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Michael Bradshaw, Professor of Global Energy, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

Future of Russian gas looking bleak as Ukraine turns off taps and Europe eyes ending all imports

Russia’s contract for the transit of its gas across Ukraine expired on December 31 last year and Kyiv refused to consider a new deal. Ukraine’s decision was supported by the European Commission, even though the lost imports are equivalent to 5% of European demand.

It may have come as a surprise to many that, in the middle of a war between the two countries, gas had continued to flow. And although most pipeline gas from Russia to Europe had ceased, in 2024 Europe imported a record 21.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia – 19% of its LNG imports.

Newly published data from Spain reveals that Russia remained its second-biggest supplier of LNG, accounting for 21.3% of Spain’s LNG imports. The US remains the largest supplier of LNG to Europe, accounting for 48% of LNG supplied in 2024.

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