A strange old Six Nations for Wales will end in Paris on Saturday with few expecting them to offer much of a challenge to France after the events at Twickenham last weekend.
In fact, even if Les Blues hadn’t dished out a 53-10 seeing-to to England, Warren Gatland’s side would likely still have been hopelessly unfancied to trouble the hosts in Paris.
For this year’s edition of the tournament has largely passed Wales by, notwithstanding their win over Italy.
Read more: WRU plan new 'elite' eight-team league above Welsh Premiership as regions to nominate sides
Once Ireland walked all over Gatland’s team in Cardiff in round one, the depth of Wales’ problems became truly apparent to even the most myopic and since then it’s appeared to be a case of assessing players for the World Cup. Few have protested, but Wales barely fired a shot against Ireland, Scotland and England. The effort against Italy was better, albeit the Welsh defence looked vulnerable pretty much every time the Azzurri put a move together.
It’s all been a bit underwhelming.
But that’s where Wales are, in a state of transition at the wrong time, just six months out from a World Cup. It’s lamentable in so many ways, with questions fairly to be asked about how Wales have been left so far behind. At U20s level, Wales have lost their last seven Six Nations games in a row and are bottom of this year’s table. Why have France and Ireland forged so far ahead of the rest there? What’s being done to address Welsh deficiencies?
Issues for another day, perhaps.
Let's return to the matter in hand. Can Wales, with 10 Lions in their starting lineup and one more on the bench in Leigh Halfpenny, pull a performance out of the fire and compete with France?
Matches are not played on paper, of course.
Here are the head to heads.
Thomas Ramos 8 v 7 Louis Rees-Zammit
Ramos doesn’t always look the smoothest player on the pitch — one writer described his play as ranging from the sublime to the scruffy against Ireland — but ask England how effective he can be. He was electric last weekend and will ruthlessly punish loose kicking.
How Rees-Zammit plays will be intriguing. It goes without saying he needs to be on top of the basics, but will Wales give him a licence to thrill? When he faced Georgia as a No. 15 in November, he was eclipsed by his opposite number Davit Niniashvili in the free-spirit stakes as Rees-Zammit played with caution and struggled to find space. It seemed a waste of attacking talent. What’s it to be this weekend? You can read more here about his display as last line of defence against Argentina.
Damian Penaud 8 v 6 Josh Adams
Penaud is a wing who can destroy a defence that is less than wide awake. A world-class finisher, he is good enough to take advantage of quarter-chances and can contest in the air. One work-on his defence, though, with seven tackles missed over four matches.
If ever a player could do with a big game, it’s Adams. He played well enough in defence against Italy, an aspect of his game that means a lot to coaches, but he also failed to convert a chance he would have snapped up in his sleep in 2019, the year when he scored 10 tries in capped matches. Confidence or lack of it may be an issue; a touchdown would go a long way to sorting that problem out.
Gael Fickou 8 v 7 George North
Maybe Fickou should get an extra mark for his consistent excellence. It appears not to matter a jot to him whether his opponents are Ireland or Indonesia: he always delivers. A menace with ball in hand, he hits hard in defence and makes good decisions. There are not many better centres around.
North hasn’t really fired in this Six Nations, with the big man absent from Wales’ starting line-up for the past two games, but he is a player whose hard-running commands respect among opponents. Stade de France would be a good place for him to return to form from a Welsh perspective.
Jonathan Danty 8 v 7 Nick Tompkins
Danty looks as if he’s been using a chest expander since the age of two. He has immense upper body strength and his low centre of gravity makes him difficult to stop. He’s also a force at the breakdown.
In Tompkins, he has an opponent who will never fail for lack of effort. His busy style may not please every connoisseur of inside-centre play, but he plays with so much energy it can sometimes seem as if he’s sneaked a twin brother onto the pitch, so ubiquitous is the Saracen.
Ethan Dumortier 7 v 6 Rio Dyer
Basketball fan Dumortier slam-dunked the Dragons in Newport with two tries in the EPCR Challenge Cup last season and is increasingly seen as one of the sharpest finishers in the Top 14. At 6ft 3in he is good in the air and he has broken 19 tackles in this Six Nations. For context, Dyer, Josh Adams, Louis Rees-Zammit and Alex Cuthbert have broken 15 tackles between them.
Dyer has had his moments in attack and chased and covered well against Italy, even if he missed too much in defence. He’s a young player Wales are trying to develop and his best is yet to come.
Romain Ntamack 8 v 7 Dan Biggar
A contrast in styles — on one side there’s Ntamack, a player who can seem as relaxed as a Sunday morning stroll but his casual demeanour can be deceptive: he can ruin a defence in the blink of an eye. On the other side, there’s Biggar, all passion and intensity. If it hasn’t been a Six Nations to remember for the 33-year-old, with injury ruling him out of the Italy game after a bench appearance against England, he is a player who can impact matches in big way
Antoine Dupont 9 v 7 Rhys Webb
The temptation is to give Dupont a 10 as the best player in the world. There again, he has been turned over nine times in this Six Nations, made seven handling errors and given away three penalties. On the other side of the ledger, there’s barely room for what he’s done. Kicking out of hand brilliantly off both feet against England, he also came up with a try and an assist, didn’t miss a tackle and caused havoc with his running and ability to scan and see possibilities that others hadn’t even considered.
Webb will need to be at his very best to compete.
But here’s the thing: he will relish the challenge. He did when he faced a peak-era Aaron Smith back in the day and he is capable of keeping the French defence honest.
Who will win France v Wales? Have your say here
Cyril Baille 8 v 6 Wyn Jones
Baille is a force of nature, a prop who has carried, passed and offloaded in this Six Nations more than his team’s No. 8, Gregory Alldritt — and he’s not far behind Alldritt in the tackling stakes, either. He is changing the way people think about the role of the prop and he has yet to concede a scrum penalty in this campaign.
Jones at his 2021 peak seemed to be taking his game into the stratosphere, but injuries have bedevilled him and he’s searching for his best form. He did carry purposefully early on against Italy, but Wales need him to be at his best in all areas in Paris.
Julien Marchand 7 v 7 Ken Owens
Marchand is known as a hooker who plays for turnovers, but he’s managed only two steals over the first four rounds. He is also renowned for enjoying carrying, but Owens has got his mitts on the ball more often and taken play forward more frequently as well as making more metres.
The Sheriff has also been showing good physicality, with only four more players in the tournament making more dominant tackles than his five. If Wales’ lineout hasn’t always been bang on the money, nor has France’s set-piece.
Uini Atonio 7 v 6 Tomas Francis
At 6ft 5in and 22st 7lb, Atonio is a mountain of a man who takes some shifting at scrum-time. He likes to carry, too, but hasn’t managed many runs in this championship. Nor has Francis, but the Wales prop has defended well with 30 tackles, three of them dominant affairs, and just one miss. Wales could do with Wyn Jones tiring Atonio in the scrums. Gatland will hope for more from Francis as a carrier.
Thibaud Flament 8 v 6 Adam Beard
Flament was extraordinary against England, powering around the park while not neglecting his core duties. When he plays like that, France appear to have an extra back rower on the pitch — perhaps even two extra back rowers. So far in this championship, he’s made 67 tackles, a tally bettered by just one other player, Matt Fagerson of Scotland.
Beard had a much better game for Wales when they played Italy in Rome, contributing some trademark work at mauls that helped Warren Gatland’s side no end. There was also a lineout steal and turnovers. He needs to carry more if he is to match Flament. It’s a tall order, but he’ll want to end the championship on a high.
Romain Taofifenua 7 v 7 Alun Wyn Jones
At 6ft 7in and 20st Taofifenua comes off the same shelf as the man he replaces, Paul Willemse, who picked up an injury against England. The Lyon player operates on the edge and has given away a penalty every 24 minutes on average in this Six Nations, but he doesn’t miss many tackles and he challenges for turnovers.
Jones has been used on and off of late but was better than some of his reviews suggested against England. Like Beard, he needs to make more ground with ball in hand, with the game going that way for locks today. That said, he is someone who doesn’t give up and is a player who will relish an attritional encounter. If he only tends to last for an hour at Test level before giving way nowadays, he is still capable of making a strong contribution.
Francois Cros 7 v 6 Aaron Wainwright
Cros is a unit who complemented Ollivon and Alldritt against England, carrying and tackling with purpose. He adds balance to the French back row and will be grafting when others have tired.
It’s a big game for Wainwright, one he needs to nail to improve his chances of featuring at the World Cup. A decent carrier who is capable of piling up a double-figure haul of tackles, he’ll support Welsh attacks but Wales need him to be on top of the core elements of a blindside’s role as well.
Charles Ollivon 8 v 8 Justin Tipuric
Tipuric was once more renowned for his play with ball in hand and in the wide channels, but it’s Ollivon who has been catching the eye in that respect of late. When he carries, he invariably eats up ground and he relishes joining attacks. He has an appetite for defence, too, but he does miss tackles and he has conceded five turnovers.
His direct opponent on Saturday, by contrast, has largely been error-free in defence in this tournament, with a 98 percent tackle completion rate, three possession steals and six dominant hits. He has also been Wales’ go-to man at lineouts.
Gregory Alldritt 8 v 8 Taulupe Faletau
A battle between two top-drawer No. 8s here.
Alldritt rocketed back to form against England after a relatively quiet start to the tournament. The key for Wales is to take away the platform he has to work off, but it’s easier said than done.
Faletau banged in another rock-solid game against Italy, blighted only by the odd missed tackle and an error at the back of a dodgy Welsh scrum. Saturday will be his hundredth Wales appearance and he will want to do well. He is a player who shines not just when his team is going well, but also in adversity. Wales need him to be at his best in Paris.
REPLACEMENTS
France 7 v 6 Wales
France’s front row replacements hit scrum problems against England with tighthead Sipili Falatea having a particularly tough time, albeit he is a useful breakdown operator. Hooker Peato Mauvaka is a force around the field and wins turnovers, while in the backs Melvyn Jaminet is one of the most accurate goalkickers in France. A French conditioning coach has said Yoram Moefana has “monstrous power in relation to his weight", a player you probably don't want to have running at you late on, then.
With George North and Louis Rees-Zammit promoted to the starting lineup, Wales’ backline firepower on the bench has been a shade reduced, but Leigh Halfpenny remains as dependable as can be, Dillon Lewis and Gareth Thomas did well against Italy, Tommy Reffell can dominate breakdowns and Daf Jenkins is a player on the up.
TOTALS
France 123, Wales 107
READ MORE:
Wales players' futures unconfirmed almost a month after Wales v England strike called off
Wales warned of 70-point thrashing but coach backs young duo after issues
Justin Tipuric's speech to Wales' players and the celebration routine that brought back smiles
Wales duo set to reunite in England as they leave Welsh rugby
