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Liverpool Echo
Liverpool Echo
Sport
Dave Powell

FSG may postpone exit strategy as Liverpool continue to deliver success

When it comes to seeing a return on investment there are few success stories in football in recent times like that of Fenway Sports Group at Liverpool.

Having won a High Court battle to wrestle ownership of the Reds away from the ruinous regime of Tom Hicks and George Gillett back in October 2010 for a sum of around £330m, the valuation of the club has soared ever since, something that shows now sign of abating any time soon.

Hicks famously described the sale as an "epic swindle", but for a football club with mounting debts and sailing dangerously close to falling into administration, something that seems unthinkable nowadays, the change of stewardship simply had to happen, with even board members at the time knowing that.

That £330m price tag for the Reds 12 years ago has ballooned in value, the most recent valuation by US financial analysts at Forbes magazine pegging the Anfield club with a valuation of $4.45bn (£3.74bn) in their annual list at the end of May. The growth of Liverpool as a business stands at 1,033 per cent over the past 12 years from its original purchase price.

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Not always universally popular, FSG have pretty much done what Liverpool chairman Tom Werner said they would when they arrived on Merseyside, stating that they would "under promise and over deliver".

Investment into improving the playing squad has been driven by the revenues that the club as a business generates, something that flies in the face of how the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City managed to engineer their way to the top of the footballing pyramid. Player trading improved through investment into data and analytics within the club, something FSG supremo John Henry was keen to introduce right away, while hiring the right people, most notably current boss Jurgen Klopp helped to deliver the kind of on-pitch success that delivers the prize money to grow revenues. That success also helps the brand grow and helps bring on board new commercial partners and before long it is a well-oiled machine.

Football club valuations have been in focus of late after a number of European teams came under new ownership, while Premier League sides like Everton have been the subject of takeover interest from the US.

At present the value of everything is going up. From the global media rights of the Premier League to player wages, team valuations are following the trend of continual growth, although that is something that can't go on forever, although it is something that shows little sign of slowing any time soon.

Speaking to Bloomberg earlier this year, Gerry Cardinale, whose RedBird Capital Partners investment firm own 11 per cent of FSG as well as a controlling stake in AC Milan, said: "The valuation discussion is complicated. There isn't a great amount of rigour to it. There is a little bit of LIFO (last in, first out) to it, as in you look at the last trade and you put a mark-up on it.

"What is alluring there, and deceptive, is that people have become used to everything always going up in sports. That's anti-Darwinian, that's not possible. Now, the slope of that curve may change, but for the forseeable future everything keeps going up."

It is that expected continuation in the rise of football club valuations and the belief that there are untapped revenue streams to mine to continue to support growth on and off the field that is what FSG will be focusing on when it comes to just how long their tenure at Liverpool is.

There have been reports over the past 12 months of a £3bn bid for the club being rejected out of hand, while FSG stock among fans was low back in April of last year when they were one of the main agitators behind the European Super League plot before backing down and apologising in the face of strong fan pressure.

There seemed no way back in the days that followed the ESL fallout, but thanks to some contrition, moves to ensure the ESL doesn't happen again through the creation of a Supporters' Board, success on the pitch and some welcome player investment in the likes of Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez, the tide does appear to have turned and FSG's longer term plan remains on track, a plan where Liverpool are the most valuable jewel in a crown that also includes the Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Penguins and RFK Racing.

Dr Dan Plumley, a football finance expert and senior lecturer in sport finance at Sheffield Hallam University, has been working with colleague Dr Rob Wilson on a model that seeks to find how 'investable' some football clubs are using a range of metrics.

Dr Plumley told the ECHO: "FSG have always operated differently to many. Where the likes of the Glazers at Manchester United have taken dividends out of the club without investing into both team and infrastructure and not having much of a strategy, FSG have invested in the stadium to grow revenues and have implemented a strategy for success without taking dividends out for themselves, the value for them lies in when they eventually sell the team.

"There will be an exit plan, I'm sure. It might be £5bn or £6bn, maybe more. There will be a point at which they think that they can no longer find growth opportunities with the club and where valuations start to come down and media rights values start to decline. That, though, seems a long while off.

"While the team is winning, success is regular, prize money and media rights are rising and all is well then they aren't going to want to go anywhere. This has always been a long-term project for them and it is one that, after a slow start looking at it from the outside, has turned into something incredibly successful.

"FSG have been good at identifying the parts of the club that needed investment to help bring up revenues to support team building. It has been the best example of how to run a successful club on and off the pitch in the Premier League."

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