Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's chances of returning to power after the upcoming general election have improved as his political opponents face significant challenges, according to political experts.
The election is tentatively scheduled to take place on May 7 according to the Election Commission (EC). As the polls draw near, political experts and academics are weighing in on Gen Prayut's chances of winning under a new party.
UTN's political strategy
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok's Institute, said the United Thai Nation (UTN) party, of which Gen Prayut is chief strategist, appears to have adopted a strategy to compensate for its shortfall of politicians linked to political dynasties known as "Ban Yai" (Big House).
"More politicians are expected to migrate to the UTN Party, whose strategy is not to aim for a clean sweep in any province," he said. "One MP per province is good enough, and it also saves party resources."
He said the UTN party's strategy is different from that of Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, which focus on luring "Ban Yai" MPs and banking on their vast political clout to make a sweep of their target provinces.
The UTN party is likely to win no less than 40 seats from the constituency system, he said. Combined with 15 party-list seats, UTN seats will likely surpass that of the ruling-Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), Mr Stithorn said.
He added that both parties will form a coalition government, together with other parties, including Bhumjaithai and Democrats, after the poll.
Some analysts began speculating about the end of Gen Prayut's political career amid disagreements surrounding his tenure as prime minister. The constitution caps a premier's term limit at eight years.
Although the Constitutional Court ruled in September that Gen Prayut's eight-year term in office did not expire on Aug 24 as some argued it should, some observers were tempted to write Gen Prayut off. They reckoned that with just two years left to serve, fielding him as a prime minister candidate may not be worth the PPRP's effort.
The PPRP, which backed Gen Prayut in the 2019 polls, was his party before he moved to the UTN. The court in its decision reasoned the prime minister's term should be calculated from the promulgation of the constitution on April 6, 2017.
When Gen Prayut jumped ship to the UTN, the move raised questions about whether the newly-established party could muster enough strength to be his vehicle to victory.
Political watchers doubted whether the UTN, which had a late start, could grab as many as 25 House seats -- the number the party needs to nominate Gen Prayut as prime ministerial candidate.
However, the ruling PPRP, which had an early campaign start, faces challenges of its own, according to political observers. There are signs the PPRP's election campaign is losing momentum, they said.
Facing challenges
According to the EC, the PPRP has branches and representatives in 44 provinces. It means the party is ready to field candidates in 44 out of 77 provinces in the country.
The UTN, on the other hand, has branches and representatives in all 77 provinces to field candidates, while the Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai and Democrat parties have branches and representatives in 75.
Mr Stithorn said a landslide win will elude the Pheu Thai Party, which is likely to capture about 200 seats.
If Pheu Thai is unable to set up a government, several of its MPs will turn rogue and side with other parties, he said.
Gen Prayut's chances
Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, said people should not underestimate Gen Prayut and write off his chances of returning.
As head of the government, Gen Prayut's campaign is more likely to capture media attention, not to mention the UTN's financial influence, he said.
"The UTN doesn't need to worry too much about the number of seats it wins because it can lure renegade MPs from other parties to get more than 250 votes," he said. "And the 250-member Senate will support his bid for the PM post."
However, Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration, said Gen Prayut's chances are slim.
Favourites to become the next PM are PPRP leader Prawit Wongsuwon and Pheu Thai's Paetongtarn Shinawatra, he said, adding who will take the job depends on post-poll talks.
Citing Nida Poll results, he said the UTN and its potential allies will muster about 200 seats only as they have overlapping support bases. The post-election coalition government will be the Pheu Thai-PPRP-Prachachart with Gen Prawit and Ms Paetongtarn sharing power, he said.
He said the UTN-led camp does not have the legitimacy to form a government if it can only gather 200 seats. "Trying to lure support from renegade MPs will only lead to a political crisis," he said.
Sutin Klungsang, deputy leader of the Pheu Thai Party, said the party is on track for clinching a landslide win and its popularity is expected to rise further following the inclusion of property tycoon Srettha Thavisin in its campaign.
He said Bhumjaithai, seen as the party's main rival, also faces a number of allegations that could throw its election campaign in disarray. Bhumjaithai, which is predicted to finish second in the poll, has a political storm to weather after the party emerged as a target of whistleblower Chuvit Kamolvisit, who accuses key party figures of being involved in irregularities.
Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob, who is the party's secretary-general, has been suspended by the Constitutional Court pending its ruling on alleged share concealment. As for the UTN and the PPRP, Mr Sutin said their popularity does not match that of Pheu Thai and the Move Forward Party and their success depends on their financial clout.
