Good morning.
Nationwide protests in Iran, sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by morality police (which we covered here last week), have entered their third week and they show no signs of slowing down. Iran’s president has stated that the government will not accept chaos on the streets – an all too clear indication that the violent crackdown on protests will continue.
However, Iran’s well-honed state apparatus for repressing dissidents has not been able to quell demonstrations or diminish the morale of protesters. In fact, it has added fuel to the fire. And on Thursday, the mother of a teenager who died after joining the protests accused the authorities of murdering her daughter and pressuring her into saying her death was a suicide.
I spoke to Guardian senior international correspondent Emma Graham-Harrison about what might happen next. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Energy | Rolling power cuts in the UK this winter if gas supplies run extremely low could endanger thousands of people who use life-saving machines at home, health leaders have warned. The National Grid warned on Thursday that households could experience three-hour electricity outages this winter.
Media | Doreen Lawrence and Prince Harry are among a list of famous figures launching legal action against the publisher of the Daily Mail over the alleged misuse of their private information, including an accusation relating to the placing of listening devices in private homes.
Thailand | 38 people, mostly young children, have been killed in a mass stabbing and shooting at a preschool centre. The perpetrator has been identified as Panya Khamrab, a 34-year-old former police officer, who later killed himself, his wife and his child.
Covid-19 | More than one million people have long Covid at least one year after they were first infected, according to data released by the ONS. Roughly 342,000 of those people have had their ability to do day-to-day activities severely limited.
US news | Joe Biden has warned the world could face “Armageddon” if Vladimir Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon to try to win the war in Ukraine. “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis,” Biden said.
In depth: ‘We are already inside a worst case scenario’
Recent protests have highlighted the political, social and economic crises that have been engulfing Iran for many years. But what hope is there that they can shape the future of the country and how it is governed? Below, with the help of Emma, I’ve sketched out a few scenarios that could play out in the coming weeks and months.
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Regime change
The most alarming thing about these protests for the Iranian government is the central demand: people want a new government. School girls have been burning photos of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (above), women have shaved their hair off, and protesters up and down the country have been chanting “death to the dictator”. In a country where dissidence can lead to lengthy jail time, brutal punishments and even death, this is no small thing. In the hearts and minds of many, this feels like the start of a revolution. And for good reason.
These protests have crossed ethnic and class lines; they’re being led by women; they’re happening in conservative parts of the country that have traditionally been part of the Islamic Republic’s base, including the Shia holy cities of Mashhad and Qom. And despite suffering from some of the most brutal crackdowns, demonstrations in Kurdish cities persist.
The death of Nika Shahkarami (below), a 16-year-old who went missing on 20 September after joining an anti-hijab protest in Tehran, has become nearly as totemic as that of Amini herself, Patrick Wintour reports. The news on Thursday of a video of her mother Nasrin saying that a forensic report proved Nika had died “due to repeated blunt force trauma to the head” contradicted the official account of suicide, and is only likely to intensify anger at the authorities.
“The broad support for these protests that we’re seeing across all these different divides in Iran is unprecedented,” Emma says, “and that may be one reason the regime is very frightened.”
However, Emma thinks a complete overhaul of government is unlikely in a country where the state is extremely entrenched – and more than willing to use the full force of its military and militia groups against its own people. “The absolute lack of compunction about using force against civilians means, even with the incredible courage of protesters coming out, it’s very hard to see the protesters alone toppling the government,” Emma explains.
External pressure is an important factor in overthrowing a regime but the history of autocratic administrations, like the one in Iran, shows that normally they are brought down by internal politics and palace coups – and in any case there’s not much appetite from the international community to intervene directly. At the moment there’s not much evidence of a coordinated insurgency nor is there any indication that the dissent has made its way inside the government.
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A negotiated settlement
There is, in theory, a situation where the Iranian government offers some concessions to the protesters to restore peace and end the confrontation between the authorities and the public. However, as the unrest enters its 22nd day, and public fury escalates further, this outcome seems exceedingly unlikely.
Compromise is how protest movements often work in a democracy, Emma points out, but that doesn’t really translate in this situation. “The demands of the women and the religious requirements of the ruling elite are just completely at odds,” Emma says. On the one hand protesters are burning hijabs and photos of the country’s leadership, on the other the government has dismissed the protesters as corrupt western puppets. (The interior minister, Ahmad Vahidi, has said protesters are calling for “the nakedness and shamelessness of women” and Khamenei accused the US and Israel of orchestrating the protests.) For all intents and purposes, the social contract in Iran has been destroyed.
There is an indirect route the government could take to calm its citizens. With its vast oil reserves and highly educated population, Iran could be relatively prosperous but, due to economic mismanagement and international sanctions, it has been going through terrible stagnation. The lack of economic opportunity and hyperinflation are central factors in the mass discontent.
Fixing this could help calm protests. Iran’s release of two American prisoners, both accused of “collaboration with a hostile government”, is further indication the Tehran leadership wants the US to ease sanctions that have severely damaged the economy. Iran’s semi-official news agency, Nournews, has said that billions of dollars of Iranian assets that have been frozen abroad will be “released soon.” This however would be a very long-term solution – it would take months or even years for the effects of economic recovery to hit the pockets and homes of regular citizens. By that time, it might be far too late.
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Violent ends
The government could shut down these protests by escalating its use of violence to deter action. The Associated Press has reported that 1,900 people have already been arrested; teargas, metal pellets, and in some cases live ammunition have been used to break up protests, and at least 154 people, including children, are thought to have been killed. “We should consider that we are already inside a worst case scenario,” Emma says.
And yet, despite this, the current level of coercion and violence has not been enough to stop Iranians from taking to the streets.
Whatever the outcome, there is no simple solution for the government, says Emma. “This has escalated to the point where it’s not going to be easy for them to shut it down.”
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A correction: In yesterday’s newsletter we said that Somalia suffered from a famine in 2017. In fact, it narrowly avoided famine by the formal definition. We also wrote that the RCN is the largest union in the UK in the headlines – we meant to write that it’s the largest nursing union.
What else we’ve been reading
Sport
Football | Arsenal played another strong game, comfortably beating Bodø/Glimt 3-0, in the Europa League at the Emirates. After some smart substituting by Erik ten Hag, Manchester United won in a game against Omonia Nicosia, 3-2.
Boxing | The fight between Conor Benn and Chris Eubank Jr has finally been postponed after Benn tested positive for clomifene, a fertility drug which can boost testosterone. Promoter Eddie Hearn Jr had initially mounted a legal challenge against the British Boxing Board of Control’s decision to prohibit the fight.
Rugby Union | Worcester Warriors have been expelled from the Premiership for at least two years after the Rugby Football Union confirmed the club’s suspension until the end of the season as well as their relegation to the Championship for next term.
The front pages
“Rolling power cuts could put lives at risk, charities tell National Grid” – our Guardian paper splash this morning. That story is the main preoccupation of most major titles. “Electricity blackout warning this winter” says the i while the Mirror calls it a “Return to the dark ages” and warns of “1970s style blackouts”. “Gas import threat puts UK at risk of blackouts” is the Times’ headline. “UK warned it could face winter blackouts” says the Telegraph. The Daily Express has “Homes face 3-hour winter power cuts”. The Metro’s headline for this story is the most original today: “A winter of disconnect”. The Daily Mail says “Blackout ‘deal’ sparks a storm” – it explains that families on smart meters are being offered £10 a day in relief but must run appliances at night, and the meters are only installed in around half of premises. The Financial Times looks at the mini-budget fallout: “BoE says UK was on brink of crisis after market turmoil”. The Sun has a story about former Strictly competitor Seann Walsh (who is described in less than flattering terms) going on I’m A Celebrity.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
Ralph & Katie (BBC One/BBC iPlayer)
Ralph & Katie isn’t just good-humoured, it is funny. In its best moments it recalls a bygone era of soaps, Coronation Street in particular, before they became overrun with adulterers, murderers and cast-obliterating catastrophes, when they were adept at character-comedy based on low-stakes community events. – Jack Seale
Music
Willow Smith – Coping Mechanism
It could be a mess, but it really isn’t. The production turns the bricolage of styles into a powerfully dynamic record. Multiple genres are packed tightly into songs that seldom break the three-minute barrier, giving Coping Mechanism an appealing sense of restless urgency. The dynamic shifts hang together because of Smith herself. She has a powerful and engaging voice that can move with apparent ease from a straightforwardly pretty pop style to a head-turning full-throttle howl, as on closer Batshit! – Alexis Petridis
Film
Nothing Compares
It was Sinéad O’Connor’s fate to be ahead of her time with her style and her political views, but also to command the world in the late 80s and early 90s with her beautiful keening, yodelling voice, and amazing shaven-headed charisma. But she differed from the modern world in one crucial respect: her refusal to play nice, to read the room – that sin which terrifies the social media age most of all. It’s a story recounted in this absorbing documentary by Kathryn Ferguson – incidentally revealing the media world’s hypocrisy. – Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
Black British Lives Matter
Widely available, episodes weekly
What does it mean to be Black in today’s Britain? It’s a complicated question that Lenny Henry and Marcus Ryder, who also published an anthology on the subject, are ready to answer. There’s much to be proud of, but also undeniable racism. BLM “wasn’t just a moment,” says Henry, who is joined by guests such as Ozwald Boateng and Afua Hirsch. – Hannah Verdier
Today in Focus
The cheating scandal rocking the chess world
The usually sedate world of chess has been pitched into turmoil with allegations an American grandmaster has cheated more than 100 times. Bryan Graham reports
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Annie Ernaux was awarded the Nobel prize for literature yesterday, the first French writer to win it since 2014. Ernaux was rewarded “for the courage and clinical acuity with which she uncovers the roots, estrangements and collective restraints of personal memory” in her work.
Although Ernaux had yet to be reached on the phone when the prize was announced, she is in line for an award of 10m Swedish krona (£840,000), which is given annually to the writer deemed to be, in the words of Alfred Nobel’s will, “the person who shall have produced in the field of literature the most outstanding work in an ideal direction”.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.
