Good morning. Labour has won every election for Westminster or the Senedd, the Welsh parliament, in Caerphilly for more than 100 years. A few hours ago, they finished third in a Senedd byelection, with just 11% of the vote. Instead, the people of Caerphilly will be represented in Cardiff by Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle.
In one sense, the identity of the victor is less significant than who the race was between: Plaid’s closest challenger was Reform, who many thought were the favourites to win. (Indeed, Nigel Farage turned up on polling day – but was nowhere to be seen at the count.) With Labour’s dominance under real pressure for the first time in a generation, these smaller parties of the progressive left and populist right have risen in their stead – and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that this is not a one-off.
