The first party conference after a defeat generally tends to be a cross between a wake, an inquest, and a beauty contest for those who believe they have the answers to what went wrong. The Conservatives’ gathering in Birmingham is set to be no different – but with a particular emphasis on the third.
So what is in store from Sunday for the embattled party faithful and remaining MPs, plus sections of the media and lobbying industry who decide it’s worth going along for a look?
Four become two
The central drama in Birmingham – for some, the only story in town – is the way it is being largely staged as an opportunity for Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat to bat their ideological eyelashes and show some policy leg to party members.
It will be MPs who decide early next month which two will make the final ballot of members, but a strong showing could boost someone’s chances, while a major gaffe could be fatal.
On the main stage, the candidates are split into pairs for cosy-sounding but potentially perilous “meet our candidates” Q&A sessions with members on Monday and Tuesday, while on Wednesday they will all deliver speeches. In the meantime, they will do the rounds of fringe events and media interviews. It is a punishing process, and one Tory chiefs say is very much intended to test them. Let the fun begin.
What went wrong?
Outsiders might say there is remarkably little of this given the way the party plummeted from an 80-seat majority in 2019 to just 121 seats.
There are fringe events to examine everything from internal organisation to why the Tories have been more or less abandoned by young voters, but nothing that necessarily suggests a party acknowledging the scale of the task it faces.
In part, this is about timing. The interim chair, Richard Fuller, will announce details of a review of the party’s processes, but any inquest will mainly have to wait for the new leader, who will not be announced before 2 November.
Why so long?
Speaking of the 2 November end to the leadership contest, expect at least some gripes about the timetable. This is so extended that Rishi Sunak, still officially in charge but only due to be in Birmingham on Sunday, and not even scheduled to make a speech, will have to lead the response to a potentially pivotal budget on 30 October.
The interim nature has brought other consequences, not least an expected dearth of corporate lobbyists, most of whom are staying at home rather than jostling for a coffee with a shadow minister who most likely won’t be in the same job, or any job, come November.
This pervading ennui is likely to see many MPs stay away, not to mention lots of activists. The Labour conference in Liverpool last week was at times so packed that movement between venues slowed to a shuffle. Birmingham could feel quite different.
The ideological direction
If it is a political truism that great political careers are often forged out of terrible defeats, the same can the case for ideological shifts, albeit often only after a false start. From 1979 came New Labour; out of 1997 came David Cameron’s slightly softer Conservatism; 2019 brought Keir Starmer. So what comes now?
The four leadership contenders seem mainly convinced that what their party needs is a further push to the right in hot pursuit of voters tempted by Reform UK, with a particular focus on reducing migration and, in some cases, exit from the European convention on human rights.
Is this the correct way forward for the Tories, or a cul de sac? Will the eventual winner go down in history as a Blair or a Cameron, or a Michael Howard or Jeremy Corbyn? Time will tell – but for now, everyone will have an opinion.
