While President Emmanuel Macron was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump on his election victory, France remains wary of the United States president-elect, given his rhetoric against Europe, his plan to impose import tariffs and his stance on the war in Ukraine. Even though some European far-right leaders celebrated his win, France's National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen remains sceptical.
A recent poll shows that 62 percent of French people are "concerned" by Trump's win, and eight out of 10 have a negative image of him.
His re-election was not as much of a surprise as his win in 2016 "but it was sort of a disappointment", says Celia Belin, head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
"The French had to realise that Americans, by a substantial margin, picked Donald Trump – someone who feels very foreign to European interests, very aggressive, very bullish."
Listen to an interview with Celia Belin in the Spotlight on France podcast, listen here:
European unity
Trump has questioned the US's commitment to NATO, and has threatened to impose on tariffs on all imports.
While so far he has detailed the tariffs he would impose on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese goods, he has not mentioned Europe – but given the US is the continent's largest export market for many goods, the impact of any tariffs would likely be severe.
France, under Macron, will continue to look out for European interests, Belin says, stressing that European unity is key – more so than ever, with the French President's party in an unstable coalition government,
"The French know – and the rest of Europe knows – that they will only be strong as long as they're working together to find collective positions and agree on ways to [be persuasive], or retaliate against some of Trump's decisions," she adds.
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Muted congratulations
On Europe's far-right, while leaders including Viktor Orban of Hungary enthusiastically congratulated Trump on his win, the reaction at that end of the political spectrum in Francehas been more circumspect. This stands in contrast to 2016, when RN leader Marine Le Pen was the first to congratulate Trump, even before the race had been called.
Following this year's election Le Pen wrote, rather more soberly: "Americans have freely chosen their president. This new political era should contribute to the strengthening of bilateral relations and the pursuit of constructive dialogue and cooperation on the international stage."
Le Pen did not demonstrate support for Trump during his election campaign, and appears to be distancing herself from him – at least in terms of style, if not substance.
Trump hosts Orban at Mar-a-Lago raising European concerns
Differing approaches
According to Belin, Trump’s win "could appear to validate some of the far right’s theses, both in France and in other European countries, which is that the public is demanding tougher immigration policies, that there is a rejection of progressive policies, and a criticism of the elite".
But in France, where the far-right RN holds more power than ever before, the party has been taking a different approach.
"The National Rally has been trying to legitimise itself by appearing more responsible, by toning down some of the rhetoric, by abandoning its more radical positions on Europe, for example," says Belin, pointing out that this approach is very different from Trump’s anti-establishment bombastic style.
Support for the far right may be at an all-time high in France, but disapproval of Trump is higher, and RN appears to have decided – for now – that Trump’s approach is "too disruptive, too extreme, too outrageous".
The results of July’s snap parliamentary election in France showed voters shying away from giving the RN a mandate, and Belin stresses that this was linked to the fact that some candidates "were too extreme or too incompetent or not ready to govern" – again, the opposite of what is happening in the US, which she says has elected "a class of incompetent, loyal disruptors".
Proof in the policies
In the end, it is his policies that could determine how the far right views Trump. If the US imposes tariffs on European goods, as it did during Trump’s first term in office, when European steel and aluminum exports were targeted, Europeans could suffer.
"Some of the policies of the Trump administration will directly negatively impact the European working class, or the French working class – which these [far-right] groups are supposedly trying to protect, and this will do a lot to unite everyone against the US," Belin says.
"I think this fascination for Trump will be short-lived when our farmers and our industries are hit by tariffs, when we see disruption coming from the US deregulation that works against us. All of this, I think, will put a dampener on support for Trump."
Listen to an interview with Celia Belin in the Spotlight on France podcast, episode 119, here.
