Good morning. Since Monday’s devastating earthquake, rescue workers, medical supplies and financial support have poured into Turkey. Government-controlled parts of Syria, too, have been promised help from Russia, Iran, the UAE, and Iraq. But in opposition-controlled north-west Syria – already in need of vast quantities of UN assistance before the quake hit – instead of accelerating, aid has slowed almost to a halt.
The first UN trucks finally went over the Bab al-Hawa border crossing yesterday, bringing much needed supplies including tents, blankets, and mattresses. But aid workers on the ground say that is merely the resumption of a tiny part of the regular assistance in place before the earthquake, not the emergency lifesaving equipment they need.
The scale of the humanitarian crisis, and the death toll, are now higher than any catastrophe since the Japanese earthquake and tsunami in 2011. And with the prospects of saving those trapped in the rubble growing remote – videos of miraculous rescues like this only grow more poignant as they become ever more unlikely to be repeated - fears are now growing of an even worse long-term crisis in north-west Syria unless something changes fast.
Today’s newsletter, with the International Crisis Group’s senior Syria analyst, Dareen Khalifa, explains the practical and political reasons that the situation in north-west Syria is so different – and what needs to happen to avert another catastrophe. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Economy | The UK has narrowly avoided a recession in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to ONS figures published on Friday. The economy flatlined between October and December, with growth at 0% over that period. But the economy did shrink by 0.5% in December.
Religion | Church of England priests will be permitted to bless the civil marriages of same-sex couples, in a profound shift in the church’s stance on homosexuality after a historic vote by its governing body. The first blessings for gay couples could happen this summer.
UK politics | Labour has retained the West Lancashire constituency in a byelection called after its MP, Rosie Cooper, resigned last autumn. Ashley Dalton won with 14,068 votes, with a 10% swing to Labour and nearly 11% away from the Tories.
Ukraine | Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged European leaders to speed up weapons delivery and open EU membership talks with Ukraine this year, in a highly symbolic visit to Brussels, where he said Russia was trying to annihilate “the Ukrainian-European way of life”.
Race | Office of National Statistics figures show black people in England and Wales are four times more likely to be murdered than white people. While white people still make up the majority of victims, the data shows the disparity has grown over the last decade.
In depth: ‘A secondary disaster which may cause harm to more people than the initial disaster’
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The situation before the earthquake
Northern Syria is the only part of the country not under the control of Bashar al-Assad regime. Since 2019, the north-west has largely been under the control of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group and former al-Qaida affiliate.
HTS “has broken with transnational jihadist networks and now seeks entry into the realm of political engagement on Syria’s future”, Dareen Khalifa wrote in 2021; and while its rule in Idlib province is “deeply problematic” and not democratic, it is “Islamist, but not draconian”. Nonetheless, it is still a designated terrorist organisation.
Other parts of the north-west are under the control of Turkish-backed factions. Around 4.5 million people live in the region, with 4.1 million dependent on humanitarian aid – more than 90% – and 2.8 million displaced from other parts of Syria.
While a shaky ceasefire has been in place since March 2020, the impact of a decade of war remains profound. “Until the ceasefire, civilian infrastructure was subject to a systematic campaign by the Syrians and Russians for many years – hospitals, health facilities, mobile clinics, schools, IDP [internally displaced people] camps,” Dareen Khalifa said. “After that, Covid hit and then there was a cholera outbreak. So the infrastructure is really depleted in every possible way.”
That campaign hit more than 600 healthcare facilities (PDF) and killed hundreds of medical and aid workers. Only about 45% of healthcare facilities in place before the war across the whole country are operating today, the International Rescue Committee says.
Even without an earthquake coming during a bitter winter that makes losing your home a deadly threat, there were concerns about building safety in the region. In Aleppo, a residential building collapsed in January, killing 16 people. That was reportedly caused by water leakage in the building’s foundations, and such issues have been made more likely by years of Syrian and Russian bombing.
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The extent of damage caused by the earthquake
By Wednesday, local authorities estimated more than 2,000 deaths and 5,000 injuries in the region, figures that are certain to climb. “The situation is dire,” Khalifa said. “We can only imagine how people there will struggle over the coming days and months. It’s absolutely tragic.”
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates that 2,000 buildings have been levelled, with more than 5,000 partially destroyed. More than 11,000 families are known to be homeless – likely a low estimate - with many short of water and food. Hospitals need urgent basic medical provisions. Search and rescue teams lack equipment to move heavy rubble, and there are some towns those teams are yet to reach.
Recently built residential complexes for those displaced from government-controlled areas were unable to withstand the impact of the earthquake, Al Jazeera reported. Meanwhile, Idlib’s Bab al-Hawa hospital, a key triage site, has struggled under the sheer weight of casualties. (For a sense of the chaos there earlier this week, see this video, which some viewers may find distressing, about 1:40 in.)
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The aid situation
Because HTS is still designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN security council, “there are a lot of legal constraints on anything beyond immediate lifesaving aid”, Khalifa said.
Now, even as aid has poured into Turkey, even the most basic assistance to north-west Syria has been seriously compromised. Some aid organisations have struggled to contact local operatives, while the White Helmets, the key aid organisation on the ground, “have been left completely alone to conduct rescues”, Khalifa said.
Syrian government-controlled areas will benefit from promises of assistance from countries including Russia, Iran, the UAE, and Iraq. But none of that aid is likely to reach opposition-controlled areas, Natasha Hall, senior fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Middle East programme, wrote in this excellent piece.
The Assad regime is calling for sanctions to be lifted on the pretext of smoothing the path of “crossline” aid delivery – that is, delivered within Syria rather than across the border. That is a highly contentious question given the government’s documented history of siphoning off aid for its own uses: in 2021, researchers found that the Central Bank of Syria was taking 51 cents in every dollar of aid.
“My personal view is that the UN should be using any and every possible route given the scale of the crisis,” Khalifa said. “I don’t think that crossline aid should be scaled up [in the long term], but we should use it now.” But the US and others have rejected such an approach.
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A border crossing crisis
In 2014, the UN security council agreed to allow aid to cross at four border points – but since 2021, vetoes from Russia and China have reduced that to just one, at Bab al-Hawa.
Normally, about 600 aid trucks cross the border there each month, but damage to roads caused by the earthquake has massively limited access. “It has seemed to be inoperable in the last few days,” Khalifa said. “There are other crossings that have been used for years for trade and bilateral aid from Turkey, but they’re not in use by the UN.”
Before that first convoy, protesters have been holding up signs at the crossing asking why no aid came through for three days even as the bodies of 300 Syrians who died in Turkey have gone the other way, CNN reported.
A central reason is the damage to the UN’s own hub in the Turkish city of Gaziantep, near the epicentre of the earthquake. “The UN operation there is pretty much paralysed,” Khalifa said. “A lot of their offices were struck and their personnel were hit hard” – many are themselves living in cars or shelters. “Co-ordination with Turkish authorities is incredibly difficult because they’re all consumed by their own crisis.”
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What needs to happen
Aid experts are calling for the rapid opening of additional crossings on the Turkey-Syria border. “If the UN fails to extend its operation via these crossings, donor states should bypass the UN and do bilateral assistance themselves,” Khalifa said. “Now is not the time for a debate at the security council.”
There are also calls for a renewed commitment to provide long-term aid funding. Less than half of the $4.4bn (£3.7bn) the UN needed from donors was provided in 2022.
Finally, said Khalifa, “there’s been talk of plan B being to ramp up support to local organisations. Nothing can really match the scale and the capacity of the existing UN mechanism, but given the lack of alternatives, it’s not a black and white situation. Time is running out on a rapid intervention that could save lives.”
It is already too late for many of those who might have been saved. But, the World Health Organisation warns, with tens of thousands still living in the open in the most severe weather conditions, the region is now on the brink of “a secondary disaster which may cause harm to more people than the initial disaster”.
What else we’ve been reading
Burt Bacharach often gets “lumbered with the term easy listening”, writes Alexis Petridis – but that designation is “lazy to the point of being nonsensical… The truth was that no obvious label or category could contain what Bacharach did”. His songwriting was of “astonishing quality”, sometimes “distinctly strange”, and always “genuinely sui generis”. Archie
As someone whose brain is constantly overstimulated, I really struggle with meditation. But, it’s not all or nothing. You can enjoy some of the benefits of meditation without committing to its most classical forms, Amy Fleming writes. Nimo
After Conservative party vice-chair Lee Anderson’s explanation that he likes the death penalty because “nobody has ever committed a crime after being executed”. the Guardian’s former crime correspondent Duncan Campbell reflects on lessons from the case of Derek Bentley, whose shocking execution in 1953 was a key factor in the end of hanging in Britain. Archie
If you’re finding yourself bored this weekend then, look no further: Graeme Virtue has compiled a list of Channing Tatum’s 10 best films. (I bet you won’t guess what’s number one). Nimo
The idea of imposter syndrome exploded in the 2010s — a catchall pseudo-diagnosis that seemed to encompass just about every feeling of professional or personal inadequacy. In the New Yorker (£), Leslie Jamison delves into the efficacy of the concept and whether, almost 50 years after its formulation, it still is useful. Nimo
Sport
Olympics | Tensions are escalating between Ukraine’s athletes and the International Olympic Committee, with athletes from Ukraine accusing the committee of rewarding Vladimir Putin’s aggression and “kowtowing” to Russia. The anger has come after the IOC’s decision to move away from banning athletes from Russia and Belarus outright, instead exploring ways they can compete under a neutral flag.
Football | After a three year review, the FA has set out details of its revamped “pathway” for female players to reach the top of football in England. After criticism of England’s all-white starting XI last summer, Suzanne Wrack calls the changes “a huge step forward” in efforts to open up football – and explains how the scheme will allow anyone to recommend a girl who might have a future in the game.
Cricket | Australia’s hopes of a breakthrough triumph in India have been left in tatters after the hosts dominated day one of the first Test in Nagpur, with spinner Ravi Jadeja (above) taking 5-42 and bowling out the tourists for 177. Follow day two live here.
The front pages
“Blessings for same-sex couples given CofE approval” – that’s the lead on the Guardian front page, which also displays a smiling Burt Bacharach in black and white. Burt appears on the front of the Daily Express too, while its lead story is “‘Greedy’ banks blasted over savings rates”. “Energy cost warning: bills hike is ‘national act of harm’” – that’s Martin Lewis in the Daily Mirror. “When will the treasury get the message over tax?” – the Daily Mail says cuts are needed after AstraZeneca decided to build a plant in Ireland rather than the UK.
“They need your help now” says Metro, showing another child being pulled from the earthquake rubble in Turkey. “British missiles may hit Crimea” says the Times. “Nicola cops search sea” is the splash in the Sun. “Raab: high standards don’t make you a bully” – the deputy PM defends himself in the Telegraph. The lead story in the Financial Times is “Peltz calls off battle with Disney after claiming objectives met in shake-up”.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
You (Netflix)
One of the trickier aspects of You is its inability to reconcile its contradictions. It adores Joe (Penn Badgley), who can disguise himself completely by putting on a baseball cap; on the other hand, he’s a murderer. Now he is in London, as the show has a pop at the British class system. Don’t look too hard and you will have a lovely time. Rebecca Nicholson
Music
Paramore – This Is Why
Paramore’s sixth studio album offers a slight shift in musical direction, via 00s alt-rock, and the band have mentioned Bloc Party and Foals as influences. It’s not a combination that works without fail, but you’re far more frequently struck by the deftness with which they weave the various aspects of their sound together, as they tackle millennial malaise. Alexis Petridis
Film
Women Talking
Based on a true story, Sarah Polley’s sombre ensemble picture (above) stars Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley and Frances McDormand, among others, as traumatised members of a remote, patriarchal religious colony. It’s a heartfelt new engagement with the #MeToo debate, reminding us that the world of Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale exists more literally than you think. Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
Memories from the Dancefloor
Fresh podcasting voice Damian Kerlin delves into the history of queer nightlife in the UK, in the audio equivalent of an epic evening out. First stop is London’s Heaven, where “naughtiness was in the air”, according to its founder Jeremy Norman. From escapism to reality, it captures the unique experience of a clubbing community. Hannah Verdier
Today in Focus
Could western tanks be decisive in Ukraine?
After months of debate and diplomacy, western tanks are finally heading to Ukraine for what threatens to be a spring escalation in the fighting. But will they be decisive? Dan Sabbagh and Daniel Boffey report
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Purnima Devi Barman grew up in a village on India’s Brahmaputra river, and spent much of her childhood learning about the local wildlife. Her plans to get a PhD were paused however after she learned that the greater adjutant, a rare stork locally known as the hargila, had become endangered.
Barman started teaching villagers, who had been killing the birds about the importance of the greater adjutant in the local ecosystem and eventually won them over. A nesting tree has not been cut down since 2010, Barman says. Perhaps even more impressively, Barman has been able to assemble the “hargila army”, a 10,000 strong group of rural women in the state of Assam who work together to protect the birds.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
