Suicide rates among U.S. children aged 10 to 14 were nearly identical for girls and boys in 2024, according to an analysis of federal mortality data published this week in JAMA Pediatrics. The rate stood at 2.38 per 100,000 for boys and 2.28 per 100,000 for girls, a difference of about 4%.
Jean Twenge, a psychologist at San Diego State University who conducted the analysis using the CDC's Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, described the convergence to MedPage Today as the first time this has happened in the available records.
For decades, the pattern ran the other way. As recently as 2017, the rate for boys in this age group was roughly double the rate for girls. The two lines then moved in opposite directions: between 2018 and 2024 the rate for boys fell 35%, while the rate for girls rose 13%.
The Longer Trajectory Behind the Convergence
Widening the window makes the shift clearer. /From 2007 to 2024, the rate for boys aged 10 to 14 nearly doubled, climbing from 1.20 to 2.38 per 100,000. Over the same period, the rate for girls more than quadrupled, rising from 0.51 to 2.28.
The gap did not close because boys became safe. It closed because a steep increase among girls overtook a partial decline among boys from a much higher peak. Suicide remains the second leading cause of death among Americans aged 10 to 14, after accidents.
The pattern is not confined to one group or region. The narrowing appeared among non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic white youth. Twenge also noted comparable shifts internationally, with rates among females aged 10 to 19 exceeding rates among males in recent years in Spain, South Korea and Japan. Published national analyses in Japan describe the same reversal among students. That consistency is one reason researchers treat the change as a real signal rather than a data artifact.
The Analysis Describes a Pattern, Not a Cause
This is where careful reporting matters most.
The study is a cross-sectional analysis of national mortality records. It documents what happened. It does not identify why, and was not designed to. Explanations circulating publicly, including social media use, pandemic disruption, changes in mental health service access, and shifts in how deaths are classified, are hypotheses of varying evidentiary strength. None is established by this dataset.
Two limitations belong up front rather than at the end. These are rates per 100,000 in a population of roughly 21 million U.S. children, so absolute numbers are small and year-to-year movement can be noisy. And 2024 mortality data may still be revised as records are finalized, which is standard for federal vital statistics.
What the analysis does establish is that a long-standing assumption has stopped holding. Screening habits built around the premise that preteen girls face substantially lower risk than preteen boys are working from a distribution that no longer matches the data.
The Practical Shift for Families and Clinicians
For parents, the takeaway is narrower and more useful than the headline number suggests. It is not that every child is now at high risk. It is that an assumption many adults carry without examining it, that this is mostly something that happens to boys — is out of date for the 10 to 14 age group.
Warning signs worth taking seriously in a preteen include withdrawal from friends and activities the child previously valued, marked changes in sleep or appetite, giving away possessions, expressions of hopelessness or of being a burden, and any statement about not wanting to be alive. A sudden shift from prolonged distress to unexplained calm also warrants attention.
Asking a child directly whether they are thinking about suicide does not plant the idea. Research consistently shows that direct questions open a conversation instead. If a child discloses thoughts of self-harm, stay with them, work with a clinician on making the home safer, and contact a pediatrician, a mental health clinician or the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline, which is available around the clock by call or text. Emergency departments are appropriate when a child is in immediate danger.
Access is the constraint most families hit. Pediatric mental health capacity remains thin nationally, and waits for a first child psychiatry appointment can run months in large metro areas. Families can ask a pediatrician about interim options, including collaborative care embedded in primary care, school-based counseling, and telehealth. School counselors and nurses are an entry point that does not require insurance authorization.
The next federal mortality release will show whether 2024 represented a crossing point or a plateau. Until then, the reasonable position is that a preteen's sex should not be used, by a parent or a clinician, as a reason to weigh a warning sign less heavily.
Key Questions Answered
What did the analysis find? In 2024, suicide rates among U.S. children aged 10 to 14 were 2.38 per 100,000 for boys and 2.28 for girls, the closest in available records.
Did the rate for boys go down? Between 2018 and 2024, the rate for boys fell 35%, while the rate for girls rose 13%. Across the longer period from 2007 to 2024, both rose substantially.
Does the study explain why? No. It documents a pattern in mortality data. It does not test causes, and no explanation is established by these findings.
What should parents watch for? Withdrawal from friends and activities, changes in sleep or appetite, giving away possessions, expressions of hopelessness or of being a burden, and any statement about not wanting to be alive.
Where can a family get help quickly? The 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline is available by call or text around the clock. Pediatricians, school counselors and school nurses are also accessible entry points, and emergency departments are appropriate when a child is in immediate danger.
