Mandatory Credit: Photo by Tayfun Salci/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock (13709862y) Ambulance workers are seen at picket line outside London Ambulance Service as thousands of Unison and GMB union members go on strike in UK. Ambulance Staff Strike In The UK, London, England, United Kingdom - 11 Jan 2023 Photograph: Tayfun Salcı/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock
Good morning.
In a bid to restate the Conservative party’s reputation as the party of “fiscal responsibility” and “economic competence”, the government took a hardline position last year against pay rises for public sector workers despite high inflation rates and worsening working conditions. Instead of negotiating with unions, ministers have gone the other way, ushering in new anti-strike legislation to settle the resulting industrial disputes that have, at points, ground the country to a halt.
This has only inflamed the situation, with union leaders stating that they will challenge the legislation in court and continue to exercise their right to strike. The back and forth seems endless, and with every passing moment, the chances that the public assign this period of turmoil and economic hardship to the Tories’ failures increases. So the question is, who will relent? I spoke to Guardian political correspondent Peter Walker about whether the government is finally backing down. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Energy | Average annual energy bills are expected to dip below £2,500 from July because of a drop in wholesale gas prices that has alleviated some of the pressure on households across the country.
Police | Home Office figures have shown that 90 police officers and staff were found guilty of crimes, including for sexual offences, corruption and violence last year. The total number for convicted officers could be higher as these figures only include cases that came from a complaint, conduct matter or recordable conduct matter.
Cybercrime | The ransomeware attack that has hit Royal Mail has severely disrupted its overseas deliveries. The postal service received a ransom note purportedly to be from LockBit, a hacker group that is thought to have links to Russia, who have threatened to publish the stolen data online.
Lisa Marie Presley | Singer and only child of Elvis and Priscilla Presley, Lisa-Marie, has died at the age of 54. She was rushed to hospital from her home in Calabasas, California, after a reported cardiac arrest on Thursday.
Oil | A new study has found that Exxon, one of the world’s largest oil companies, “predicted global warming correctly and skilfully” in the 1970s and then spent decades downplaying the risk in order to protect its core business.
In depth: ‘The worst thing a government can have is a reputation for the country falling apart around them’
“The best way to stop strikes, say the unions, is to do it before the ballots go out. Do it early, because that’s before the battle lines get drawn,” Peter says. But in that moment, the government was tearing itself apart, jumping from leader to leader, scandal to scandal, too preoccupied in its own mess to see the storm that was brewing.
Six months later, the country seems to be stuck in deadlock as public sector workers declare that they have had enough and walk out en masse. So where are negotiations at now?
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Rail disruptions
Eight months of action, which have cost rail companies hundreds of millions of pounds in lost revenue and had huge impacts on the economy more broadly, could be coming to an end according to Network Rail. Earlier this week at a committee hearing, they said the chances of a settlement with the rail unions were “seven out of 10”, as they just need 2,000 more members to accept a deal worth 9% over two years, with guarantees on jobs and other benefits.
However, RMT leader Mick Lynch said on Wednesday a deal is “a long way” off – and accused the government of sabotaging the negotiations before Christmas. Union bosses have said that they are willing to keep this fight going and they are in it for the “long haul”, should the government not meet their demands. They dismissed the offer as a 20% real-terms pay cut when inflation, many years without a pay rise and declining working conditions were all factored in. Still, there are glimmers of hope: yesterday it was reported that the RMT and TSSA agreed to work jointly with train operators towards “a revised pay off”. Luke Chester, the organising director at the TSSA union, said the discussions were “interesting” and “detailed” – a much more positive development from just two days prior.
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NHS strikes
For months, the government has had little else but tough talk for health unions. Steve Barclay, the health secretary, has been accused of “belligerence” and “holding the country to ransom” because of his exceedingly rigid attitude to pay. In December, the government refused to negotiate with nurses on pay to prevent strikes, insisting that its hands are tied as they cannot go beyond what the NHS pay review body has recommended for the 2022/23 year. But as time wore on, this position has become increasingly impractical for the government, as more and more workers agree to join the picket lines and front pages continue to be dominated by shocking images overlaid with headlines like “500 deaths a week” and “emergency care meltdown”.
So it was promising when Barclay finally offered to come to the table. That hope was, however, short lived and talks with health unions quickly broke down. The government floated the idea of a one-off payment, which was quickly dismissed by unions as it would not safeguard future pay. “It’s also not even clear if the Treasury would agree to this – Steve Barclay seems to be saying we could potentially do that. But the Treasury is saying they’ve not had any talks about it,” Peter says.
The talks themselves seemed to do little else but cause further anger. Now, not only are strikes set to go ahead, 14 unions representing more than one million NHS staff said that they would not cooperate with the pay review body until the government settles this year’s dispute.
It does however look like the government is starting to buckle under the pressure, despite their long-held intransigence. Senior sources have told the Guardian that Barclay has privately conceded he will have to increase his pay offer to NHS staff – but the Treasury has made clear that the money will have to come from within the existing health budget, meaning there could be further cuts to the already struggling health service, further aggravating the already poor working conditions.
“There’s still a lot of hurdles to overcome. It’s really not clear where we are,” says Peter.
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Education problems
One major teaching union, NASUWT, had their strike ballots returned, with an overwhelming 88.5% of members supporting the move. However, the turnout was just 42%, below the legal threshold for a strike. A ballot by the NAHT, representing headteachers and school leaders in England and Wales, has yet to report back the results. The largest education union, the NEU, will close its ballots today and declare the results on Monday. The battle lines for this fight are still unclear.
The prediction is that union members will vote for the strike – an initial ballot in October found that 86% of the NEU’s members would be willing to take strike action to demand a pay rise. If this happens, widespread state school closures are expected. However, with NASUWT failing to get out the vote, the unanimity hoped for by the unions will not be there.
The joint general secretaries of the NEU, Mary Bousted and Kevin Courtney, have said that there has been “no concrete progress” made in the talks with the government – but that does not necessarily mean all is lost. “While some of the health unions have said they’re not even going to engage in submitting evidence to the pay review bodies, the education unions have said they are going to do that, indicating that they’re perhaps a bit more engaged with the government,” Peter says – and are therefore more likely to be open in negotiations.
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No way out?
Whichever way these strikes go, it’s clear they have become politically toxic for the government: “One of the worst things that government can have is a reputation for the country falling apart around them,” Peter says. “Ongoing strikes reinforce the sense that this is a country where nothing works, and ultimately people will almost certainly blame the government for that.”
What else we’ve been reading
The shroud of shame and secrecy that surrounds mental health and menopause is gradually being chipped away at, and Gaby Hinsliff talks to women who have suffered and the doctors trying to change the “put up and shut up” attitude the medical profession has employed for so long. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
If you’re sick of all things royal then do skip this but, if you’re not, Mark Lawson has done those of us who can’t get enough of the drama a massive favour and ranked Prince Harry’s TV interviews this week. Is he the next James Corden? I really hope not, we don’t need another. Nimo
Joe Stone’s abiding love for the Real Housewives franchise shines through in this piece reflecting on the success of what he calls “football for gays; a fast track to intimacy between men with little else in common”. Toby
There’s truly nothing worse than food poisoning while on holiday, so I had massive sympathy when reading Brie Veron’s Bad Trip story where a two-hour bus ride turned into a 16-hour nightmare. Nimo
11,000 of our amazing readers have already contributed to the Guardian’s 2022 charity appeal, raising over £1.3m for grassroots organisations helping those struggling with the cost of living crisis; editor Katharine Viner asks if a final surge can take the campaign over the £1.5m mark in its final days. Toby
Sport
Football | Chelsea’s loss to Fulham for the first time in 17 years will pile more pressure on ailing manager Graham Potter. The 2-1 result means Chelsea has now lost seven of their last ten games and sit in 10th place in the Premier League table.
Rugby | While none have said so publicly, Bill Sweeney, the Rugby Football Union CEO, has claimed that England players have told him privately that they felt it was the “right decision” to sack Eddie Jones as head coach just nine months before the World Cup.
Football | Liverpool and England’s Gilly Flaherty has said that she is retiring from football, aged 31, for family reasons. Flaherty is the holder of the Women’s Super League appearance record, making 177 appearances for Arsenal, Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool, and winning the the Women’s Super League four times.
The front pages
A mixed bag of stories on Friday’s front pages: the Guardian leads with “Barclay privately admits he must increase pay offer to NHS workers”. The Financial Times reports “Biden faces counsel probe into sensitive files found at home and office”.
The Mirror has an exclusive with “Heroes’ cancer torment”, saying that some firefighters at the Grenfell tower blaze have since been diagnosed with cancer. The Telegraph headlines “Net zero plan to ban gas boilers in a decade”, while the i leads with “34 homeless children die in England in three years”.
The Times has the latest on new NHS guidelines: “Millions more offered chance to take statins”. The Mail says “Hand out statins on demand, doctors are told”.
Finally the Sun reports on comments from the Princess of Wales under the headline, “Talking therapies don’t work for everyone”. The paper asks: “Who could Kate possibly be referring to?”
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
The US and the Holocaust (BBC iPlayer)
Ken Burns’s three-part series (co-directed with longtime collaborators Lynn Novick and Sarah Botstein) tells the story of an increasingly hardline approach to immigration in the early 20th century, and suggests that Hitler found inspiration in the US. The accounts given by historians are thought-provoking and never sugar-coated or simplified, but it is the memories of survivors that stick in the mind. Rebecca Nicholson
Music
Clavish – Rap Game Awful
Viral sensation Cian Wright has a worldview that is strikingly drawn and bleak: life on the streets is an endless, numbing round of cheffings and nittys and opps getting splashed, “anxiety through the roof”. His debut mixtape is frequently well done but preposterously long: its 28 tracks last an hour and a half. Clavish is abundantly talented – but abundance can be a problem. Alexis Petridis
Film
Tár
A second viewing has swept away – with hurricane force – the obtuse worries I had about Todd Field’s entirely outrageous, delirious and sensual psychodrama starring Cate Blanchett as Lydia Tár (above), the orchestra conductor starting to unravel and unhinge. I had misgivings then about the climactic element of melodrama – which I now see as a deliberate and brilliant stab of dissonance. Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
Rocky Flintstone Unleashed
The author of the erotic My Dad Wrote a Porno stories might only have spoken publicly for the first time a few weeks ago in the show’s final episode, but he’s making up for lost time. This new series sees him reading new Belinda-based ribald shenanigans in daily, 10-minute episodes. Alexi Duggins
Today in Focus
Jailed for life for stealing $14
In California, if a person commits two felonies that are classed as ‘serious’ or ‘violent’, and then go on to commit any other crime, no matter how small, they will be given a life sentence. In theory, it would keep the most dangerous offenders away from society, but in practice it has served to swell California’s prison system, with tens of thousands of people locked up for life for committing petty crimes. Just like David Coulson who tells the Guardian’s Sam Levin how he ended up in jail after stealing just $14.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Sandie Wood’s funeral is one that attendees will surely think of fondly. At the 65-year-old’s sendoff in Bristol, a dance troupe performed a flashmob to Another One Bites the Dust by Queen, as per Wood’s wish that the day be memorable. The words “Going out in style” were also written on Wood’s coffin, which was pink.
Her friend Sam Ryalls, said: “She wanted everyone to remember her funeral but not for sad reasons. She left the world as she lived it and that was being herself.” Claire Phipps, one of the dancers who performed, described it as “scary, but a memory that we’ll never forget.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Also, try out the Guardian’s new daily word game, Wordiply. Until Monday.
