Good morning. There are no problems in Russia – and even if there are, Vladimir Putin is the only man who can fix them. That was the overwhelming message of Putin’s four hour press conference yesterday, when the traditionally annual event returned for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine.
If the tenor of the pre-vetted questions from the Russian media and public was overwhelmingly supportive of the “special military operation”, that is hardly surprising. But the fact that the event took place at all is an indication that Putin is feeling stronger and more secure than at any point since the war began. On the war, the economy, and his prospects for another six-year term in office, Putin’s confidence was unmistakable – and a sign of his growing belief that he can outlast Ukraine’s western allies. That feeling may have been bolstered this morning when his Hungarian ally Viktor Orban blocked £43bn in new EU aid for Ukraine hours after an agreement to open talks on EU accession.
Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s Russia correspondent Andrew Roth, runs you through it, and will take considerably less than four hours to get through. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Social media | Rishi Sunak is considering limiting social media access for teenagers under the age of 16 to try to protect them from online harm, with reports suggesting a potential ban is on the cards. A government spokesperson played down the prospects of an absolute ban but acknowledged that discussions were underway.
Germany | Four people have been arrested in Germany and the Netherlands on suspicion of being part of a cross-border Hamas terrorism plot that German federal prosecutors said aimed to target Jewish institutions in Europe.
UK news | A British boy who has not been seen by his legal guardian since he went missing on a family holiday to Spain in 2017 has been found in France. Alex Batty, from Oldham, was 11 when he was allegedly abducted by his mother, Melanie Batty, and grandfather, David Batty.
Disability | Rights campaigners have reacted with anger to the news that Downing Street will not appoint a new dedicated minister for disabled people, describing it as an “appalling and retrograde move”. The brief would instead be taken on by another minister along with their existing commitments, the government said.
Television | After almost 25 years playing Larry David, Larry David has announced that his award-winning comedy Curb Your Enthusiasm is ending with the next season. David said he would now become “the thoughtful, kind, caring, considerate human being I was until I got derailed by portraying this malignant character”.
In depth: ‘The event tended towards the turbo-patriot side’
For years, Vladimir Putin has held an annual phone-in event, called Direct Line, as well as a very long press conference with pre-approved questions from national and international media. Last year, amid repeated setbacks in Ukraine, both events were cancelled; this year, they returned as a combined set piece.
The programme, carried live by all major Russian TV channels, was entitled “Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin”. The vast majority of the 600 journalists present were from Russian outlets. (One of the dozen international reporters present asked about two US detainees, the journalist Evan Gershkovich and corporate executive Paul Whelan, prompting Putin to say that a deal for their release remained possible.)
There were questions beamed in from soldiers at the front, one from a guy in military dress surrounded by farm animals, and an AI avatar of Putin himself; nonetheless, Andrew Roth said, “this certainly wasn’t the craziest or the campest it’s been. It was actually unremarkable to a considerable degree, and I think that’s the point – to project normalcy.”
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The war | ‘There will be peace when we achieve our goals’
For a sense of how firmly the event evoked the righteousness of the Russian cause in Ukraine, consider a contribution highlighted by the FT’s Max Seddon, from a group from the Russian-occupied city of Luhansk: “We came here without any questions, because we don’t have any! We just wanted to say thank you for making Luhansk part of the Russian Federation!”
In general, the event leaned into discussion of the war, particularly in questions from the public. More substantive than the praise from Luhansk was Putin’s response to a question about how the war might end. “There will be peace when we achieve our goals,” he said. “They haven’t changed. Denazification of Ukraine, the demilitarisation of Ukraine.”
But, Andrew pointed out, they have changed. “That language is from the most bullish period at the beginning of the war. The Russians moved away from it when things weren’t going so well and suggested they might be willing to talk. So using those phrases now felt like a barometer of confidence.”
There was one area where objections were allowed to creep in: a number of soldiers and their families asked about benefits for those who have fought in Ukraine. “That’s a way to try to release pressure a little bit – to refer to something that feels like a problem without giving the microphone to someone who can do damage,” Andrew said. “It’s an old idea in Russia of good tsar, bad boyars [noblemen] – our problems are due to the aristocracy, but the tsar is with us. It bolsters his cult of personality. But they keep it to things that can be solved.”
The only blip in the narrative: questions that had been submitted and were projected on the walls of the studio had not been as thoroughly vetted as those that were put to Putin. One asked: “When will the war end? When will there be peace in the skies? When will peace talks begin?”
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The economy | Boost from military spending behind confident tone
“He was comfortable talking about the economy,” Andrew said. “He likes to show that he knows what’s going on, down to the price of eggs [which he apologised to a pensioner about]. Any problems are blamed on western sanctions. And in general, there has been such an injection of cash that the economy is more in danger of overheating than collapsing.”
Putin said that the stable growth of the Russian economy is guaranteed despite high inflation. The IMF says that the extent of military spending – now estimated to be triple what it was when the war began – has bolstered the Russian economy in the short term, with expected GDP growth of 2.2% this year. Unemployment is also low, at 3%. But the IMF also said that the longer-term picture is “dim”. And the fruits of that growth may not be obvious to ordinary people seeing investment in schools, hospitals, and other essentials static while military spending grows to 40% of the government’s budget.
All of that does suggest that the Russian economy, which the IMF says was “converging towards western European levels of GDP” before the war began, is in a much worse place than it would have otherwise been. But it also shows that western sanctions have not had the catastrophic impact that would force Putin to change course – and, paradoxically, that the biggest shock to the Russian economy may come when the war ends and military spending scales back. For now, Putin can continue to boast of the “stability of the financial-economic system” despite western attempts to undermine it.
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Domestic popularity | ‘Turbo-patriots’ and an indifferent majority
In one sense, Putin’s domestic popularity is a confection: in a repressive political climate where opponents are jailed or exiled and bad news is kept well away from TV bulletins, it is likely that his poll ratings are inflated well beyond their “natural” level.
On the other hand, opinion research always gets “information not about people’s innermost thoughts, but about their public attitudes”, Denis Volkov of the respected independent pollster the Levada Center wrote in April. And while polling is a deeply imperfect measure in Russia, the same Levada Center surveys that showed a distinct dip in his popularity after the war began now show an 85% approval rating. Support for the war itself has also increased since the early days of the invasion.
Volkov divides the Russian public into “turbo-patriots”, who “earnestly and aggressively support Putin”, and a larger group in a condition of “learned indifference” who nonetheless view the president as a legitimate leader.
“The event tended towards the turbo-patriot side,” Andrew said. “But there were also very ordinary questions, like a Moscow resident complaining about the price of an unfinished toll road from Moscow to Kazan.” Putin promised to check on it.
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A new term | Election will guarantee position until 2030
One of the key purposes of yesterday’s event was to set the tone for next year’s presidential elections. “The big question was whether he [would] focus on the war and rally round the flag, or try to normalise life,” Andrew said. “There was a little bit for both sides, and a sense that this isn’t just about the military – it’s about a patriotic ethos for all of society.”
The election that will bring Putin his fifth term and install him in power until at least 2030 will be neither free nor fair: none of those running against him are true rivals, and anything apart from an overwhelming victory would be astonishing.
All in all, Andrew said, “it was noticeable how calm he was. He’s usually a little more combative in these appearances: at some point in four hours of questions, something will rile him up. But people saw this as very much a performance designed to show that things are under control.”
What else we’ve been reading
Luke Harding’s dispatch from near the city of Avdiivka, on the front line of conflict between Russia and Ukraine for almost a decade, is a chilling portrait of Vladimir Putin’s nihilistic pursuit of victory. “To begin with it was groups of 10 men,” one Ukrainian commander says of his enemy. “Now it’s one or two or three without support. Their commander uses them like live meat.” Alessio Mamo’s pictures (above) are also extraordinary. Archie
When Andy Warhol met Joseph Beuys in Düsseldorf in 1979 it was “like two popes meeting”, writes Skye Sherwin. The two were “epic opposites” in terms of their artistic expression. Warhol ended up making a series of portraits of Beuys. Clare Longrigg, acting head of newsletters
Fiona Harvey has a definitive read on how the Cop28 deal was done – a deeply imperfect agreement brokered by an Emirati oil executive, but far better than looked possible a day earlier. The story starts with a brief meeting between US climate envoy John Kerry and the Saudi energy minister. Archie
The lure of mass tourism continues to plague the world’s most beautiful places. After the paradise island of Bora Bora was forced to stop large cruise ships overwhelming its fragile ecosystem, the rest of French Polynesia has announced it will double tourist numbers. Clare
“It’s as if there were dark matter lurking in the cosmos of carcinogens.” In the New Yorker (£) Siddhartha Mukerjee investigates inciting agents - one of the unsolved mysteries in cancer epidemiology. Clare
Sport
Football | West Ham can start planning for the next stage of their continental adventure after securing first place in their Europa League group with a dominant 2-0 win over Freiburg. A dramatic late strike from João Pedro gave Brighton a 1-0 win against Marseille and took them directly to the last 16. The youngest side to represent Liverpool in Europe still represented a monumental 2-1 scalp for Union Saint-Gilloise. Meanwhile, Chelsea were held to a goalless draw by a resilient Häcken in their return to Women’s Champions League action.
Cricket | England collapsed again to go 2-0 down in their T20 series against the West Indies, with Sam Curran’s half-century in vain as England finished on 166-7 in pursuit of their hosts’ 176-7. “England hoped to use this tour to get into a groove before next year’s T20 World Cup,” wrote Simon Burnton, “and instead they find themselves in a trough”.
Football | Rebecca Welch (above) will become the first woman to referee a Premier League match when she takes charge of Fulham’s home game against Burnley on 23 December. Three days later, Sam Allison will become the first black referee to officiate in the top flight for 15 years.
The front pages
The Guardian’s headline is “We will stand until the end’: on the frontline in Ukraine” as the paper has special coverage of the war. In the i it’s “Interest rates may have to rise next year, Bank warns”. The Telegraph says “Hamas plot to kill Jews in Europe foiled” after the arrest of four people in an alleged cross-border terrorism plot. The Times has ‘“Pro-vaping campaign funded by Big Tobacco”, covering the role of tobacco companies in funding research papers.
The Mirror has “Lost Brit boy found after 6 years”, the story of 17-year-old Alex Batty, who has been found in France. The Mail has the same story with “Where’s Alex been for the last six years?”. The Express has “Mystery phone calls from missing Gaynor to friend” on the disappearance of 55-year-old Gaynor Lord. And in the Sun, the headline is “Ben & Cat get Arise”. The paper says presenters Ben Shephard and Cat Deeley are set to be the new faces of ‘This Morning’ TV programme.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
Mary Berry’s Highland Christmas (BBC One and iPlayer)
It is Christmas and Santa has somehow decided – based on no evidence as far as I can see in this blasted hellscape of a year – that we have been good enough to have Mary Berry back. And so, having been put away in (I imagine) tissue paper since she was last needed, like a glass bauble, she has been unwrapped and placed in the television schedules to twinkle at us once more, in Mary Berry’s Highland Christmas complete with Andy Murray and his grandmother. A lovely, soothing special. Lucy Mangan
Music
The 50 best albums of 2023
Our countdown of the year’s best albums continues with punk passion from Olivia Rodrigo, a wakeup call from Yves Tumor and Boygenius’s instant indie classic. Blur’s The Ballad of Darren is number 8, a perfect combination of middle-aged regret with swooning pop, a powerful career summation. Laura Snapes and Ben Beaumont-Thomas
Film
Monica (UK and Irish cinemas)
Trace Lysette (above) is excellent as a young woman returning home to care for her dying mother in Andrea Pallaoro’s intelligently crafted film. Monica refuses the cliched “issue movie” beats of confrontation, catharsis and resolution. Like his previous work Hannah, which starred Charlotte Rampling as the haunted, troubled woman of that name, Monica is marked by its cool compositional rigour: scenes from a life are evoked with studied, often wordless vignettes and middle-distance shots from fixed camera positions, combined occasionally with looming, asymmetrical closeups. Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
I Feel Connie (Widely available)
Drag Race fans will want to plug into drag legend Love Connie’s podcast all about, well, her! It’s packed with anecdotes on moving to LA to get into drag and break into Hollywood, discussions on Courtney Love, memories of 90s New York City and thoughts on pop culture obsessions. In the name of some balance, she is joined by co-host Blake Jacobs. Hollie Richardson
Today in Focus
How Madonna changed pop culture for ever
It’s 40 years since Madonna began scandalising and delighting fans and critics around the world. But is she still misunderstood? Presented by lifelong Madonna fan Nosheen Iqbal with Mary Gabriel and Donna De Lory.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Brenda Lee has just become the oldest person ever to top the US chart, with the classic she recorded at 13: Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree. In this interview with Dave Simpson, Lee recalls touring with Jerry Lee Lewis, forming a bond with the king of rock’n’roll and what she learned from Judy Garland.
“It’s been a week, I tell you!” says Lee over a Zoom call from her Nashville home. Aged 78, she became the oldest person to score a US chart-topper (she is now 79), overtaking Louis Armstrong, who was 63 when Hello, Dolly! went to No 1 in 1964.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.
