The future of fossil fuels – the leading source of global warming emissions – will come under scrutiny at UN climate negotiations taking place in Germany this Monday, as an Emirati oil chief is poised to step into the driver's seat.
As the world struggles to limit warming to 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, pressure is on the Unites Arab Emirates to arrive in Bonn this Monday with ambitious plans for its presidency of Dubai's December COP28 climate summit.
However the choice of Sultan al-Jaber – head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, ADNOC – to head COP28 has triggered calls from campaigners and lawmakers for him to step aside.
Al-Jaber favours the rapid development of renewable energy, but he has also focused on tackling carbon emissions – with controversial technologies to capture CO² – rather than reducing the use of fossil fuels, insisting they will have a key role in the energy transition.
The fact 1.5C is under threat should not derail us: Paris is working but too slowly. Techno-solutions & their lobbies are growing louder: a dangerous distraction
— Laurence Tubiana (@LaurenceTubiana) March 21, 2023
The @IEA is clear: we must, and we can, cut emissions by 7% each year.
Momentum is on our side. Let's go faster. 2/2
'End of an era' for fossil fuels
According to Laurence Tubiana, head of the European Climate Foundation, "The presidency needs to quickly show where its ambition lies: ramping up the renewables is part of it but recognising that won't be enough for this COP."
She added it was critical to "recognise that the fossil era is ending".
On Sunday, the UAE's Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, responsible for overseeing the preparations for COP28, met with US special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry, in a meeting attended by al-Jaber.
The three reviewed UAE-US initiatives including "The UAE-US Partnership for Accelerating Clean Energy (PACE), which will catalyse $100 billion in financing," according to a statement.
Last year's UN climate summit in Egypt reached a landmark deal to help vulnerable countries cope with climate-enhanced disasters, but failed to toughen up commitments to tackle emissions, despite backing from more than 80 countries.
The U.S.-UAE Partnership for Accelerating Clean Energy (PACE) is set to catalyze $100B in financing, investment, & other support and to deploy globally 100 gigawatts of clean energy by 2035 to advance the energy transition. Read more on the new framework.https://t.co/9NO2uFw6WW
— Department of State (@StateDept) November 3, 2022
Existential challenges ahead
Monday's meeting in the former West German capital will strive to close the gap on a past-due promise of $100 billion per year to help poorer countries make their economies greener and prepare for future climate shocks.
This comes following a UN report warning that the world may cross the 1.5° Celsius threshold within a decade and existing fossil fuel infrastructure could tip global temperatures over the edge if its carbon pollution is allowed to escape into the atmosphere.
Meanwhile, emissions – which must drop nearly 50 percent by 2030 to keep the Paris climate treaty goals within reach – continue to rise.
The 2015 Paris deal calls on countries to limit global warming "well below" two degrees Celsius, or preferably 1.5°C – a safer limit that would still have severe implications for millions.
However, it does not state how the world will meet that challenge.
Recent years have seen a crescendo of temperature records and climate-driven disasters worldwide, mostly in poorer regions least responsible for the problem.
