With most of the country facing a gas supply crunch in recent weeks, it's hardly surprising the idea of a west-east gas pipeline has been mooted once again.
The idea to connect Western Australia's gas resources to the eastern states is not new, but while some experts believe it is a no-brainer to shore up energy security, others say it will be obsolete by the time it is built as the nation forges ahead with its renewables transition.
When Australia's national electricity market operator suspended the spot market for wholesale electricity in response to the energy crisis gripping the east of the continent, two Macquarie academics proposed several solutions.
While stressing there was no silver bullet to achieve energy security, Tina Soliman Hunter and Madeline Taylor proposed three linked solutions.
- shipping gas from WA to east coast ports
- gas reservation policies like the ones in WA
- connect WA's gas pipelines to the rest of the country
They noted that not only could a west-east pipeline help address the energy crisis on the east coast, but it could also carry hydrogen in the future.
"For years, it has been seen as too difficult; not technically, but commercially, since most pipelines are privately owned," they wrote.
They urged the government to "step up and build it, given the importance of energy security".
China has shown the concept is achievable with its West-East Gas Pipeline network, which stretches more than 8,700 kilometres, with expansions planned.
It already delivers billions of cubic metres of natural gas from China's western gas fields to Shanghai and other population centres in the east of the country.
Pipeline would cost billions
A trans-Australian pipeline is not a new idea.
In the 1970s, Whitlam government minister Rex Connor proposed a pipeline from WA's North West Shelf through remote desert landscapes to the eastern seaboard.
A 2017 feasibility study estimated it would cost $5.8 billion to build a 2,900-kilometre pipeline from Dampier, in WA's north, to Moomba, in South Australia, near the borders with Queensland and New South Wales.
Then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said connecting WA's gas resources to the eastern states was an "opportunity" his government was considering.
By May 2020, a west-east pipeline underwritten by the Federal Government was back on the agenda as part of a draft report by the National COVID Coordination Commission to help the economy recover from the virus.
Questions over how gas will fit into future energy mix
And now with much of the country facing severe energy uncertainty and high prices, the idea has emerged again.
But not everyone shares the Macquarie academics' enthusiasm for the project, with concerns it is not commercially viable, that more gas is not the answer when renewables are increasing, and the need for clear government policy backing.
Even those who are advocates of gas as a transition fuel to a low-carbon economy recognised the serious challenges involved.
Roberto Aguilera, a senior research fellow at Curtin University's Oil and Gas Innovation Centre, said addressing east coast energy shortages could involve tapping into WA's huge unconventional shale gas resources in the Canning Basin, through the controversial method of hydraulic fracturing, with reserves estimated at about 250 trillion cubic feet.
But for Dr Aguilera, the key question was where natural gas would fit in the long-term energy mix as Australia seeks to meet its emissions-reduction targets.
"In the case that renewables are not able to meet our energy requirements as quickly as many are hoping, then natural gas from the Canning Basin, which is so well endowed, could help us satisfy energy requirements domestically and meet the export obligations, with the cleanest burning fossil fuel.
"Probably, we'll find out if this project is in fact feasible and makes sense as the energy market starts to settle down."
Pipeline will be obsolete by time it's finished, expert says
Dr Aguilera's colleague at Curtin University, professor of sustainability Peter Newman, was certain an almost 3000km-long gas pipeline was not the answer.
"No, its not because by the time you finish it there'll be no need for the gas," Professor Newman said.
"Solar and batteries are now so cheap and effective. Batteries come on in milliseconds when there is any variation in the grid. It's six seconds for gas-fired power station to come on."
Rosalind Archer, head of Engineering and Built Environment at Griffith University, also questioned whether a pipeline would address long-term energy issues.
"The electricity crisis the eastern states are experiencing is driven by the need for dispatchable electricity plants," Professor Archer said.
"However, a decarbonised future needs to embrace low CO2 emissions technology options such as batteries, pumped hydro, or large scale generation and storage of hydrogen."
Pipeline not best option to fix supply issues, study found
The Turnbull's government's 2017 feasibility study also found a west-east pipeline was "not the best or most economical option" for dealing with supply issues facing the gas market in eastern Australia at that time.
The analysis by ACIL Allen Consulting concluded it was a technically feasible option but the "commercial and market risks present major challenges for the project".
Namely, it would need to lock in enough long-term commitments from both gas producers and buyers to reduce the risk enough to make it viable from a financing point of view.
It said the considerable market uncertainty at the time, which still exists now, was not conducive to making long-term contractual commitments.
ACIL Allen consulted with state and territory governments, gas producers, pipeline operators and major gas users who raised these market-related risks, and also the question of government financing, regulatory risks, and questions over the best route for a pipeline, with Moomba preferred as it would maximise access to the market.
Critically, Western Australia was concerned about domestic gas supply to its own state beyond the mid-2020s because of an expected reduction in gas supply from the North West Shelf.
"There was no appetite to divert gas from existing fields away from LNG or outside of the Western Australian domestic market," the study stated.
Project would not address immediate problems
The study estimated a pipeline would take at least seven years to complete and would not solve the immediate problems of high prices and constrained supply.
It instead proposed in the short-term increasing supply from the Bass Strait and redirecting gas from Queensland LNG projects into the domestic market.
Long-term, it pointed to the development of conventional, shale and tight gas developments in areas much closer than WA's north-west.
But it said if these alternatives did not come online quickly enough to secure long-term gas supplies for the eastern states, "the West-East Pipeline could emerge as the best available option".
"For this reason, it would make sense to keep that option open."
Energy landscape has changed since 2017
Griffith University senior lecturer Alexandr Akimov said domestic and international factors had changed since the 2017 feasibility study.
He said geopolitical risks, such as the war in Ukraine, made it more sensible for Australia to ensure its self-sufficiency in gas, and a cross-country pipeline that could also carry hydrogen was worth discussing.
"I think it's a good idea worth revisiting," he said.
Dr Akimov argued renewables were not reliable enough or on a large enough scale yet to replace other energy sources.
At the same time, though, his assessment was the probability of the pipeline being built, especially without government financial and policy support, was unlikely.
Even if the Labor government did back the project, the Greens would block it in the Senate, leaving it up to the private sector to fund, he said.
"The appetite of financiers to fund fossil-fuel related projects has probably diminished to quite a considerable degree, so where would you find funding for such a project?" he said.
