Good morning, and good grief, that is quite an astonishing result: Boris Johnson has suffered two devastating byelection defeats that will once again put his leadership of the Conservative party under intense scrutiny.
It was rough enough to lose Wakefield, a red wall seat which the Tories took in 2019, to Labour again, by a margin of 4,925 votes – a result that could plausibly be explained as an ordinary mid-term bloody nose for the governing party. But the real marmalade-dropper was the loss of the Devon constituency of Tiverton and Honiton to the Lib Dems by 6,144 votes: the loss of a 24,000 majority, the biggest byelection reversal in history.
The results were so bad that party chairman Oliver Dowden – who was meant to do the morning’s media round, so tune in to see what happens there – immediately quit and said “somebody must take responsibility.” A lot of Tory MPs will be wondering whether it ought to be the prime minister. In a quietly nuclear letter, Dowden also said he’d stay loyal to the party. He didn’t say the same thing about Johnson.
Head to the website for the very latest reaction and analysis as it comes in this morning – and we’ll break down the results right after the rest of the headlines.
Five big stories
EU | European leaders have granted Ukraine candidate status, in a historic decision that opens the door to EU membership for the war-torn country and deals a blow to Vladimir Putin.
Strikes | Heathrow airport faces disruption from strikes this summer, as hundreds of check-in and ground staff voted in favour of walkouts during the peak holiday period in a dispute with British Airways over pay.
Afghanistan | Organised rescue efforts were struggling to reach the site of an earthquake that killed more than 1,000 people, as survivors dug through the rubble by hand to find those still missing. At least three aftershocks were felt near the earthquake’s epicentre on Thursday.
US gun control | The US supreme court has opened the door for almost all law-abiding Americans to carry concealed and loaded handguns in public, after the conservative majority struck down a New York law that placed strict restrictions on firearms outside the home.
Crime | Ruth Neave, the mother of murdered schoolboy Rikki Neave, has said she is planning to challenge her 1996 conviction of child cruelty offences following the sentencing of James Watson for the killing of her son.
In depth: A brutal night for the prime minister
Here’s what these two results aren’t: a perfect representation of overall public opinion across the country, or of what would happen in a general election in either seat. Here’s what they definitely are: very bad news for Boris Johnson. No governing party has lost two byelections on the same night in more than 30 years. And these are two very different parts of the country, presenting two very different electoral problems for Johnson to solve.
In honour of their respective successes, Labour’s Keir Starmer will go to Wakefield and the Lib Dems’ Ed Davey to Tiverton and Honiton today. Boris Johnson is 6,000 miles away in Rwanda, and plenty of his own MPs may be hoping that he never comes back.
Here’s what happened overnight, and what it means:
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Tiverton and Honiton
“We have come back from 27,000 votes behind,” Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine told Sky News, as the victory for the party’s candidate Richard Foord became clear last night. “It’s the biggest reversal of a majority in British electoral history in a byelection. There is no way that can be anything other than huge.”
Which is a big statement, but not hyperbolic: the Tories won with 60% of the vote last time, and this defeat came with a swing of nearly 30%. “It was remarkable,” said Steven Morris, as he headed home from covering the count for the Guardian. “I thought it was 50-50 all the way up to the byelection, but at five to three the Lib Dems said they’d got it – and the scale of the win became clear very quickly.” The numbers suggest that “it wasn’t just Tories staying at home,” Steven added – “it was Tories switching to the Lib Dems.”
One of the stories of the night was the extent of tactical voting: Labour came second ahead of the Lib Dems last time around, and this time lost their deposit. “They seemed pretty cheerful about it,” said Steven. “They very much understood that they were going for it in Wakefield and the Lib Dems were here.”
On his travels around the constituency, Steven has found that older voters are particularly animated about Johnson’s leadership after Partygate; younger ones retain that personal antipathy, but also talk a lot about the cost of living crisis. “I think he’d still squeeze a win down here without the state of the economy,” he said.
But the toxic combination of the two has left the Tories in disarray – even in a seat which supported Brexit and skewed older, meaning that it is not the classic “blue wall” seat that many suggest will be vulnerable to the Lib Dems in a general election. Maybe the most resonant miniature of the whole night was the Tory candidate, Helen Hurford, locking herself in a dance studio at Crediton sports centre and refusing to speak to the press. “We were meant to be doing our interviews in there,” Steven noted.
“They’ve been remarkably defensive,” he added. “I’ve done this for many years, and even when they’re losing they usually have the good grace to talk to you about what’s happening. But that wasn’t the case this time. It felt like a sign of a party in chaos.”
While the Lib Dems have long been byelection specialists without necessarily translating those results to general election success, “I think they’ll take a lot of hope from this,” Steven said. “A few years ago they were dominating places like Somerset and Cornwall, and they’re nowhere there now. So this will give them a huge boost.”
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Wakefield
“It’s a little bit anticlimactic, to be honest,” said Helen Pidd, the Guardian’s north of England editor, hopping on the phone shortly after the result came in. “It was a foregone conclusion that Labour were going to win here. But it really is a pretty decent result when you look at it.”
Victory for the Labour candidate Simon Lightwood would not necessarily have been a particularly encouraging sign for the party if it had been by a small margin. But a 13% swing against the Tories, while not as big as the Lib Dem result, is enough for Keir Starmer to claim he is making real progress.
“It was about Johnson,” said Helen. “Labour kept repeating – this is your chance to boot Boris out. Whereas he wasn’t on the Tory leaflets.”
At the same time, she notes, “there’s no sign of love for Starmer round here. A lot of the Tory attack lines – Captain Hindsight and all that – have filtered through. And there is still some residual fondness for Boris Johnson despite everything that’s happened in recent months.”
One final point: just as Labour lost their deposit in Tiverton, the Lib Dems did here, winning just 508 votes against Labour’s 13,166. “This is industrial scale tactical voting,” the pollster Matt Singh said on Twitter. “And it’s a big deal.”
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What it means for the Tories
“It’s pretty seriously bad,” said the Guardian’s political correspondent Peter Walker. “It’s hard to see how it could have gone much worse for Johnson.”
The tactical voting that took place suggests that anti-Conservative voters are becoming more sophisticated in their determination to get rid of the government, he added – “and once people have done it once they’re more likely to do it again. In the past there’s been a lot of fuss about a progressive alliance – but these results suggest that you don’t really need one.
“Within minutes of the byelection date being announced Labour were saying, it makes sense for us to focus our resources on where we’re going to do best.”
That is much harder as a strategy for a general election when voters will be more persuaded by warnings that their local votes could have national consequences – vote Davey, get Starmer, and all that. Nonetheless, a lot of Tory MPs with smaller majorities than the party was protecting in Tiverton and Honiton will be making new calculations this morning about what Johnson’s leadership means for their own political future.
“It makes another challenge more likely,” said Peter. “If things keep heading in this direction, I think an attempt to change the rules [as things stand Johnson can’t be challenged for a full year after the recent no-confidence vote] in the autumn, around party conference time, is pretty likely.
“The Tories can argue that byelections are crucibles, that they didn’t have great local campaigns, and so on. But to a lot of MPs this will look like a pincer movement, and they’re vulnerable on two flanks. And that could make the mood poisonous.”
What else we’ve been reading
RMT leader Mick Lynch’s superbly crisp media interventions find the analysis they deserve in this piece by Jeremy Gilbert, who nails exactly why his voice has felt so necessary: “Lynch puts the case for collective action with a precision and a lack of moralism that is both appealing and vanishingly rare.” Archie
From the Bulo Garas camp, Fathi Mohamed Ahmed takes a look at the catastrophic results of the worst drought in decades in Somalia. Nimo
Some fascinating nuggets in Jim Waterson’s look at the troubled launch of Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV – but most striking is the fact that guests are being offered thousands to come on Piers Morgan’s show and subject themselves to a pasting. I’m available Piers!! Just reply to this email. Archie
Jason Okundaye writes about why Gary Lineker’s comments about experiencing racialised abuse as a footballer in the 1980s are fair and right, pointing out that because identity is a “porous, socially determined thing”, others inevitably become collateral damage. Nimo
Lots of good Glastonbury coverage over the next few days, and lots of good anecdotes in this interview with Herbie Hancock ahead of his appearance - including how his time playing with Miles Davis was ended by a bout of food poisoning on honeymoon in Rio de Janeiro. Archie
Sport
Cricket | England took five wickets to make a strong start to the third test against New Zealand at Headingley - including a freak deflection for a catch off the bowling of Jack Leach. But they were again held up by a fine partnership from Daryl Mitchell and Tom Blundell.
Swimming | Artistic swimmer Anita Alvarez had to be rescued after she lost consciousness and sunk to the bottom of the pool during the world swimming championships in Budapest. The US team has said she is now feeling much better.
Tennis | Serena Williams’s comeback tournament in Eastbourne came to a premature end on Thursday after her doubles partner, Ons Jabeur, withdrew from their doubles semi-final citing a knee injury.
The front pages
Our Guardian print splash today is “Airport staff vote to strike as threat of disruption widens”, which the i presents as “BA summer holiday strike set to cause turmoil at Heathrow”. The Metro predicts “Terminal chaos”, while the Mirror says “Air rage” and “Threat to summer hols” – it points the finger at BA refusing to restore full pay to staff who took a Covid cut. The Financial Times has the story as “Summer of discontent fears rise as BA staff vote for holiday strike”. “Charles should keep open mind on Rwanda, says PM” – that’s the Times. The pair are due to meet today, says the Daily Mail, but “Boris” has already delivered a “Rwanda rebuke to Prince Charles”. The Express has “Judge slams his own court over secret Rwanda ruling” – one of the ECHR’s bench is apparently “taken aback” that the author of the ruling was not named. “Drive for green fuel to be relaxed” says the Telegraph, reporting that because of the cost of living crisis, the PM wants the land used to grow biofuel grains to be used for food instead. “Queen back in the saddle” – the Sun is pleased that Her Majesty has been horseriding again, “year after being told to quit”.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
Glastonbury highlights (BBC Two, from 9pm; further coverage on BBC iPlayer and BBC Sounds)
“Expect considerable excitement at Worthy Farm as the first full day of festivities gets under way. In addition to the occasion itself, it’s also a belting day of music; headlining the Pyramid tonight is the frighteningly talented 20-year-old Billie Eilish, while elsewhere you’ll find Isle of Wight indie heroes Wet Leg and versatile rapper Little Simz.” – Phil Harrison
Music
Soccer Mommy – Sometimes, Forever
“At 25, Sophie Allison is more of an indie traditionalist than most of her US alt-rock peers, thus far sticking to a template rooted in the early 90s. Enlisting producer Daniel Lopatin – AKA electronic auteur Oneohtrix Point Never – proves to be Sometimes, Forever’s smartest move, shifting the album into less recognisable terrain, as the songwriter begins to spread her wings.” – Alexis Petridis
Film
Wings of Desire
“Wim Wenders’ extravagantly wistful, intensely literary romantic fantasy, co-conceived with Peter Handke, is re-released and right now it looks more than anything like an elegiac ‘city symphony’ about Berlin. Perhaps it has dated a little, but it is a cinema of ideas, almost an essay movie, and utterly distinctive.”
– Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
Sound Barrier: Sylvester
“As the crafter of disco’s finest tune, You Make Me Feel (Mighty Real), Sylvester was ahead of his time both musically and in terms of being an openly gay Black man. This brilliant podcast shows his ruthless ambition, with beautiful demos and comments from superfans including Patti LaBelle and Billy Porter.” – Hannah Verdier
Today in Focus
Artificial intelligence: conscious or just very convincing?
Alex Hern reports on recent developments in artificial intelligence and how a Google employee became convinced an AI chatbot was sentient
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
This weekend, Billie Eilish will make Glastonbury history as the youngest solo artist to ever headline the festival. Among the thousands of adoring fans will be Maggie Baird, probably be cheering the loudest. Baird is Eilish’s mum and has been watching her daughter go from strength to strength since she started her career at the age of 13.
Now, seven years later, she works closely with her daughter managing the environmental impact of Eilish’s huge shows, the latest being at one of the most famous festivals in the world. “As a parent, everything your kid does from the beginning is kind of amazing,” Baird says, “I was blown away when she was playing the little club in our tiny area of Highland Park [in Los Angeles]. It just stays mind-blowing.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.
