough evidence to know they present a threat, but not enough evidence to prosecute them in full in court.
And if human rights laws stop us from doing it, we will change those laws so we can do it.
Other measures could include curfews, restrictions on association with other known extremists, controls on where those under suspicion can travel and limits on access to communication devices.
May suggested in an interview with the Sun that she could seek to increase the period for which terror suspects can be held without trial, which is currently 14 days, to 28 – something for which draft emergency legislation (published when the limit was lowered to 14 days under the coalition government in 2011) already exists.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have argued that many of these powers already exist and others could be extended without trashing human rights laws.
The Snap: your election briefing
It’s the last day of campaigning, and time to plot your snacks and strategic naps for tomorrow. I’m Claire Phipps with what you need to take you through polling day eve, along with the early politics news. Andrew Sparrow will be along later. Find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
What’s happening?
A maelstrom of vote-wooing, pledge-waving and opponent-swiping. It’s the final chance for politicians to impress voters with what they think will be the clinching enticements. For Theresa May, it’s a vow to rip up human rights laws to crack down on terror suspects. For Jeremy Corbyn, it’s a warning that there are but “24 hours to save the NHS” (well, it worked for some Tony chap in 1997). For Nicola Sturgeon, it’s a question of whether the UK really wants May tackling Brexit negotiations. For Tim Farron, it’s a question of whether the UK really wants anyone tackling Brexit negotiations.
The PM’s planned pitch today was to be “more jobs, more homes, better roads and railways, and world-class digital connectivity”, but that message is likely to be blanketed by her announcement last night – after another day of pressure over police cuts and questions over security misses – that she has her eye on human rights laws:
I can tell you a few of the things I mean by that: I mean longer prison sentences for people convicted of terrorist offences. I mean making it easier for the authorities to deport foreign terror suspects to their own countries.
And I mean doing more to restrict the freedom and the movements of terrorist suspects when we have enough evidence to know they present a threat, but not enough evidence to prosecute them in full in court.
And if human rights laws stop us from doing it, we will change those laws so we can do it.
Do human rights laws stop her at the moment? May’s opponents say no. The Lib Dem leader accused her of “posturing”, saying: “We have been here before – a kind of nuclear arms race in terror laws might give the appearance of action, but what the security services lack is not more power, but more resources.” Labour peer Shami Chakrabarti told BBC Newsnight: “We can provide any new powers that are truly necessary and proportionate within the human rights framework and within the rule of law.”
For the Sun, which today carries an interview with the PM on her proposed crackdown, that’s not going far enough. If Google, YouTube, Facebook and Twitter fail “to eradicate the jihadist filth they publish to the world”, the newspaper says:
Mrs May should consider the nuclear option: ordering our internet service providers to shut down these vast sites until they are purged.
From the nuclear option to the Labour leader (and there’s the definition of an awkward segue), who’s taken his turn in the Mirror to urge voters to achieve “something special” and put him into No 10.
The message – “We are going to win” – is clear. The handwriting is not (though I believe he’s signed it “Jez”). Answers on a placard, please.
Voice of the Mirror: Give hope a chance and vote Labour on Thursday https://t.co/w2ZZb4heIj pic.twitter.com/IWzFvuOugG
— Mirror Politics (@MirrorPolitics) June 6, 2017
I can’t decipher a “Brexit” in there, but it’s a drum that will be getting a thwack from other parties today. The Lib Dems are urging tactical voting against the “hapless and heartless” Tories. Sturgeon tells the Guardian that May’s dire warnings about Brexit talks beginning just 11 days after the election were a peculiar diary clash:
Did she only find that out after she called the election? It does seem a pretty bizarre argument to underline the importance of the Brexit negotiations and the imminence of the start of the negotiations when she took the decision to call an election that has dominated, presumably, her time and everyone else’s time for the past two months.
In a testy Scottish leaders’ debate on STV on Tuesday evening, Sturgeon also ran up against her Labour counterpart, Kezia Dugdale, claiming Dugdale had conceded in a private conversation the day after the Brexit vote that her party ought to drop its opposition to an independence referendum. The claim, Dugdale responded, was “absolute nonsense”, upping this in a later tweet to “a categoric lie”.
At a glance:
- The Guardian view on Northern Ireland’s election.
- From the BBC: DUP rejects Loyalist endorsement.
- Kezia Dugdale and Carwyn Jones at odds over Labour support for Barnett formula.
- Who can I vote for? Find out about your election candidates.
- What the manifestos mean for public services: health; social care; social security; housing; disability; local government; home affairs; the civil service; the environment; and devolved powers.
- Catch up with the Guardian’s Election Daily podcast.
Poll position
Opinium’s final poll before the only real poll settles on the Conservatives with 43% (unchanged from its Saturday survey) and Labour on 36%, down one. The Lib Dems sit on 8%, with Ukip on 5%. That’s in keeping with overall poll trackers, which have the gap at the top somewhere between six points (FT) and nine (Guardian).
There’s dampening news for Labour supporters hoping an effusion of young voters will swoosh Corbyn into Downing Street: fresh research from the National Centre for Social Research suggests barely half of under-30s (53%) say they are certain to vote.
Diary
- Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron criss-cross the country in search of last-minute votes. The PM hits south-east and eastern England, plus the Midlands; the Labour leader travels from Glasgow to a final rally in London; and the Lib Dem leader will round off his day in Oxford.
- Early start for Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, joined by candidate Ian Murray and Alistair Darling in Edinburgh first thing.
- Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie is in Cupar, Fife.
- At 10am, the Scottish Greens protest outside the US consulate in Edinburgh over Donald Trump’s junking of the Paris climate accord.
- Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood is out and about in Treorchy this morning.
- Nicola Sturgeon joins the crowded campaign trail in Edinburgh this afternoon, after first minister’s questions at Holyrood at noon.
Read these
Roger Cohen in the New York Times argues the case for Corbyn:
Elections take place in the real world; they often involve unpleasant choices. I dislike Corbyn’s anti-Americanism, his long flirtation with Hamas, his coterie’s clueless leftover Marxism and anti-Zionism, his Nato bashing, his unworkable tax-and-spend promises. He’s of that awful cold war left that actually believed Soviet Moscow was probably not as bad as Washington.
Still, Corbyn would not do May’s shameful Trump-love thing. He would not succumb to the jingoistic anti-immigration talk of the Tories. After the terrorist attacks, he said ‘difficult conversations’ were needed with Saudi Arabia: Hallelujah! He would tackle rising inequality. He would seek a soft departure from the European Union keeping Britain as close to Europe as possible. His victory – still improbable – would constitute punishment of the Tories for the disaster of Brexit. Seldom would a political comeuppance be so merited.
And in Holyrood magazine, Mandy Rhodes profiles the man who has become a staple of TV election coverage without being called Dimbleby – Professor John Curtice:
For 24 hours, Curtice lives and breathes a general election. As voters head to the polling stations, he is holed up in a top secret location in central London along with a small group of other academics and number crunchers. From early morning, exit poll data compiled at over 100 selected polling stations starts to pour in to the charmless BBC office where the analysis begins. By early afternoon, clear patterns are beginning to emerge, allowing the boffins to start to make more detailed predictions about seats won and lost. At about 2pm, Curtice could make a fair punt at the result but he won’t, yet.
There is a small window of time as the polling stations close, before David Dimbleby makes the announcement, and before Curtice steps into the taxi at 10.03pm which will ferry him to the BBC studios at Elstree to begin a marathon of political commentary through the night, where only he really knows what the exit poll is saying and what it could mean for the country. He also knows that there is that chance (albeit a slim one in the context of his past record) that whatever the exit poll says, he and his team could be the heroes or zeroes of the day when the final tally is realised. But there is little time to ponder. Curtice gets to the studio and the one question on everyone’s lips is ‘who is in and who is out?’ And so it begins.
Revelation of the day
The lengths politicians will go to in order to show their human side … Theresa May confessed to running through fields of wheat as a child, the scamp. My colleague Elena Cresci Allen-key-twisted these Welsh politicians into attempting to assemble a strong and stable flatpack bedside table (the results were more cabinet of chaos). But the winner today – and surely of the campaign – must be Greg Knight, the Conservative candidate for East Yorkshire. If you haven’t seen his video, I insist you stop reading right away and watch it. Yes, now. I can wait.
The day in a tweet
It’s a cross-stitch of the election polls, of course.
When am I allowed to sleep pic.twitter.com/rVumChSV6q
— Mothra Theresa (@SirSandGoblin) June 6, 2017
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