Garrett Wilson is coming off the board in the first round of fantasy football drafts despite the uncertainty in the New York Jets offense. Is he worth the premium pick, or are fantasy managers bound to be disappointed with a first-round bust?
Here's why I am betting on the breakout.
The Case for a Garrett Wilson Breakout
New York averaged just 171 passing yards per game (30th in the NFL) in 2023 despite having the 11th-most pass attempts (601). That's... not good.
Here's who the Jets deployed at quarterback last season though: Zach Wilson, Trevor Semien, and Tim Boyle.
Let's look a little deeper under the hood.
Despite only posting three receiving touchdowns and 1,042 receiving yards due to poor quarterback play, Garrett Wilson owned the largest share of air yards for a team in the NFL (45.63%).
Wilson also saw the fourth-most targets in the NFL in this Nathaniel Hackett offense (168). However, only 103 of those were deemed "catchable." To show you how much these numbers matter, Cee Dee Lamb saw 181, while 143 were considered catchable. The Jets ranked 30th in adjusted completion rate and 27th in catchable target rate in 2023.
Wilson's 17 red zone targets ranked 12th in the NFL; however, that only resulted in three total touchdowns.
Wilson averaged 9.9 targets (seventh) and 61.3 receiving yards per game in 2023.
In his rookie season, Wilson logged 1104 receiving yards with 21 fewer targets and had four touchdowns. That season, he had the benefit of slightly better quarterback play, though Wilson has yet to see any consistency at the NFL level from his passer. Wilson, a first-round pick in 2022 out of Ohio, has the pedigree that suggests steady quarterback play is all he needs to become a true fantasy WR1.
It's hard to understate how much of an upgrade Wilson will be getting even with an aging Aaron Rodgers coming back from injury. Wilson is due for positive regression and is the clear alpha in this offense with no real competition.
Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon on the fourth snap with the Jets of the 2023 season. Rodgers, now 40 years old, spent all of 2023 rehabbing from the injury to his right Achilles. The good news for Rodgers is that the injury occurred to his lead/plant food, not his power/drive foot. If he loses any velocity this season, it is just as likely due to age as to injury.
Aaron Rodgers already had a late-career comeback with the Packers under coach Matt LaFleur and OC Nathaniel Hackett, winning consecutive NFL MVP awards in his 2020 and 2021 seasons. Then, in 2022, after losing WR Davante Adams to the Raiders and Hackett to the Broncos, Rodgers showed significant regression, throwing a career-high 12 interceptions and passing for a mere 26 touchdowns and a career-low 217 passing yards per game. It's worth noting that besides being without Hackett and Adams, Rodgers was playing with a broken thumb for most of the season.
It's hard to bet on an aging quarterback who just took a year off for injury and will be playing for a new team for the first time in his career at age 40. However, a four-time MVP with much to prove should be a boon for Garrett Wilson. Davante Adams was the number one fantasy receiver the last time Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers teamed up. That could be the ceiling for Wilson, as it's clear Hackett schemes for the alpha, and Rodgers has his favorites.
Aaron Rodgers has often peppered his number one receiver with 10+ targets per game, and he has a career 6.2% touchdown rate. That's higher than Patrick Mahomes (6.1%), Dak Prescott (5.2%), and Tom Brady (5.4%). Wilson has the potential to finish Top 3 at the position.
Betting Markets Back the Breakout
Anyone who follows my content knows I love to use the Sportsbook as a cheat code. Let's face it: Las Vegas is rarely wrong.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Garrett Wilson's receiving yards are set at 1125.5.
Here's what really drives home the point, though.
Garrett Wilson's touchdowns are set at 7.5, with the over juiced to -130.
Vegas is expecting plenty of positive regression for Wilson.
Here are a couple more things to consider when clicking the draft button
- Garrett Wilson played all 17 games in both his freshman and sophomore seasons and has no serious injury history.
- Wilson has a favorable schedule for the fantasy football playoffs: Weeks 14-16 for your fantasy playoffs. In those weeks, the Jets will face the Dolphins, Jaguars, and, in Week 16, the Los Angeles Rams.
Wilson should have far more than three touchdowns and 1,000 yards this season with catchable targets. He will have even more opportunity in Hackett's offense, where he has little to no competition for the alpha role. With more on-target passes and red zone looks, we could be looking at Aaron Rodgers' next Davante Adams.
Wilson and Puka Nacua are often coming off the board back-to-back. In that case, my choice is clear. I’d rather bet on Wilson having positive regression than bet that Nacua can repeat his stellar rookie season with Cooper Kupp back in the mix.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Garrett Wilson is a Must-Draft Breakout Candidate in 2024 Fantasy Football.
