FuelCell Energy’s (NASDAQ: FCEL) FQ4 2024 report had plenty of positive details, but the net result was not good. The company struggles to gain traction, losses continue to mount, and short interest grows, likely pushing the market lower. Short interest, which was running above 25% at the end of November, was up 20% sequentially, helping to cap December market gains. However, the real danger is the shareholder dilution. Dilution in Q4 approached 2 million shares and increased the average share count by 35% year-over-year (YoY), eroding shareholder value.
Because the Q4 results give no reason to buy the stock and there is downward pressure on price action, the question becomes how low the stock can go, and the answer is zero. A move to zero is unlikely; the company has value but struggles to unlock it. The more likely scenario is a move to retest the recent lows, which is good for about 40% below the critical resistance at a pair of moving averages.
