The Israel-Hamas war shows no signs of abating – three months on – as regional players are sucked into the fray despite a flurry of diplomatic responses. As Middle Eastern neighbours tread a fine line, France has warned Iran and its proxies to steer clear of the fight. RFI examines Paris's role as a potential peacemaker.
French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week agreed to seek steps to avoid a wider Middle East war following strikes in Lebanon and Iraq.
Israel carried out an air strike that killed deputy Hamas leader Saleh al-Aruri in the Lebanese capital Beirut on Tuesday, while an American strike killed a pro-Iran commander in Iraq on Thursday.
In a phonecall, the two top diplomats reportedly discussed the importance of measures to prevent the conflict in Gaza from expanding, including affirmative steps to de-escalate tensions in the West Bank and to avoid escalation in Lebanon and Iran.
This is familiar rhetoric from two Western allies whose diplomacy has failed since the onset of the conflict at the beginning of October – and it rings hollow for the people of Gaza.
❝Coordination between 🇫🇷 and the 🇺🇸 is constant. With @SecBlinken, we reaffirmed once again our common objectives — preserving freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, preventing an escalation in the Middle East and ensuring humanitarian access for #Gaza’s civilian population.❞ https://t.co/ZhsZC2AtOS
— France Diplomacy 🇫🇷🇪🇺 (@francediplo_EN) January 5, 2024
Over the past two months, French president Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly called on Iran, Hezbollah, and other groups affiliated with Tehran to “refrain from adding to regional tensions and refrain from any operational support for Hamas”.
It would appear that Macron's pleas have largely been ignored, despite France's historic influence in the region since the early 20th century.
For Paris-based lawyer and Middle East defence expert, Ardavan Amir Aslani, those behind the escalating conflict in the region have turned their back on France's overtures as an independent peace broker.
"Macron is trying to present France as it was in the past under de Gaulle – as an honest broker, a powerful independent party, who carries some power and was able to act independently to bring parties together end to end conflict," Aslani says.
However, in order to do that, you need to have some muscle – which he says France lacks.
"After October 7, [US President] Biden dropped by in Israel, where [the Americans] said, 'don't add tension and don't get involved in a war with Israel'.
"[Biden] had two nuclear carrier groups behind him. You're talking about nearly 200 aeroplanes, thousands of soldiers and Marines ... he had power, he had muscle – France does not carry that kind of power."
While France may attempt to enact "goodwill diplomacy" in the Middle East, it is "totally deprived" of the military weight needed to back up that position, Aslani adds.
Stalemate and the two-state solution
According the French foreign ministry's official line: "France considers that the conflict can only be resolved through the solution of two states living side-by-side in peace and security, in accordance with international law."
Again, this would appear to be part of the decades-old "embassy speak" of not wanting to shake Western powers' diplomatic status-quo regarding the foundation of a Palestinian state.
Many observers believe that in the run-up to the crisis, Macron paid only lip service to France's official support of the Palestinian cause.
"That is correct – just like entire Western world – which is pro a two-state solution ... but the reality is, once you make that verbal declaration, what do you do to implement it? Aslani asks.
"Do you sanction anyone to force them to the negotiation table? Do you send a specially designated individual in charge of negotiations? Do you act proactively in diplomacy? They've done nothing."
While seeking to play the role of an honest broker, France was the only country in Western Europe which actually prohibited any pro-Palestinian demonstrations.
"So France is in no position, to act as a neutral party that is motivated by considerations for peace brokering," Aslani says.
#Lebanonnews: The #EuropeanUnion stated that the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, will visit #Lebanon from the 5 to 7 of January to discuss the Israeli-Lebanese borders and the importance of avoiding regional escalation.https://t.co/tzBZm2t68p
— LBCI Lebanon English (@LBCI_News_EN) January 5, 2024
Shadow of Sahel failure
Although France remains one of the most pro-active European Union member states in the region, its political clout has faded.
Little also can be expected from the EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell's visit to Lebanon this Friday and Saturday, to discuss the deteriorating situation on the Israel-Lebanon border.
And while Paris tries to leverage its historical credentials in the region, the unravelling conflict comes in the shadow of the collapse of French influence in West Africa and the Sahel.
France's shrinking international importance is also proving a major stumbling block for French diplomacy in the Middle East.
"France, unfortunately, is in decline," Aslani exlpains. "And [Macron] is presiding over the decline of France ... he has done nothing muscular anywhere, in order for him to re-establish France as a viable power.
"France has unfortunately been kicked out of just about every French-speaking African nation, with the exception of Gabon ... Senegal for the moment and maybe Guinea-Conakry."
Clumsy policy
French loss of influence didn't happen in a void, and France's attitude and clumsy reaction to crises has a long history.
"France was the first nation to leave Damascus after the uprising of the Syrian people against the Assad regime," says Aslani, adding that Paris lags behind others in trying to re-enter the political arena in the country.
"Today, Syria has been admitted back to the Arab League, all the Arab countries have opened embassies there – France is a big loser over there."
France' erroneous attitude towards conflicts in Muslim countries has been followed by mishap after mishap, and Africa is the latest one.
"You're not looking at a country that has the image of a credible power, with global influence. You're looking at a country who is saying goodbye and handing over the military base that they occupied to the Wagner group in Niger," Aslani says.
As it stands on the international stage, France doesn't have "the mental keenness nor the acumen to position itself as a credible negotiator in any conflict today."
So if France no longer has the means, credibility nor authority to get results in the Middle East, does Paris recognise that that for French diplomacy to succeed, it needs support?
Aslani believes so, and believes France understands the country's diminished position on the world stage – even if the government hasn't acknowledged this publicly.
"France tries to pretend that it is still in the glory of the de Gaulle era, leading an independent policy and with the means to enforce that policy," he says.
"But the reality is, it just doesn't have the means ... it doesn't have the funds to go it alone."
Full Interview: French diplomacy in the cross-fire, as Middle East conflict unravels - Ardavan Amir Aslani
