How top five shape up
Novak Djokovic The defending champion is a bit all over the place, beaten in Monte Carlo by Casper Ruud and in Rome by Alejandro Tabilo. Though the slams are different and no one would be surprised to see another miraculous storm to victory, for now at least the goat looks vulnerable.
Jannik Sinner After his monumental win in Melbourne, Sinner will have felt confident of doing something in Paris, only for a hip problem to threaten his participation. He may not yet move well enough to beat the best on clay, but with feet planted no one hits it cleaner.
Carlos Alcaraz Lost to Andrey Rublev in Madrid and hasn’t competed since, after hurting his right forearm in practice. But should he recover in time he has a great chance and will have learned plenty last year, when the pressure of a semi against Djokovic was too much for him to handle.
Alexander Zverev His forehand and second serve undermine a destructive backhand and first delivery, making him an unlikely champion. But you never know because, despite his inability to win when he really needs to and a domestic abuse trial that begins during the tournament, he remains utterly convinced of his own magnificence.
Daniil Medvedev An amazing mover for a man so lanky yet nowhere near an amazing enough mover to win on clay, hence his recent losses to Karen Khachanov and Tommy Paul. Though still good enough to beat anyone on his best day, an early exit seems more likely than a deep run.
Best home hope
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Ugo Humbert is having a great season but his attacking game is not suited to Roland Garros. Mpetshi Perricard, however – though only 20 – has won three Challengers this year, has gone deep in Lyon, and his imposing 6ft 8in frame allows him to hit the ball so hard it verges on cruelty.
Best British hope
Jack Draper Draper’s lefty power-game, though better on hard courts and grass, is nasty to face on any surface. Adding Wayne Ferreira to his team on a trial basis, primarily to help with the mental side of things, might just give him the focus he needs to turn from pretender into contender.
Best American hope
Tommy Paul There’s not much competition, the US contingent being generally happier on hard courts and grass. But Paul is at his best on slow surfaces, losing narrowly in the Rome semi-finals after a run in which he beat Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz, and at 27 should be hitting his peak.
Big name most likely to crash out early
Daniil Medvedev Given their struggles with form and fitness, the top-ranked players all look vulnerable. But the slow surface lessens the impact of Medvedev’s serve while his desire to hit flat balls is far less effective on clay than on other surfaces, the longer, slower rallies demanding greater variety of slices and spins.
Outsider with best chance of glory
Rafael Nadal Don’t laugh: with 32 seeds this is a tricky slot to fill with the obvious choices – the Chileans Nicolás Jarry and Alejandro Tabilo – in at 16 and 24 respectively. Which leaves us with the, er, 14-time champion, who meets Zverev in round one and arrives in Paris with no form of which to speak … but relatively reasonable pedigree.
One to watch
Stan Wawrinka At 39 the 2015 champ remains a joy, his three grand slam titles won thanks to a willingness to attack everything and a backhand that belongs in the Louvre. No one has ever played as brilliantly as regularly (having arrived on court looking as if they’ve come straight from the club) and if nothing else, his first-round match with Andy Murray should be a banger.
