It was the silence in the House of Commons – more than the words spoken from the dispatch box – that captured the magnitude of the moment, and the dramatic shift of political mood, on Thursday evening.
Boris Johnson had been woken at 4.10am that morning to be told Vladimir Putin’s troops had crossed the border into Ukraine. It was what military intelligence had prepared him to expect.
But Putin’s chilling warning that any resistance would bring consequences “never seen in history” brought home the threat not just to Ukraine as a sovereign nation but to peace in Europe and the entire world.
By 4.30am, the prime minister was up and on the phone from Downing Street to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, offering solidarity and support.
An aide summed up Johnson’s mood as “motivated, anxious, moved and energetic”. He addressed the British people at noon before turning again to a reinforced package of sanctions against Moscow. As he did so he seized on a new three-word slogan – “Putin must fail” – which he would use repeatedly at cabinet that evening.
At Westminster, however, by mid-morning, MPs of all parties were wandering around parliament, disorientated and fearful.
It was just weeks since the Tory party had been consumed by talk of Johnson being subjected to a vote of confidence over the “partygate” affair as opposition MPs and leaders accused him of being a serial rule-breaker and liar unfit to occupy Downing Street.
Every appearance by the prime minister in the Commons for weeks before had turned the chamber into a bear pit. To underline the descent of British politics, a week ago No 10 confirmed the prime minister had completed and returned a questionnaire he had been sent by Scotland Yard about gatherings in Downing Street that appeared to have taken place in breach of lockdown rules.
Despite it all, Johnson had been determined to soldier on and turn things round on the domestic front. On Monday, he announced the end of all remaining Covid-19 restrictions in England, saying it was time to take the country “back towards normality”.
But when he rose to address MPs at 5pm on Thursday, there was nothing normal – at least compared with recent times – about the House of Commons or British politics.
The chamber was packed but eerily quiet as hundreds of MPs from different parties sat motionless. Within 15 minutes, it was clear that unseemly political arguments of recent times had been subsumed and rendered irrelevant – at least for the time being.
One Tory MP and former minister, himself a critic of the prime minister who had wanted him to quit over partygate until a few days ago, said afterwards: “The enormity of what has happened in Ukraine has transcended party politics. There was a sense of seriousness and shared endeavour that just took over from everything.”
The prime minister was heard in respectful silence. So, too, was the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, and –more remarkably – the Scottish National party’s Ian Blackford, whose every utterance is normally met with jeers from opponents.
Johnson told MPs that Putin was “hurling the might of his military machine against a free and peaceful neighbour in breach of his own explicit pledge and every principle of civilised behaviour between states”.
To everyone who made the connection, this was rule-breaking on an entirely different scale from that which Westminster had recently obsessed about. “Talking about parties any more would be ridiculous. It would sound utterly trivial,” remarked a senior Labour MP.
When the Labour leader responded to Johnson’s speech announcing new sanctions, he avoided any hint of criticism. Instead he sought joint occupation of the high ground alongside the prime minister, declaring that “all of us who believe in democracy over dictatorship, in the rule of law over the reign of terror and in freedom over the jackboot of tyranny must unite and take a stand”. For Starmer, there was nothing to be gained from scoring political points against Johnson.
Rather, by playing the patriotic, pro-Nato, anti-Putin cards, any gain there was lay in distancing himself from his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, and those on the left of the party associated with the Stop the War movement.
Unity prevailed across the chamber. Starmer said that if the prime minister legislated with the intention of “cracking open the shell companies” in which “Putin and his fellow bandits” had hidden money stolen from the Russian people, then Labour would support him. As he did so, Johnson looked up and nodded his agreement.
As one Labour frontbencher put it, these were moments when domestic politics was suspended and the beneficiary, in narrow, short-term political terms, was clearly Johnson. “What is happening is that we are entering a period of quasi-national government which we had early on in the pandemic. That benefits the incumbent and makes it difficult for the opposition to do what we are here to do, which is to show up points of difference with the government.”
In Downing Street, insiders say the mood is transformed from three weeks ago. Then there was a sense of chaos and decay as advisers quit and Tory MPs threatened to topple Johnson. Now, with a new team in place and a new enemy, at least there is a clear focus and an emerging strategy.
Just as Margaret Thatcher revived her flagging fortunes in 1982 by going to war with Argentina in the Falklands, boosting her poll ratings by 10 points as a result, Johnson and his allies can see opportunities to recharge and rescue his leadership from what appeared to be impending disaster, off the back of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This weekend, Johnson’s allies are pointing out, at every opportunity, that it is the prime minister who is pressing the case hardest for Russia to be cut out of the international payments system Swift, as demanded by Kyiv.
They say other G7 and world leaders, particularly Germany, are holding out against the move, fearing the economic and other consequences of taking such draconian action against Putin and his regime.
This weekend Johnson is hitting the phones from Chequers, making the case again to fellow leaders and hoping to portray himself soon as a victor on the world stage in a key battle over sanctions.
In the same breath, Johnson’s aides point out that he wants to use the crisis to demonstrate that the UK can exert more influence – not less – in foreign affairs now it is outside the EU, a view not widely shared in the Foreign Office.
In addition, he sees a chance to put in action a plan to ensure that the UK moves faster in reducing reliance on Russian and other foreign supplies of energy by investing ever more heavily in renewables at home.
But if some clear strategic lines are emerging from Downing Street, Tory MPs know an awful lot will need to go right for Johnson over the coming, dangerous months for him to repeat Thatcher’s revival.
Whatever happens with Russia and Ukraine, whether the crisis escalates or not, the police will, some time in the next few weeks, issue the findings of their inquiries into partygate, which could see the prime minister fined for attending a string of events that breached Covid rules.
Then the full report by the senior civil servant Sue Gray will be published, which could further criticise the prime minister. Much could come down to timing.
As one former Tory minister said: “Downing Street will be praying that the reports come as soon as possible before the focus goes off Ukraine. I think that if they come in the next couple of weeks, he’s safe. No party would change their leader with this going on.”
Another Tory MP warned that the cost of living crisis was certain to worsen as a result of a prolonged conflict – as energy bills rise still higher – with adverse effects on the longer-term popularity of the Johnson government.
“There are a lot of booby-traps to come,” he said. “We have tax rises in April, and energy prices soaring. All as we approach the May local elections. He is by no means out of the woods.”
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer shows Johnson remains deeply unpopular and widely distrusted. Asked whether, in the light of events in Ukraine, they thought he could be “trusted to take big decisions” just 25% said he could be, while 56% said he could not. Just 24% thought he was a strong leader, while 53% did not; and 30% believed he could stand up for Britain abroad, while 47% did not.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought about a sudden transformation – a ceasefire - in British politics and eased the immediate domestic crisis for Johnson, at least for now.
But it has also created a more dangerous world, one in which global economic problems will worsen and prices will rise faster and further, only adding to the problems and risks for democratically elected leaders everywhere, particularly ones who already lack much public support – such as the current occupant of No 10.
