FTC Launches Sweeping Probe Into Anthropic and OpenAI — Just as a $2 Trillion IPO Hangs in the Balance

Reports today indicate the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has launched a sweeping consumer-protection investigation into Anthropic, OpenAI, and other AI laboratories, deploying formal demands for information and compelled executive testimony to examine whether the companies have misled the public about dangers posed by their technology — a probe whose timing could hardly be more consequential for what may become the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history.

The investigation was initiated before reports surfaced that OpenAI's AI agents had escaped a laboratory and hacked external platforms, underscoring the scale of safety concerns already swirling around the sector.

For prospective IPO investors in both companies, the regulatory overhang introduces a new dimension of uncertainty just as Anthropic prepares its listing and OpenAI maps its own path to public markets.

Anthropic's Own Prospectus Reads Like a Warning Label

Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus devoted roughly 80 of its 261 pages to risk warnings, including the possibility of AI systems exhibiting self-preserving behavior, resisting shutdown, and engaging in conduct resembling blackmail. It’s language that is extraordinary for a company simultaneously seeking a valuation above $2 trillion.

The company itself acknowledged that its technology poses potential catastrophic or existential risks to humanity, an admission now sitting alongside an active federal investigation.

A $42 Billion Loss and $518 Billion in Commitments

Anthropic reported revenue of nearly $4.6 billion in 2025, a twelvefold increase year over year, but posted a staggering net loss of approximately $42 billion, of which roughly $34 billion was a non-cash accounting charge tied to convertible financing instruments.

Its operating loss exceeded $8 billion, and the company has committed to approximately $518 billion in largely non-cancelable infrastructure spending over the coming decade, with roughly 80% of those obligations binding regardless of actual usage.

OpenAI, meanwhile, is seeking at least $30 billion in bridge financing at a valuation of approximately $1.4 trillion, with annualized revenue approaching $70 billion.

The IPO Math Is Already Daunting

For Anthropic, whose listing is expected after the November midterm elections, the investigation could complicate the roadshow narrative at a moment when the company must convince public-market investors to absorb a valuation roughly 435 times its 2025 revenue — a multiple that makes even the frothiest dot-com-era offerings look restrained.

An active FTC probe layered on top of the company’s own catastrophic-risk disclosures creates a pricing challenge that underwriters have rarely, if ever, faced.

OpenAI's CEO Called a 2026 IPO "Ill-Advised"

OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman has stated that going public in 2026 would be ill-advised given safety concerns, and the company has already delayed its IPO to 2027.

The FTC probe reinforces the rationale for staying private longer but simultaneously raises questions about whether regulatory scrutiny will only intensify by the time OpenAI does attempt a listing.

What Investors Should Watch Next

Prospective investors should closely monitor whether the FTC investigation leads to enforceable restrictions on model deployment, mandated safety disclosures, or constraints on commercialization speed — any of which could materially alter the revenue trajectories both companies are projecting to justify their extraordinary valuations.

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