Good morning. After the long winter months during which the frontlines in Ukraine remained largely frozen, one great question is hanging over the war: now that the conditions have changed, when will Kyiv order the counteroffensive that it views as crucial to driving the Russians out?
You will have seen that term, counteroffensive, in countless news stories over the last few weeks. But nobody knows exactly what it means. That is deliberate: Ukraine’s greatest success of the war so far came when it successfully fooled Moscow into thinking its September attack would come in the south, and not in the northern Kharkiv region. Surprises over timing and location are the most powerful tool at Ukraine’s disposal as it attempts to regain lost territory, break Russian supply lines, and bolster western support for the long war that likely lies ahead. But it is also extremely difficult to maintain.
