Gov. Gavin Newsom’s public slugfests with the governors of Texas and Florida over immigration and abortion is generating important national attention. But perhaps even more importantly — assuming he has further political aspirations — his more aggressive demeanor is endearing him to influential Democratic insiders.
“I’m glad he’s speaking up. I like that,” said Larry Drake, chairman of the Rockingham County, New Hampshire Democratic committee. “Activists will notice.”
“I certainly noticed,” added Scott Brennan, Iowa Democratic national committeeman and former state party chairman.
The California governor’s moves, which include billboard and television ads blasting Republicans in GOP-dominated states, fuel speculation that all this is a prelude to a future presidential bid.
Newsom has said chances he’ll run for president in 2024 are “subzero.” But his most recent actions are doing enough to get into the conversation.
He’s a clear favorite to easily win a second term governing the country’s largest state, which has the world’s fifth largest economy. He’s 54, which means he’d be a viable candidate in 2024 or well beyond. And he’s proven he can raise the sort of money needed for a national campaign.
What Newsom would need in a White House bid is a unique selling point, an image or an action that will stick in the minds of activists. That matters in places such as Iowa, traditionally the site of the first presidential caucus, and New Hampshire, which has for years held the first primary.
“There is no shortage of progressive Democrats taking a much more confrontational tone than Biden, but Newsom is one of the few Democrats voicing that anger and frustration from the center left,” said Dan Schnur, a professor at USC and former GOP political consultant.
“Newsom has the potential to give voice to their anger and frustration,” said Schnur, who recently wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post about Newsom headlined “Gavin Newsom is working hard to be lucky.”
Public asks, who is Newsom?
Still, Newsom is at least currently largely unknown to the masses outside California. The University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll in July found that when Democratic voters were asked who they wanted as their nominee in 2024, Newsom was tied for third with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. But each had only 10%.
But the development to watch as races unfold is what the insiders think and do. Their support is coveted, since they invite them into their homes and community centers for small gatherings and talk them up to the fundraisers and organizers.
Newsom has made no such moves publicly. But he’s building a reputation that many Democrats have long sought — someone eager to do the “blocking and tackling,” as Antjuan Seawright, a Columbia, South Carolina, strategist, put it.
“It’s awesome that he’s taking this on,” said Aimee Allison, Oakland-based founder and president of She The People, a national network for women of color.
Newsom first received enormous national political attention on July 4, when he ran a 30-second ad on Fox television stations in Florida slamming former President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis.
“Republican leaders, they’re banning books, making it harder to vote, restricting speech in classrooms, even criminalizing women and doctors,” he said in the ad.
Earlier this month, he placed ads on billboards in seven conservative states that had taken the toughest steps recently to outlaw or restrict abortion. The ads promote California’s new abortion access website, abortion.CA.gov.
“Need an abortion? California is ready to help,” was among the messages on the billboards.
Soon after, Newsom acted in response to the busing of migrants from Texas and Florida to places such as Martha’s Vineyard, New York City and Washington, D.C.,
Newsom tweeted that he was “formally requesting” the Justice Department to “begin an immediate investigation into these inhumane efforts to use kids as political pawns.”
Nathan Click, an advisor to Newsom, said the governor’s new, emboldened attitude arose from last year’s Republican-led recall aimed at kicking him out of office. Newsom easily beat the effort.
“That experience underscored for him, at a basic level, that to be successful in politics, you have to define the opposition,” Click said. “You can’t be meek or cagey about explaining to voters who these Republicans are and what they’re trying to do.
“Rather than complaining, he’s taking the fight to the Republicans.”
Newsom’s California problem
To Democratic activists, Newsom’s fight is what they’ve often said was lacking among party officials.
Peter Kelly, former Democratic Party national finance chairman, has said one of the party’s great problems was “an inability to persist in a negative against a candidate.”
Newsom’s national image still has lots of hurdles to overcome.
One is how much staying power all this activity will have.
“The New Hampshire political world has been focused on state politics, since we had such a late primary. I know he did weigh in on the possible illegal activity involved in the DeSantis stunt with the people sent to Martha’s Vineyard, but it was a small piece of the story,” said Kathleen Sullivan, former New Hampshire Democratic Party chairwoman.
New Hampshire’s primary was Sept. 13, and its Democratic senator and one of its congressmen faced tough challenges from Republicans.
A bigger problem is California’s image.
Politicians from the Golden State are branded “coastal insiders,” said Brennan. Republicans have long used the term “San Francisco Democrat” to blast House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose district includes the city, and they likely would do the same with Newsom, a former San Francisco mayor.
As Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant and former communications director for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, put it, “his time in the barrel is coming.”
“I think he’s done a great job pulling himself to the head of the pack,” Stutzman said about Newsom. “But there comes a time in the rhythm of these campaigns where he’ll be in the backlash again and he’ll have to face a level of scrutiny that he hasn’t had to withstand yet.”
In the New Hampshire poll, only half the Democrats viewed him favorably. “The ‘California’ label is probably pushing down his favorables,” said poll director Andrew Smith.
Any presidential handicapping, though, remains well into the future. For now, Newsom is slugging away, and the party power brokers are taking notice.
“The potential candidates for 2024,” Kelly said, “are being so quiet. Except for Newsom.”
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