India's gross domestic product growth is expected to moderate to around 6.5 per cent in FY27 as higher input costs, geopolitical tensions, and a weak monsoon bite, according to recent research reports by brokerage firms Dolat Capital and ICICI Global Markets.
The risk is less about supply availability and more about the landed costs of crude and inflation being passed to consumers. Dolat sees agriculture GVA slowing to 1.2 per cent YoY in FY27 if IMD's forecast of 90 per cent of LPA monsoon under El Nino plays out, while softer Middle East demand could hit exports. ICICI flags weaker exports, rising input costs and potential El Nino disruptions as key headwinds, though private consumption and capex should keep growth above 6 per cent.
