Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC has said that Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) second-quarter 2026 delivery figures could exceed expectations due to surging gas costs.
Gary Black’s Updated Tesla Delivery Prediction
The investor took to the social media platform X on Wednesday, sharing an updated prediction on Tesla deliveries set to be reported Thursday morning. The investor said that he expects Tesla to report approximately 420,000 units delivered, up from his earlier prediction of nearly 410,000 units.
Black said that the updated figures were to account for gas price surges and strong gains in the European market for EVs. “This is likely to be TSLA’s 2nd consecutive YoY deliveries advance in excess of +5% after declining -9% in 2025 and -1% in 2024,” the investor said.
I now expect $TSLA 2Q deliveries to be ~420,000 (+9% YoY), well ahead of WS consensus of 406,000 after gas prices surged in 2Q, sparking strong gains in EV adoption throughout Europe. This is likely to be TSLA’s 2nd consecutive YoY deliveries advance in excess of +5% after… https://t.co/AoAxBUxHgV
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 1, 2026
In a separate post, Black highlighted the surge in both Tesla and Rivian stock ahead of delivery reports, saying that the upward movement threw “cold water on the idea that TSLA’s rise has to do with sudden excitement about FSD or AI.”
The investor also shared that close to “72% of TSLA profits and 100% of RIVN profits” were due to EVs and that the delivery surge due to rising oil prices was “clearly the reason for renewed optimism in both EV makers.” Black predicted Rivian delivering close to 10,600 units.
$TSLA and $RIVN both rising into 2Q delivs tomorrow, throwing cold water on the idea that TSLA’s rise has to do with sudden excitement about FSD or AI. With 72% of TSLA profits and 100% of RIVN profits driven by sales of EVs, the likely delivs surprises tomorrow fueled by… pic.twitter.com/m9p9hB8FUO
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 1, 2026
Gene Munster Drops Tesla Prediction
Deepwater Asset Management investor Gene Munster, in a blog post on Wednesday, predicted Tesla would deliver 420,000 units in the second quarter of 2026.
“The key metric will be Model 3/Y deliveries,” Munster said, pointing to Tesla sunsetting the Premium Model S and X vehicles, which can translate to an 8% YoY surge in Model 3 and Y deliveries compared to 6% YoY in the first quarter.
Munster also said that the surging gas prices were a tailwind, but noted that the growth is coming in from “consumers slowly returning to EVs along with DOGE brand damage easing from a year ago.”
FSD’s Role
The investor also shared the importance of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, saying that the company’s management called “FSD the product and the vehicle the delivery mechanism,” adding that the shift was visible as FSD subscriptions hit 1.28 million in the first quarter.
“FSD is approved in the Netherlands, with EU-wide clearance expected in Q2 and China tracking to Q3, which management expects to lift adoption and pull vehicle demand,” Munster said, also pointing to the Cybercab testing conducted recently.
“What resets the multiple is FSD monetization and a credible path to unsupervised FSD, and both moved this quarter. Trending deliveries is just the gravy on top,” the investor said.
According to Benzinga Edge Rankings, Tesla provides satisfactory Momentum and Quality, while also providing a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.
Price Action: Tesla shares were down 0.45% to $423.38 during the after-hours session on Wednesday.
Read Also: Elon Musk Should 'Consider Selling EVs Again,' Says Ross Gerber As TSLA Stock Declines
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