There are just a few weeks left until President-elect Donald Trump takes office, in which he has promised to start mass deportations across the country right away. While there are still many questions left unanswered about if, and how, these operations will actually be carried out, experts and migrants are bracing for potential effects of ejecting millions of migrants in different territories across the country. But when it comes to mass deportations and their effects, not all cities and states are created equal.
An estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants lived in the U.S. as of 2022, which represented about 3.3.% of the overall population, according to the Department of Homeland Security. These are noncitizens who entered the country without permission, overstayed the period of their lawful admission, or otherwise violated the terms of their admission.
This group is highly concentrated in key areas, usually ones who have provided them with protection or employment opportunities. DHS estimates that in 2022, the 10 states with the largest unauthorized immigrant populations accounted for 72% of all such migrants in the U.S. Experts warn these territories may be the ones seeing the strongest effects if mass deportations are enacted.
"[Mass deportations] policies could reach a large and geographically diverse range of places, and dramatically disrupt local businesses, schools, public safety agencies, and community institutions," said Alan Berube, a Nonresident Senior fellow at Brookings Institute.
Berube's recent analysis at Brookings suggests that among the most affected areas will be: major immigrant gateway states (California, Texas, Florida, New York and Illinois) and their large cities and counties; newer gateway states and cities in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast; and smaller agricultural metro areas throughout the country.
A Closer Look at Some of the Immigration Hubs in the U.S.
Among the top 10 of states with most unauthorized migrants are California and Texas, which have more than 2 million of such people. Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and New York house between 400,000 and 600,000 each. North Carolina, Georgia and Washington also number the top 10, with around 360,000 and 340,000 each. Finishing the top states is Arizona, with around 290,000 unauthorized migrants.
Most people in these leading states live in urban areas, hence, their immigrant populations are also highly urbanized. An analysis from the Migration Policy Institute finds that in 2015-2019, 34 large urban counties— which together contained one-quarter of total U.S. population— accounted for roughly half of the estimated unauthorized migrant population in the country.
Among those counties are Los Angeles County, Calif.; Harris County, Texas; Dallas County, Texas; Cook County, Ill.; Orange County, Calif.; Queens County, N.Y.; Maricopa County, Ariz.; Miami Dade-Monroe Counties, Fla.; Boston-Cambridge-Quincy Counties, Mass.; and San Diego County, Calif.
The unauthorized migrant population is more likely to be of working age and employed than the population overall, so their share of the local workforce in these counties tends to be higher.
"With large numbers of unauthorized immigrants comprising a significant share of local workers, these counties could experience among the most acute local demographic and economic impacts of mass deportation actions by the Trump administration," Berube said.
What Can Lawmakers Do?
Berube warns that it remains unclear whether Trump's mass deportation plans will actually be enacted, as some practical realities, like access to money, manpower, and infrastructure, will likely impede their actualization. However, if the GOP's rhetoric is turned into implementation, mass removals could cause significant disruptions in local labor markets, schools, businesses, governments, and community institutions. So, local leaders should be prepared to take action.
For one, local officials should understand the nature of their law enforcement agencies with federal immigration enforcement, the analysis suggests. Some major cities, like Los Angeles, have adopted laws that highly limit the scope in which local law enforcement can cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). This is a process many Democratic-led cities and states have already introduced.
Also, local officials need to prepare the immigrant communities with legal and policy information and assistance in case these deportation operations are implemented, Brookings suggests. For instance, most immigrants in removal proceedings are afforded hearings before an immigration judge, but they frequently lack access to legal counsel, which greatly affects their chances of success in the proceedings. Some cities, like Seattle and Chicago, have responded by appropriating public funding for immigration legal services.
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