Good morning. I’m Josh Halliday, and I’m standing in for Archie today. We’re going to focus on the catastrophic floods in Pakistan that have left the country facing what its prime minister called the “toughest moment” in its history.
More than 1,100 people have been killed by the “monster monsoon” that has left at least half a million people without homes and a third of the country under water. Pakistan’s government says that in total, more than 33 million people have been affected. A new appeal for aid was launched yesterday in the UK as satellite images were published revealing that the River Indus is now effectively a “long lake” tens of kilometres wide.
Pakistan’s ministers have described the monsoon as a “serious climate catastrophe” and an “apocalyptic crisis”. It comes only 12 years after more than 2,000 people were killed in the deadliest floods in the country’s history. So how does Pakistan recover? And is it possible to prevent catastrophe from striking for a third time? I spoke to Zofeen T Ebrahim, a reporter based in Karachi, to find out. But first, here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Crime | Two in three police force areas in England and Wales are experiencing rising gun crime, with one force facing levels six times higher than a decade ago, Guardian analysis of Home Office data has found.
Downing Street | A cabinet minister and a high-ranking aide at No 10 continued to work in Boris Johnson’s government despite allegations of sexual misconduct against them, according to reports last night.
United States | Joe Biden used a primetime speech to warn that American democracy is in peril from Republican forces loyal to Donald Trump. The speech indicates a newly aggressive strategy ahead of vital midterm elections.
Argentina | A man has been arrested after pointing a gun inches from the face of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina’s vice-president and former president, as she was greeting supporters in Buenos Aires. The gun – which was loaded with five bullets – appeared to jam when the assailant attempted to fire.
Space | Nasa’s $10bn (£8.65bn) James Webb space telescope has revealed a blazing gas giant shrouded in dusty red clouds in unprecedented observations of a planet beyond our solar system.
In depth: A country on its knees
Zofeen T Ebrahim has worked as a journalist in Pakistan for 35 years. She covered the super-floods of 2010, which were described at the time as a less-than-once-in-a-century event. But 12 years later her country is in the grip of an even bigger emergency – at a time when it is least able to cope. The before and after pictures in this piece give a powerful sense of the extent of the damage.
Ebrahim has spent weeks interviewing those caught up in the disaster, including for this piece for the Guardian this week. She spoke to one man, a farmer, who had lost four family members – his son, daughter-in-law and two grandchildren – when they were swept away in Balochistan province. The family had left their home in the middle of the night because the grandchildren were crying for food. They were among millions of Pakistanis struggling to afford basic groceries as the country – like much of the world – feels the effect of global price rises attributed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Our resilience has been weakened because of the pandemic and the Ukraine war, which has sent energy bills shooting up, and food prices are extremely expensive,” Ebrahim told me from her home in the southern port city of Karachi.
Pakistan’s government was grappling with political and economic turmoil before an unusually fierce monsoon season began in June. The country narrowly avoided bankruptcy in July and remains in a state of political flux after the ousting of Imran Khan as prime minister in April, which led to the formation of an unwieldy multiparty government. Yet despite warnings from climate forecasters, and as some parts of Pakistan saw nine times the average amount of rainfall last month, the state’s emergency response “really took a back seat”, said Ebrahim.
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The frontline of the climate catastrophe
Pakistan’s ministers have responded to the criticism by saying that they are “ground zero” of the global climate catastrophe. And they are right. The country is ranked eighth most at risk in the world by the Global Climate Risk Index. The reasons for this are complex and multi-layered – my colleague Damian Carrington wrote about them here.
Put simply, studies have concluded that the south Asian monsoon season has become fiercer and more erratic due to rising temperatures, and Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to these changes. Most of its 221 million population live along the Indus river, which flows throughout the country from the Himalayas in the north. Pakistan is also home to more glaciers than anywhere except the Arctic and Antarctic. As the world gets warmer, the glaciers become flood water.
“This devastation is of course based on climate change,” said Ebrahim. “But it is glaringly clear that the poor planning, incapacity of government institutions and lack of coordination between government and [non-government organisations] are causing problems.”
Pakistan will face more ferocious monsoons in the years to come, she added, but the destruction they cause could be managed with better preparedness, more investment in infrastructure, a renewed crackdown on illegal logging and, perhaps more controversially, honest conversations about contraception in a nation with one of the highest population growth rates for a country of its size: “We need to rein in the population,” Ebrahim said. “We can’t keep hiding behind ‘let’s leave it to God’ – no, God wants us to use our brain.”
In this comment piece, Shozab Raza, an anthropologist at Yale University and editor at Jamhoor magazine, points to another factor: the legacy of imperialism. He argues that the flood’s impact has been “grossly exacerbated” by the way ordinary residents of regions like south Punjab and Balochistan have seen resources exploited in a pattern established under the British empire that continues today.
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An appeal for help
Pakistan’s government has estimated the cost of the floods to be more than $10bn, although this is expected to rise when the scale of the damage becomes more clear. The recovery will take many years.
The United Nations has appealed for $160m in emergency funding to help at least 500,000 people who have been displaced. But countries across the world are dealing with their own domestic crises, caused by the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. There are real fears that debt-laden Pakistan could be left to shoulder the burden of a climate catastrophe caused by other countries.
“In 2010, we estimated the loss to be $10bn. This time the loss will be much, much higher and there is less money in the kitty for everyone globally,” said Ebrahim.
There was a window of opportunity, she added, for Pakistan to lobby for more support at the United Nations climate change conference – Cop27 – being held in Egypt in November. But this would require a concerted diplomatic effort by a government that has barely had a chance to catch its breath since taking office in turbulent scenes in April. Its ability to seize the moment, and perhaps avert the next climate-fuelled disaster, is in serious doubt.
What else we’ve been reading
Elle Hunt’s look at the battle royale between renters in 2022 is terrifying – and totally relatable. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
After the death of BBC presenter Bill Turnbull on Wednesday at 66, Anthony Hayward’s obituary paints a picture of a broadcaster who could do it all, from covering the Lockerbie disaster to hosting Songs of Praise to appearing on Strictly Come Dancing. Charlie Lindlar, production editor, newsletters
Having to come up with a top 20 Julia Roberts films is no mean feat, and Pretty Woman only placing third in Anne Billson’s list is sure to encourage some lively debate – I’m just sad there’s no room for Roberts’ seminal performance as Tink in the widely abused Hook. Toby
For the Guardian’s cathartic Why I Quit series, Megan Nolan is (ironically) funny on giving up standup comedy: “It was clear that it was veering into the territory of above averagely bad, maybe even unforgivable”. Charlie
Terri White’s incisive interview with Helen Hunt is a delightful read on how the Oscar she scooped for As Good As It Gets changed the actor’s life, the truth about Jack Nicholson and the Twister sequel we’ll never get to see. Toby
Sport
Football | Manchester United signed Brazilian striker Antony from Ajax in a deal initially worth €95m (£82m) and Chelsea have bagged Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Barcelona in a whirlwind end to the transfer window. Elsewhere, Liverpool addressed their midfield shortage by signing Arthur Melo on a season-long loan from Juventus.
Tennis | British pair Cameron Norrie and Dan Evans both moved into the third round of the US Open singles last night.
Football | Manchester United beat Leicester 1-0 through a 23rd minute goal from Jadon Sancho. Leicester’s manager Brendan Rodgers complained the club had “needed help” with new players in the transfer window as the club remained bottom of the Premier League table.
The front pages
The Guardian leads on “Revealed: two out of three forces hit by increase in gun crime”, along with a picture of Vladimir Putin paying his respects to Mikhail Gorbachev as he lies in state in Moscow. It’s the same picture on the front of the FT where the lead is “Putin broadens scope of war on ‘anti-Russia enclave’ of Ukraine”. The Times leads with “Covid-style tax breaks for firms facing ruin” but also has a story headlined “Truss parents’ anguish over her rise to top of party”. The Mail goes with “Top lawyer ‘set to deal devastating blow’ to PM party probe” concerning Lord Pannick’s inquiry into events at No 10. The Express also likes that story and has “Now even Boris critic says partygate probe is wrong!”.
The Telegraph’s splash is “GPs given record pay rises in pandemic” and the Scotsman has “Mass refugee plans drawn up for ‘worst case’ influx to Scotland”. The Mirror splashes with “On run: Olivia’s killer”, while the Sun complains about an alleged civil service “jolly” on the PM’s plane: “Serious bad altitude”.
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power (Prime Video)
The new Lord of the Rings series is so rich and gorgeous that it is easy to spend the first episode simply gawping at the landscapes, as we swoosh between the lands of elves and dwarves, humans and harfoots. It makes House of the Dragon look as if it has been cobbled together on Minecraft. – Rebecca Nicholson
Music
Yungblud – Yungblud
Formerly an actor in a Disney teen drama, Dominic “Yungblud” Harrison has long been dogged by questions about his legitimacy as an avatar of punky rebellion. He can write potent lines, but he’s also capable of trite teen poetry. His latest album is a sonic step forward, though Yungblud is still very much a work in progress. – Alexis Petridis
Film
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Some film-makers are so prestigious they get to make studio movies on the basis of one-for-them-and-one-for-me. Mad Max: Fury Road director George Miller has gone further, doing one-for-him-and-one-that’s-even-more-for-him. Tilda Swinton plays a nerdy academic; Idris Elba is the pointy-eared Djinn who comes out of a glass objet she buys in Istanbul. Gentle and heartfelt. – Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
The News Agents
The much-anticipated podcast from Emily Maitlis, Jon Sopel and Lewis Goodall offers smart analysis of the news, but the real brilliance comes from the chemistry of its trio. They are not afraid to laugh, rage and dole out some proper common sense as they mull over the headlines. – Hannah Verdier
Today in Focus
Will Chileans vote for one of the world’s most progressive constitutions?
Chileans go to the polls on Sunday in a referendum that could lead to the country adopting a constitution enshrining gender equality, action on climate change and Indigenous rights, says reporter John Bartlett in Santiago
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Ukraine’s largest literary gathering will partner with the UK’s Hay festival, for what Hay’s CEO Julie Finch has described as an “act of solidarity across art, culture and audiences”. Lviv BookForum will take place in October, with Hay broadcasting the festival’s events online for free. “Using culture and literature is a way we can explain what is going on [here],” says Sofia Chelik, programme director at Lviv BookForum. “It’s our chance to tell our true story and who we are and why we are fighting.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.
