Good morning. It is 12 days since elections took place in Venezuela, but there is still no consensus on the winner. The incumbent president, Nicolás Maduro of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, claimed he won with 51% of the vote, ahead of rival Edmundo González Urrutia with 44%.
However, the results were immediately met with suspicion. The president, who was running for a third term to lead a country that has been in a near-constant state of economic crisis during his tenure, made his position clear last month when he said there would be a “bloodbath” in Venezuela if he lost.
The opposition accused Maduro of rigging the election, throwing Venezuela into a perilous political situation. Since then, leaders from neighbouring countries and around the world have questioned the veracity of the results, demanding Maduro hand over evidence of his win. Protests erupted in the streets, which were met with a brutal police response. With warnings of a growing number of arbitrary detentions, Maduro has now said he will “pulverise” the challenge to his rule.
For today’s newsletter I spoke with Dr Christopher Sabatini, a senior research fellow for Latin America at Chatham House, about what led to this moment and what might happen next.
Five big stories
Far-right riots | Laws designed to counter misinformation are “not fit for purpose” and must be revisited after the spread of online falsehoods contributed to this month’s far-right riots, the mayor of London has said. Sadiq Khan said ministers should act “very, very quickly” to review the Online Safety Act.
Ukraine | Ukraine has publicly justified its attack into Russian territory for the first time, amid reports that its forces are advancing towards a village 13 miles inside the Kursk region.
NHS | The NHS in England has had its busiest summer ever in A&E with 4.6m attendances over the past two months, while 1.5m hospital appointments were rescheduled because of the junior doctors’ strikes, according to the latest figures.
Economy | Wall Street enjoyed its best day of trading in nearly two years, recovering most of the losses it suffered during a sell-off sparked by US economic fears earlier this week. The S&P 500 rose 2.3% to 5,319.32, its biggest single-day jump since November 2022.
Austria | The 19-year-old prime suspect in an alleged plot to attack a Taylor Swift concert that led to the cancellation of the singer’s three-night run in Vienna had collected chemicals with the intention of building a bomb, senior Austrian security officials have said.
In depth: ‘What’s curious is the massive cross-class coalition of people demanding change’
Maduro has claimed the reaction to the election is tantamount to an attempt at a coup, which he has said is being led primarily by far-right extremists. “We are not facing democratic opposition, we are facing a violent, fascist and criminal counter-revolution. And I will not tire of explaining it to our people and to the world,” he said in a televised address. But there is little evidence that his assertions are true.
Instead, the picture appears to be one of a rigged election followed by a repressive attempt to cling on to power. Here’s what you need to know.
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Accusations of election rigging
Arbitrary arrests and detentions of opposition activists and clampdowns of civic spaces marred Venezuela’s election campaign. Hopes of a fair election began to erode at the start of the year when a supreme justice tribunal banned the popular presidential candidate María Corina Machado on the grounds of fraud and tax violations, which critics have called politically motivated . She has since endorsed González.
The Maduro government has also allegedly attempted to block the presence of opposition representatives at polling stations to monitor the process. Voters reportedly found that their polling stations had been unexpectedly moved, in some cases to other states. Meanwhile, in some neighbourhoods that are Maduro strongholds, polling stations were kept open for longer.
“What is surprising is that these efforts weren’t sufficient to really make up for the profound unpopularity that the incumbent government was facing,” Sabatini says. “So they have been accused of resorting to old-fashioned ballot box stuffing or just making up the numbers.”
The opposition has said they have seen 80% of paper ballots and, based on that tally, they were able to demonstrate that González won about 60% of the vote, compared with 30% for Maduro.
This analysis by Tiago Rogero sets out more of the evidence that Maduro was soundly beaten. Maduro has faced significant pressure to show proof of the results but so far the government of Venezuela has not provided any such information.
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Consolidation of power
Since the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013, Maduro has been consolidating power in the military, judiciary, media and police. Not only has this further exacerbated repressive tendencies, it has also alienated his own base on the left. One survey found that Maduro’s popularity had dropped to 26.7%, compared with more than 59% for González. He has been described as a “populist without popularity”.
“The institutions of government have been fully packed with supporters and loyalists to the government, so there’s not much recourse that the opposition has in terms of going to a neutral institution to demand a recount or evidence,” Sabatini says.
González and Machado sent an open letter to the security forces earlier this week urging them to abandon Maduro. But within hours of the letter being posted on social media, attorney general Tarek Saab announced he was launching a criminal probe against González and Machado for inciting police and military officials to break the law. And defence minister and army chief Vladimir Padrino has rejected the appeal, saying that Maduro has his forces’ “absolute loyalty”.
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The lives of Venezuelans
Due to a combination of mismanagement and sanctions from the US, Venezuela’s economy has shrunk by 75% in the last nine years. Recent reports have found that 82% of Venezuelans live below the poverty line, and 53% in extreme poverty. At one point, hyperinflation rates hit 130,000%. The quality of life for the average Venezuelan has eroded, and nearly 8 million have left the country – almost a quarter of the population.
This economic freefall has come hand in hand with increasing repression and human rights violations. Dissidents have been forcibly disappeared and tortured, and Amnesty International has said that “impunity for ongoing extrajudicial executions by the security forces persisted”.
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The civic response
There has been a huge civic response to the allegations of election fraud. People have taken to the streets, despite an awareness that the consequences of such an action could be devastating. Since the election, more than 2,000 people have been arrested.
This piece by Tom Phillips and Patricia Torres hears from some of the family members of those who have been detained, like Tibisay Betancourt, whose son went out to buy a bottle of Sprite during the protest and was seen being beaten and dragged away by the police.
“What’s curious about this is there is a massive cross-class coalition of people demanding change, which is unique,” Sabatini says, adding that past Chávez supporters from the barrios and shantytowns in rural areas are pouring into the streets demanding change.
“There’s widespread disbelief, distrust, anger, and I think the biggest problem may be after this wave, if there’s no response at all we will likely see apathy and then a desire for people to leave, hollowing out the country even more than it has been.”
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Diplomatic pressure
The international community has also been vocal in its concern about the situation in Venezuela. The US, the EU and the UK have said they will not recognise the election results, and have recognised González as the winner.
Brazil, Mexico and Colombia have called for Venezuela to release full vote tallies and are reportedly lobbying Maduro to accept the results.
“It remains to be seen whether Brazil and Colombia and maybe Mexico, which are leftwing governments, will have a little more leverage,” Sabatini says. “But there is the question of how much political and diplomatic capital they’re willing to expend.”
There is an incentive for some South American countries to put pressure on Maduro, though: they already house a significant number of Venezuelan refugees. There are close to 1 million in Brazil and close to 3 million in Colombia, and while both countries have been welcoming to those that have fled, there are signs of tension in places which could bring domestic problems for these governments.
Without the support of China and Russia, who have backed Maduro and given recognition to his government, there will be no multilateral solution to the crisis engulfing Venezuela. “It’s really going to come down to either bilateral or ad hoc diplomacy,” Sabatini says. “But there is no clear path forward.”
What else we’ve been reading
After the far right were vastly outnumbered in the streets on Wednesday night, Polly Toynbee writes that “it was not just forces of law and order that won the day, but also the multitudes of people, ordinary decent people”. Archie
The pain and torment of finishing fourth at the Olympics is unimaginable – Elle Hunt talks to five athletes about how it affected their lives. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
I had an idyllic, car-free childhood holiday in the Scilly Isles, way back in 1990 (urgh). Phoebe Taplin’s piece makes me want to go again. Archie
Nathalie Tocci explores how the culture wars are being fought in the Olympic Park in Paris – from the opening ceremony’s Last Supper controversy to the women’s boxing ring. Toby
Guardian writers remember their most memorable parent-kid movie experiences, whether from their own childhood or trips with their offspring. The idea of Amy Hawkins watching Lust, Caution with her mother is absolutely mind-blowing. Archie
Sport
Paris 2024 | Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone led a triumphant night for US athletics by beating her own world record in the women’s 400m hurdles. Further golds at the Paris Games went to Americans in the women’s long jump and men’s 110m hurdles – but Noah Lyles missed out to Letsile Tebogo in the 200m and was later revealed to have tested positive for Covid.
Football | Newcastle have signed the Denmark Under-21s striker Will Osula from Sheffield United for an undisclosed fee, understood to be an initial £10m. Meanwhile, West Ham defender Kurt Zouma has agreed a move to the UAE Pro League side Shabab Al-Ahli.
Formula One | The female employee who accused the Red Bull team principal, Christian Horner, of inappropriate behaviour has had her appeal into the investigation that dismissed her complaint rejected.
The front pages
The Guardian headline is “Laws to stop fake news are not fit for purpose, says London mayor”. In the Telegraph it’s “Khan: I’m no longer safe as a Muslim” as the paper covers other comments by the mayor. The Daily Mail runs with “Riot thugs jailed and shamed on TV as courts get tough” over the sentencing of some rioters. The Daily Express has “Labour man held over call to ‘cut rioters’ throats’” after the suspension of councillor Ricky Jones from the party and his arrest over the alleged comments.
The Times has “Visa curbs spark rapid fall in new migrants” as it covers falling immigration numbers. In the Mirror it’s “Machete and bomb plot on Taylor Swift fans”. The i takes on the budget with “Reeves to order ministers to make major savings amid defence cuts”.
In the Financial Times, it’s “Google and Meta struck secret ads deal to target teens” as the paper says the move ‘skirted its own rules’ for how minors are treated online.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
Slip (ITV/ITVX)
Zoe Lister Jones’s Mae has a one-night stand, with Eric, a famous musician (Amar Chadha-Patel). Her resulting orgasm transports her into another dimension, in which she is married to Eric instead of her husband and living a life of partying, drugs and negotiation of his infidelities. So we begin the orgasmic odyssey, with Mae working her way through a variety of lifestyles – one includes motherhood, which Original Mae, as a product of the foster-care system, had always ruled out – and sexualities. Lucy Mangan
Music
King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard – Flight b741
You may have assumed that King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard are just not for you. But don’t underestimate them. They’re fine pop songwriters and fastidious producers, expanding their garage sound to encompass funk, jazz and dance music. Shaad d’Souza
Film
It Ends with Us
It’s initially hard to know how one should take a film focused on a florist named Lily Blossom Bloom (Blake Lively, above) but Daddio writer Christy Hall’s script boasts a sharp and much-needed self-awareness, taking a similar, and superior, tack to Kelly Marcel and Patrick Marber’s loose take on Fifty Shades of Grey.
Today in Focus
“Welcome to hell”: inside Israel’s prisons
Palestinian prisoners have spoken of sexual assault and starvation in Israeli jails. Bethan McKernan reports
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Oleksandr Budko was able to cope with the trauma of losing both legs in Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region, saying that during recovery he tried to find meaning in life. “Then, somehow, my brain looked for the positive everywhere,” he says.
But the challenges he and others face trying to navigate the world independently with a disability have made him truly angry. To cope, Budko has become a prominent disability rights activist in his country with a YouTube series that sees him take Ukrainian celebrities on tours to focus on a need for greater accessibility. And now the former barista, who competed in the Invictus Games, is taking his activism to another high-profile platform: he will star in the forthcoming season of Ukraine’s version of the reality show The Bachelor.
“There is a lack of understanding of disabled people in Ukraine, but there are more and more people with disabilities every day [because of the war],” he told reporter Liz Cookman in Kyiv. “If we can change societal attitudes, then it will be easier to push for more structural changes.”
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until Monday.
