I’m a little confused after Wales versus Ireland and what's in store for Murrayfield this weekend.
What my eyes saw was Wales getting overwhelmed in the first half in Cardiff. Ireland’s dynamism and ferocity left Warren Gatland's side helpless and bewildered. The contest was over well before half-time.
Anything that happened from then on has to be considered with a bucket full of salt. It was comforting to see Wales throw a few punches in the second half and regain a degree of respect but a 34-10 defeat at home is a chastening result.
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My confusion arose after listening to Gatland’s comments in the post match interviews. Not only was he not too disappointed with a record home defeat in the Six Nations, but that had it not been for a dropped pass here, a penalty there and the odd missed lineout, he reckons Wales could have made the last 20 minutes very interesting.
I could not marry up these conflicting messages coming from different senses. The only way I could reconcile these opposing thoughts is by realising that Gatland was trying to set the agenda ahead of a very challenging trip to Scotland. He is a master manipulator in the press and trying to downplay the gargantuan gulf between Wales and Ireland he could avoid some of the harsher criticism that would be coming Wales’ way.
Fair play to him, the strategy appears to have worked and many people seem to be willing to overlook the actual scoreline because Wales got into Ireland’s 22 a few times.
A chance at redemption presents itself this weekend as Wales take on a rampant Scotland. We have been here before, and invariably Wales have found a way of putting the Scots back in their box after they have beaten England.
Gatland has never lost to Scotland but this weekend will be a major threat to that record. In past games Gatland has had a team that could dominate Scotland physically. Even when Wales have not been at their best, they could overpower Scotland and steal a win.
Last year under Wayne Pivac, Wales dragged Scotland down to their level and frustrated the heck out of Finn Russell to secure their only victory of the Six Nations. It was a dire game, and that’s how Wales have beaten Scotland over these many years.
There are two problems with this approach for Saturday's match. Firstly, Wales do not have the players, the set-piece or the ball carriers to be able to dominate Scotland like they used to. If anything, Scotland look like they have the edge in physicality.
Secondly, Gregor Townsend will have spent the week imploring his team not to get dragged into another arm-wrestle. The risk for Scotland is that they will be so determined to avoid a kick-fest that they take on too many risks and play themselves into trouble.
But with Townsend and Russell at the helm, Scotland will not shy away from high-risk rugby. The pace at which they are able to play makes Wales look pedestrian by comparison.
Wales will no doubt kick the ball repeatedly in the middle third as they did against Ireland but that has significant drawbacks, Duhan van der Merwe being one, but perhaps more importantly is that teams in possession are three times more likely to be awarded a penalty than the defending side.
The directive from World Rugby is clear, they want to see the game sped up and will punish any negative actions that slow the game down. The trouble is that the team in defence are constantly doing everything in their power to slow the opposition speed of ball and so it follows that the defending side are under more scrutiny.
Wales must start keeping the ball and building phases around the middle of the field before resorting to the kick and chase. Otherwise, Scotland will get the ball and will be more than happy to start running it back. They will look to do the things they can to avoid slowing the game down. Counter attacks, quick lineouts and tap penalties are easy ways to inject pace into the game and they will look to do each of those.
Gatland has made several changes for the trip north and rightly so. Some youth and exuberance may help Wales play with the vigour and tempo that I only seem to see in other teams.
This campaign is already a massive examination of Gatland’s skills as a coach and as a selector. He has big decisions to make. The old guard are clearly on notice, some have already lost their place in the starting XV, and another lacklustre performance may well be their last.
Can Wales and Gatland find yet another improbable win? If they do it will prove that there is still a place for dragging the game into an arm-wrestle and frustrating the opposition. If they don’t, then this may well trigger an even bigger major reset in the team, but more importantly the tactics.
I can’t see Scotland letting themselves be lulled into submission this time around. I think that the home team will win by seven points.
Gwyn Jones is a part of S4C’s Clwb Rygbi Rhyngwladol team. S4C’s coverage of Scotland v Wales gets underway at 4pm on Saturday. Also, watch coverage of Scotland Under 20s v Wales Under 20s from 6.45pm on Friday night, English commentary available.
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